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FINAL RESULTS OF BICOMMUNAL STUDY

Propose and discuss specific solutions to aspects of the Cyprus Problem

Postby cannedmoose » Tue Jun 14, 2005 11:37 pm

Alexandros Lordos wrote:
boulio wrote:Alex will this survey be sent to anyone of the concerned parties involved in finding a solution?ROC,TURKEY,GREECE,"TRNC",GB?


Oh, it's been "flying through e-mail", all day today! :)


Hopefully you'll get the call from Kofi once he's finished keeping the peace between Blair and Chirac... :lol:
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Postby Yiannis » Wed Jun 15, 2005 12:08 am

Well done Alex.
Finally someone that is not just words.
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Postby MicAtCyp » Wed Jun 15, 2005 4:35 pm

Alexandre,

Sygharitiria. I promise I will honour your work by reading it carefully.
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Postby demetriou_74 » Wed Jun 15, 2005 4:54 pm

visited your website and viewed your slide shows. intresting reading. i will re-read your post to get a better understanding. well done
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Postby Kifeas » Wed Jun 15, 2005 7:50 pm

Alexandros,
Congratulations for the very professionally carried out and presented survey.

I have a question on something that struck me reading it. Second question under the section “Property rights,” refers to a territorial arrangement on the basis of 80%-20%. In this question, 58.3% of the TCs answered positively. Would it mean that they didn’t really understand all the implications of such a solution? What I mean is that under such a scenario, the TC community will have to give back, besides Morfou and Lefka, one of the other two main towns (i.e. either Kyrenia or Famagusta.)
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Postby Viewpoint » Wed Jun 15, 2005 7:57 pm

Alexandros,
Congratulaions for all the hard work very interesting results.
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Postby Alexandros Lordos » Wed Jun 15, 2005 9:06 pm

Kifeas wrote:Alexandros,
Congratulations for the very professionally carried out and presented survey.

I have a question on something that struck me reading it. Second question under the section “Property rights,” refers to a territorial arrangement on the basis of 80%-20%. In this question, 58.3% of the TCs answered positively. Would it mean that they didn’t really understand all the implications of such a solution? What I mean is that under such a scenario, the TC community will have to give back, besides Morfou and Lefka, one of the other two main towns (i.e. either Kyrenia or Famagusta.)


I don't see why it would be necessary to give back Kyrenia or Famagusta. It all depends on how you would draw up the border. Also, the TCs could give up Karpasia peninsula, and that would bring their land down by a few percent points.
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Postby -mikkie2- » Wed Jun 15, 2005 10:04 pm

Alexandre,

A very good piece of work. Just goes to show that the people are far less stubborn than the politicians.

A question - what will you be doing with the results of this study? Wiil you be making presentations to various interested bodies? Perhaps something similar to the Wilton Park Conference?

A quick conclusion I make from your study is that the settlers are the biggest stumbling block to a solution. If the settlers will form a big % of the voters in the north at a future referendum then perhaps things may not be so rosy. Although your study did look at how the settler issue could be handled, the fact that they will most probably be given a right to vote in a future referendum then clearly they will have a big influnce in the final result.
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Postby metecyp » Wed Jun 15, 2005 10:46 pm

Alexandre,

First of all, good work. I hope these type of studies keep coming so we can get a better picture of what people think rather than what T-Pap or Talat thinks. I hope you get the chance to explain your results on both sides.

I looked at the charts briefly and here's my initial reaction.

It seems like the main reasons for GCs to want a solution is to allow refugees to return to their ancestral homes and to put an end to the presence of the Turkish army, which is not surprising.

Some answers of GCs were odd. For example, 82% of GCs said that the primary motive for a solution is to improve the economic condition, 87% of GCs said the primary motive is to have a stronger voice in the international community, and 87% said the benefits of EU membership is the primary motive. I found these kind of surprising since GCs already enjoy these without a solution.

GCs and TCs have completely opposite views about T-Pap and Talat. Both leaders should definetely work on their images on the other side. This also made me think if we need fresh leaders that can appeal to the other side.

Other interesting points:
    - 53% of TCs said T-Pap does not represent GC views. I think T-Pap does represent GC views and I don't know how TCs reached to the opposite conclusion.
    - TCs don't trust the EU but they want to enjoy the benefits of the EU. TCs don't even trust the organisation of Islamic countries.
    - TCs accept 80-20 territorial arrangement.

I have a sense that some TCs did not think about the questions fully. For example, the land that would be given back according to the Annan plan was a major setback in the north. Many TCs thought it was unacceptable but it was tolerable considering the grand scheme. Now, 80-20 is even worse and I don't think it would be accepted by the majority of TCs.

I'll post more after I read in more detail.
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Postby Alexandros Lordos » Wed Jun 15, 2005 11:04 pm

metecyp wrote:Some answers of GCs were odd. For example, 82% of GCs said that the primary motive for a solution is to improve the economic condition, 87% of GCs said the primary motive is to have a stronger voice in the international community, and 87% said the benefits of EU membership is the primary motive. I found these kind of surprising since GCs already enjoy these without a solution.


Yes, I also think this is a bit odd - though the response is not "the primary motive" but "a primary motive" which is a different story. I think GCs were over-eager to prove that they do want a solution to the Cyprus Problem, because they feel on the defensive, that they are being accused of not wanting a solution for saying "No" at the referendum. So, they now over-compensate and present themselves as very strongly motivated for a solution.


metecyp wrote:- 53% of TCs said T-Pap does not represent GC views. I think T-Pap does represent GC views and I don't know how TCs reached to the opposite conclusion.


I think TCs are trying to see Tassos' relationship with the GCs as equivalent to their relationship with Denktash - "Denktash didn't represent us, we threw him out, Tassos doesn't represent you, you should throw him out, if it wasn't for Tassos to mislead you, most of you GCs would have accepted the Annan Plan." (ahem... :roll: )


metecyp wrote:I have a sense that some TCs did not think about the questions fully. For example, the land that would be given back according to the Annan plan was a major setback in the north. Many TCs thought it was unacceptable but it was tolerable considering the grand scheme. Now, 80-20 is even worse and I don't think it would be accepted by the majority of TCs.


This proposal also, they mostly found as "not really acceptable, but tolerable for the sake of reaching a solution, considering the grand scheme of things". Furthermore, this proposal did have its pay-off: No GC would have been able to claim land within the TCCS, something which is not the case with the Annan Plan. So it is simultaneously worse and better for the Turkish Cypriots, compared to the Annan Plan.
Last edited by Alexandros Lordos on Wed Jun 15, 2005 11:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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