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Security Concerns in a post-Solution Cyprus

Propose and discuss specific solutions to aspects of the Cyprus Problem

Security Concerns in a post-Solution Cyprus

Postby Alexandros Lordos » Mon Jan 24, 2005 9:33 am

This is the continuation of a discussion I was having with Insan and Mehmet in another thread ...

In case we get to a solution, who do you think will try to undermine it? Is violence and bloodshed a strong possibility? How can we protect ourselves? Will people feel secure enough to live anywhere in Cyprus, or will GCs huddle together in the GC constituent state and TCs in the TC constituent state? And finally, how should a future Peace Plan take all these factors into account?
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Postby mehmet » Mon Jan 24, 2005 9:56 am

I think there are people within both communities who are the mirror image of each other and will always reject collaboration with anything bi-communal. It doesn't suit their historical perspective to think anything positive about each other. In part this can be undermined by the rest of us working together and in doing so isolate and defeat their arguements. In terms of the Turkish side, if Turkey supports the settlement then these people will lose their only source of support. The rest of us Turkish Cypriots know this and I think it is why very few of us will go agaist Turkey. On the Greek Cypriot side I think you have a problem with some of your priests and others who have a racist mentality towards anyone non-Christian.
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Postby -mikkie2- » Mon Jan 24, 2005 12:28 pm

On the Greek Cypriot side I think you have a problem with some of your priests and others who have a racist mentality towards anyone non-Christian.


And may I ask on what basis you come to this conclusion?

The south is not a sea of christian fundamentalism. There are many people from different religious groups and countries living and working in the south.

And there is no discrimiation against the GC's (christians) living in the north I suppose. They live in 'perfect harmony' with the Turkish settlers in Karpasia don't they!
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Postby mehmet » Mon Jan 24, 2005 2:34 pm

Hi Mikkie,

there was a quote by one bishop that was racist. The Orthodox heirarchy sees itself as the defender of Hellenism and they would be sure to link up with nationalists within your community to undermine a bi-communal society if they felt unhappy with proposed solution. Do you remember how much Makarios did to include Turkish Cypriots within his vision of Cyprus?
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Postby -mikkie2- » Mon Jan 24, 2005 3:02 pm

Well, I am afraid I do not share your sentiments.

The priests have little influence in politics these days. You cannot compare now with 40 years ago when you were faced with a population that was not as well educated and was more influenced by religious leaders.

A quote from a bishop that was racist does not mean that everyone in the south will believe or agree with him. If you think that sermons in the churches are about how much we hate the Turks then you are very wrong. The most you hear about is of reconcilliation and the wish for unifying our country together with the TC's.
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Postby brother » Mon Jan 24, 2005 3:07 pm

WE WOULD EXPECT NOTHING LESS, than peace and loving to be preached in church.
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Postby insan » Mon Jan 24, 2005 3:53 pm

In case we get to a solution, who do you think will try to undermine it?



The dissatisfied groups of Cypriots, together with their mainland backers and foreigners would undermine it. The expectations of these groups are antipodal to each other. Their stance towards each other is well known by all of us. It is completely related with their retrospection and right wing psychology.

On which key issues these groups have antipodal expectations:

- Majority rule vs Political equality
- Sovereignity of Constituent States vs Supremacy of Central Authority.
- Share of the economically most productive lands: Coastlines, investment areas
- Intervention rights and guarantorship of foreign powers
- Temporary and permenant restrictions

The issues above are all full of dynamites ready to be exploded by these groups. Even having one of the "boxes" been exploded by any of these groups may cause a chain reaction to explode the other boxes full of dynimites.

Could the highly probable to appear threat arised from these groups be surpassed by concerned local and central authorities, security forces and civil initiatives? I don't think that surpassing the undermining actions of these groups would stop them; on the contrary would push them to get organized for underground armed struggle.


