Talat wins - smaller majority than predicited
 Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2005 6:45 pm |
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| cannedmoose |
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| brother wrote: |
| Will look out to see if i can get my hands on those stats as well moosey. |
Cool, thanks bro'  |
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| Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2005 6:46 pm |
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| brother |
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| Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2005 6:51 pm |
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| cannedmoose |
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Wow Bro' 
You're better than Reuters!
Interesting that the only place Talat didn't get a sweeping majority was Iskele... 44.1%
Also interesting that if you take into account all of the non-voters, Talat's mandate is just over 37% of the electorate. Doesn't make it less legitimate, but it's a concerning sign that more people weren't energised to vote... could be fatigue after 4 votes in the last year or two. |
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Last edited by cannedmoose on Mon Apr 18, 2005 7:03 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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| Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2005 6:55 pm |
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| cannedmoose |
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Can anyone quickly translate what these headings mean please?
Sandıktan Çıkan Oy Pusulası Sayısı
122. Maddeye Göre Yakılaran Oy Pusulası Sayısı
Kullanılmadığından İptal Edilerek Saklanan Oy Pus.Say.
Geçerli Oy Sayısı
Geçersiz Oy Sayısı
Most grateful!
Moose  |
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| Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2005 7:19 pm |
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| metecyp |
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| Quote: |
| Sandıktan Çıkan Oy Pusulası Sayısı |
Total number of ballots.
| Quote: |
| 122. Maddeye Göre Yakılaran Oy Pusulası Sayısı |
Invalid number of ballots (due to 122th article) (?)
| Quote: |
| Kullanılmadığından İptal Edilerek Saklanan Oy Pus.Say. |
Number of ballots cancelled due to not being used
Valid ballots
[/quote]Geçersiz Oy Sayısı[/quote]
Invalid ballots |
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| Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2005 8:18 pm |
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| cannedmoose |
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| Thanks mete, much obliged |
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| Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2005 9:54 pm |
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| erolz |
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| cannedmoose wrote: |
P.P.S. In TC elections, it's always interesting to look at the regional break-down as well since you tend to get wide variations where you have concentrations of Turkish citizens from the mainland. Any sign of these? If they're in Turkish, that's fine as stats are easy to read regardless. |
Do you have any evidence to support this canned? From the studies I have seen it appears that the settlers by an large vote in very similar proprtions to non settlers. |
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| Posted: Tue Apr 19, 2005 2:20 am |
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| cannedmoose |
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I've just been doing some analysis on the results and found some interesting results when you look at the breakdown by district.
Of the 577 districts, the candidates achieved the following:
(DP) Dr. Mustafa Şenol Arabacıoğlu (6 districts won, 0 by overall majority)
(YP) Nuri Çevikel (19 districts won, 4 by overall majority)
(CTP) Mehmet Ali Talat (532 districts won, 419 by overall majority)
(UBP) Dr. Derviş Eroğlu (19 districts won, 2 by overall majority)
Lefkosa, Girne and Guzelyurt were virtual walkovers for Talat, with only 1 or 2 districts won by others. The results from Gazimagusa and Iskele are more interesting.
In Gazimagusa, YP had particular concentrations of support and won 14 of the 147 districts, achieving more than 50% in 3 of these (GÜVERCİNLİK, GAZİMAĞUSA-ANADOLU MAH, GAZİMAĞUSA-HARİKA MAH). UBP also won 8 districts.
In Iskele, the results were even more interesting. On the overall figures, it was the only region where Talat failed to achieve more than 50% of the vote, winning just under three-quarters of the district and less than 40% by an overall majority. DP won 4 of the districts, YP 5 (YEDİKONUK won with more than 50% of the vote), and UBP won 7 districts (ERGAZİ, ESENKÖY and KURTULUŞ by an overall majority). Talat's relative lack of success reflects his poor showing there in the 2003 Parliamentary elections.
A number of points come out of this:
1. Despite a low percentage of the vote, in district terms YP outperformed UBP, pointing to a concentration of their support in certain districts. Is there any explanation for the pockets of success of YP in particular in Gazimagusa?
2. Why does Talat fail to command support in Iskele region? Is this a region with a particular concentration of settlers, or has it traditionally supported UBP?
3. By this analysis, if the election was conducted in British fashion (i.e. first past the post), Talat would have achieved a staggering victory over his rivals.
4. Does anyone have any information about the particular districts where opposition parties scored highly?
Anyway, not sure if this is of interest to anyone but me. Must get some sleep, my eyes hurt after that 
If anyone has comments on these points, please let me know. |
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