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Demographic change for reunification

Propose and discuss specific solutions to aspects of the Cyprus Problem

Demographic change for reunification

Postby Talisker » Sun Dec 20, 2009 1:14 am

In the recent thread ‘TCs ain’t no German Jews’ information was provided indicating that already many TCs are moving into the free and democratic south and living and working there.
http://www.cyprus-forum.com/viewtopic.p ... c&start=80

Jimski999 wrote:Numerous Turkish Cypriots have bitten the bullet and moved South and live and work in the local community around Paphos. I imagine these people will be classed as traitors by some from the North though no doubt they are here. They mingle with the locals in the shops, supermarkets, restaurants and Taverna’s. I can’t say I’ve seen a lynching in the streets or vigilantes hunting them down though unbelievable as it may seem to some from the North; they appear to be treated the same way as everyone else here. I only know they are Turkish Cypriots because my wife is Turkic and often comments about Turkish being spoken. To me the men look like Greek Cypriots (not like the Turkish people I work with) and it is very difficult to differentiate between the two; the give away for the Turkish Cypriot ladies is that they tend to wear Headscarves. Maybe these ladies and gentlemen are made of sterner stuff than some of our contributors?

I therefore wondered if there was an opportunity for GCs to encourage many more TCs (not settlers) to come south thus establishing a reintegrated community in which it is seen that TCs can live comfortably and safely with GCs? Incentives could include government grants to restore TC properties (including mosques) so they are habitable again after decades of neglect, schemes to encourage joint GC/TC businesses, schools, etc. Any TC living and working in the south would be eligible to participate in ‘one man, one vote’ democracy as it currently exists in the RoC in the same manner as any GC (or for any EU citizen within their own country).

If sufficient numbers of TCs were successfully integrated into the free and democratic, but demographically GC-dominated, south it would have the following effects:
(i) Send a message to all TCs that it is possible to live safely and prosperously with GCs in a reintegrated Cypriot community
(ii) Disturb the demographics in the north so that settlers outnumber TCs
(iii) Encourage TCs to participate within a single Cypriot democratic system rather than to argue for special privileges
(iv) Show the international community (EU, UK, Turkey, Greece, UN, USA, etc) that GCs are proactively showing a desire for a reintegrated community (this will counteract perceptions that GCs’always say no’ to plans for a settlement)
(v) Improve the overall infrastructure of the south (no more ghost villages and properties) with the short-term benefit of boost to building and associated trades.

All these factors could force the hand of Turkey and remaining TCs in negotiations towards reunification. Turkey would have a major problem as it would no longer be able declare that the 40,000 soldiers are there to protect TCs (many of whom will be living in the south), and moreover it would be clear that the north had become a little piece of Turkey, occupied predominantly by Turkish settlers and soldiers. This continued occupation of Cypriot, and therefore EU, land would become even more embarrassing and impossible to justify.

Could the RoC afford the financial incentives that would be required? Well, if it helped lead to reunification it would be an investment well worth paying as calculated within the following report.

The day after: Commercial opportunities following a solution to the Cyprus problem
http://www.prio.no/upload/Report-The%20day%20after.pdf

According to our calculations, if Cyprus were reunited, the recurring annual benefits to Cypriot businesses in the first seven years after reunification would generate, on average:
■ EUR 510 million per year in additional exports of goods and services to Turkey, of which EUR 385 million would be tourism and EUR 22 million would be transport
■ EUR 618 million per year in total additional trade in goods and services with Turkey
■ EUR 393 million per year in new business for Cypriot construction companies
■ EUR 155 million per year in new business for Cypriot real estate companies
■ EUR 316 million per year (excl. new business from Turkey above) in new business for Cypriot tourism enterprises
■ EUR 162 million per year of additional revenue for the Cypriot university education sector
■ EUR 103 million per year in additional income for Cypriot accounting and legal firms
■ EUR 184 million in new foreign direct investment (excl. construction and real estate above) into Cyprus
■ The annual boost to business—the annual peace dividend—rises from EUR 283 million in Year 1 to EUR 3.9 billion, or 10% of GDP, by Year 7.
■ The peace dividend is the equivalent of approximately EUR 1.8 billion per year (over CYP 1 billion or more than YTL 3 billion).
■ If this is translated into the annual dividend per family (household) in Cyprus, it comes to an annual peace bonus of approximately EUR 5,500 per household per year. This is around 20% of the current average salary in the southern part of Cyprus and an estimated 40% of the average salary in the northern part of Cyprus.