So the question is, can the antipodal expectations of these self-interest groups be satisfied one way or another with a magic solution plan?

This seems to me impossible.


Is violence and bloodshed a strong possibility?


As long as the expectations and needs of these self-interest groups haven't been satisfied violence and as a consequence of violence the bloodshed seems a strong possibility to me.


How can we protect ourselves?


In short term, we could protect ourselves by playing the hypocrites. I mean pretending that we give support or sympathize any of these groups but in the long run, there would be no way out to protect ourselves from the big drop.

Will people feel secure enough to live anywhere in Cyprus


I don't think so...

or will GCs huddle together in the GC constituent state and TCs in the TC constituent state?


Although this would be meaningless in a united Cyprus nevertheless it would be the inevitable consequence of the conflict among dissatisfied groups of Cypriots.


And finally, how should a future Peace Plan take all these factors into account?



In my opinion starting as a confederation and slowly, slowly working to evolve it into federation then to a unitary state would be the most secure and feasible proposal to solve the Cyprus problem because of the zealots of both sides.

As long as the zealots of both sides haven't changed their mentality or erased from the scene of Cyprus; there will be no peace for the rest of the Cypriots.

Is it possible to stimulate these hardliner zealots to come closer for a sincere handshake for reconciliation? I don't think so but at least that is what the rest of the Cypriots should do. In my imaginery opinion, if the civil initiatives and media focus upon to reconcile the zealots of both sides, probably they would accomplish this "mission impossible".

A few months ago I've suggested a reconciliation meeting for particularly the ex-members of Volkan, Eoka, TMT and EOKA-B; of course political wings of these paramilitary groups should join this organization.


What do you think? Is it just a dream or we are able to force them to come together for a sincere handshake? :D


I think such an occasion would pour a huge positive energy upon our hopes to reunite Cyprus and live freely in a peacful co-existence. Of course if they wouldn't turn the reconciliation meeting into a war when they all have come together. :lol:
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Postby Piratis » Mon Jan 24, 2005 4:59 pm

It is either

1) We are equal citizens of one country (one TC = one GC)

0r

2) We citizens of two separate countries (TCs get 18% of land, GCs 82%)

If double standards exist sooner or later the explosion will happen.

We don't need a banana republic. If TCs want to join us to create an independent democratic European republic then they are more than welcome. If they don't, then they should return some land to us, keep the 18% and do whatever they want by themselves.
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Postby Alexandros Lordos » Mon Jan 24, 2005 5:48 pm

insan wrote:In my opinion starting as a confederation and slowly, slowly working to evolve it into federation then to a unitary state would be the most secure and feasible proposal to solve the Cyprus problem because of the zealots of both sides.


Insan, could you explain what you mean by "starting with confederation"? How exactly do you understand the meaning of "confederation" in this context? And how would it "gradually evolve to a Federation and then to a Unitary State"? Would this evolution be automatic after a certain number of years, or would we need to renegotiate from scratch?
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Postby turkcyp » Mon Jan 24, 2005 5:52 pm

Piratis wrote:It is either

1) We are equal citizens of one country (one TC = one GC)

0r

2) We citizens of two separate countries (TCs get 18% of land, GCs 82%)


I take option number (2). Side by side is better than living together under the conditions you ask for.....

insan wrote:In my opinion starting as a confederation and slowly, slowly working to evolve it into federation then to a unitary state would be the most secure and feasible proposal to solve the Cyprus problem...


This is a dream. I think I saw it last night around 3 am....

If you start with confederation, you can never stay with confederation. You either move on to federation if people are willing to or you continue to partitition. So lets not kid ourselves...

Let's find a solution right now, at once. Either we decide that it will be a federation forever (because I seriously suspect that a unitary state would get more than 10-20% in the referandum in TC side) or two seperate countries....

No need to waste our time trying another third option of confederation. It is dead end (plus I really think this will not get more than 10-20% in the GC side as well.)

Take care
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