Seems to me the GCs need to be more proactive in their strategy for reunification. May seem difficult or impossible to ‘engineer’ major demographic shifts such as would be required with this strategy, but even within the last 20 years we’ve seen major population migrations as East Europeans have taken advantage of the fall of the Iron Curtain to move from the oppressed and poor East to the free, democratic and prosperous West. Anyone got any thoughts on the general ideas set out above and practical implementation?
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Postby Tim Drayton » Sun Dec 20, 2009 9:38 am

As far as I know, there are only a few hundred Turkish Cypriots living south of the green line. Certainly one occasionally hears Turkish spoken on the streets Limassol nowadays. Earlier this year I was walking through the old Turkish Cypriot quarter of Limassol and passed a group of toddlers who were playing in the street. I was astonished to hear that they were speaking Turkish as I passed them. I do not wish to question Jimski999's sincerity, but I feel that his post is exaggerrating the situation a little. I cannot help but quibble when I see his reference to headscarf wearing. Turkish Cypriots are very modern, westernised people and there is no widespread custom of wearing headscarves among Turkish Cypriot women. I can't help feeling that these headscarf-wearing people whom Jimski999 identifies as Turkish Cypriots are of some other ethnic identity. There are Turkish Cypriots living in the south - but not that many.

Notwithstanding these quibbles, I agree that the continued presence of a small Turkish Cypriot community in the south who appear to get on with their lives without let or hindrance flies in the face of the partitionist propaganda which claims that the two communities can never live together again.

However, there is also a common view in the Turkish Cypriot community that those small number of people who were willing to move back to the south have done so, and very few others are likely to follow suit until there is a settlement.
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Postby Talisker » Sun Dec 20, 2009 10:55 am

Tim Drayton wrote:As far as I know, there are only a few hundred Turkish Cypriots living south of the green line. Certainly one occasionally hears Turkish spoken on the streets Limassol nowadays. Earlier this year I was walking through the old Turkish Cypriot quarter of Limassol and passed a group of toddlers who were playing in the street. I was astonished to hear that they were speaking Turkish as I passed them. I do not wish to question Jimski999's sincerity, but I feel that his post is exaggerrating the situation a little. I cannot help but quibble when I see his reference to headscarf wearing. Turkish Cypriots are very modern, westernised people and there is no widespread custom of wearing headscarves among Turkish Cypriot women. I can't help feeling that these headscarf-wearing people whom Jimski999 identifies as Turkish Cypriots are of some other ethnic identity. There are Turkish Cypriots living in the south - but not that many.

Notwithstanding these quibbles, I agree that the continued presence of a small Turkish Cypriot community in the south who appear to get on with their lives without let or hindrance flies in the face of the partitionist propaganda which claims that the two communities can never live together again.

However, there is also a common view in the Turkish Cypriot community that those small number of people who were willing to move back to the south have done so, and very few others are likely to follow suit until there is a settlement.

Thanks Tim, I have no way of verifying numbers of TCs living in the south (presumably the RoC government has these figures, and wondered if they were available to the public?), but Jimski999's post just got me thinking about how a positive approach could be taken on this matter which could help in obtaining a full reunification solution. Y'see - I am an optimist! If clever inducements and policies were in place then perhaps the trickle of TCs coming south could become a flood!
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Postby Me Ed » Sun Dec 20, 2009 12:26 pm

Jimski999, hundreds of thousands of Cypriots (TC and GC) co-exist in the exact way you describe quite happily in London with no trouble what so ever.

The only real trouble in London is caused by Turkish (non-TC) drugs gangs that are engaged in killing each other.

I think the RoC should work with the EU on a strategy to use the money that was promised to the TCs for voting yes to the Anan plan to give them all EU CY passports and substantial grants for moving to the RoC, the UK or any part of the EU as they are entitled to as EU CY citizens.

Therefore the EU can fulfil it's promise to the TCs by ensuring this money goes directly to them and not a military regime.
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Postby Tim Drayton » Sun Dec 20, 2009 12:29 pm

Me Ed wrote:Jimski999, hundreds of thousands of Cypriots (TC and GC) co-exist in the exact way you describe quite happily in London with no trouble what so ever.

The only real trouble in London is caused by Turkish (non-TC) drugs gangs that are engaged in killing each other.

I think the RoC should work with the EU on a strategy to use the money that was promised to the TCs for voting yes to the Anan plan to give them all EU CY passports and substantial grants for moving to the RoC, the UK or any part of the EU as they are entitled to as EU CY citizens.

Therefore the EU can fulfil it's promise to the TCs by ensuring this money goes directly to them and not a military regime.


I think virtually all TCs by now have EU RoC passports.
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Postby Jimski999 » Sun Dec 20, 2009 12:48 pm

Hello Tim and Talisker
I would be the first to admit I cannot distinguish Kazakh from Turkish though my wife does speak the first and does understand the second and I can only go by what she tells me. I apologise if it seems I have gilded the Lily as it were though there are a lot more Turkish Cypriots around Paphos these days. Paphos had a large Turkish Cypriot community before the troubles so I could understand them heading back to their roots as it were. I read in on another post an hour or so ago that there was an estimate of a couple of thousand having moved south into the ROC which is not a tiny percentage if taking into account the number of Turkish Cypriots still left in the North.
I do agree that the ROC has to be proactive in enticing the Turkish Cypriots back into the fold; offering grants to rebuild their homes and other such things that will make it worth their while to return. Times have moved on since the problems of the Sixties and Seventies and it’s about time Cyprus moved on with them.
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Postby Jimski999 » Sun Dec 20, 2009 1:47 pm

Mr Ed

It was the same in the small town where I used to live in the North West of England; we had a small community of Turkish and Greek Cypriots who used to socialise and could often be found having a drink together in the local pub.
Paphos is now a multicultural society with many different nationalities who live and work together quite amiably. In the village where I live which is a Greek Cypriot village, all the locals know my wife is Turkic’ and know I work away from home. They keep a watchful eye on her and our daughter as they know they are by themselves and pass by to make sure they are OK and help out if she has any problems; not the GC mentality that some of the posters from the North would have you believe.


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Postby Bananiot » Sun Dec 20, 2009 1:53 pm

In 1963, it only took 2 fanatics from either community to turn the nice world you describe Jim upside down. Friends became fatal foes and decent people suddenly became beasts.
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Postby Talisker » Sun Dec 20, 2009 1:56 pm

Jimski999 wrote:Hello Tim and Talisker
I would be the first to admit I cannot distinguish Kazakh from Turkish though my wife does speak the first and does understand the second and I can only go by what she tells me. I apologise if it seems I have gilded the Lily as it were though there are a lot more Turkish Cypriots around Paphos these days. Paphos had a large Turkish Cypriot community before the troubles so I could understand them heading back to their roots as it were. I read in on another post an hour or so ago that there was an estimate of a couple of thousand having moved south into the ROC which is not a tiny percentage if taking into account the number of Turkish Cypriots still left in the North.
I do agree that the ROC has to be proactive in enticing the Turkish Cypriots back into the fold; offering grants to rebuild their homes and other such things that will make it worth their while to return. Times have moved on since the problems of the Sixties and Seventies and it’s about time Cyprus moved on with them.

Thanks Jimski999, no worries about gilding the lily, I'm sure you've provided the initial information in good faith. Just planted a seed in my mind, and wondered if a positive RoC strategy for reunification might come out of it.........
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Postby vaughanwilliams » Sun Dec 20, 2009 2:26 pm

Tim Drayton wrote:
Me Ed wrote:Jimski999, hundreds of thousands of Cypriots (TC and GC) co-exist in the exact way you describe quite happily in London with no trouble what so ever.

The only real trouble in London is caused by Turkish (non-TC) drugs gangs that are engaged in killing each other.

I think the RoC should work with the EU on a strategy to use the money that was promised to the TCs for voting yes to the Anan plan to give them all EU CY passports and substantial grants for moving to the RoC, the UK or any part of the EU as they are entitled to as EU CY citizens.

Therefore the EU can fulfil it's promise to the TCs by ensuring this money goes directly to them and not a military regime.


I think virtually all TCs by now have EU RoC passports.


Most TCs that I know have UK passports.
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