France-UK 'deal on Turkey talks'
 Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2005 12:40 am |
 |
|
| cypezokyli |
| lecturer |
|
| |
| Joined: 17 Jul 2005 |
| Posts: 2562 |
| Location: deutschland |
|
|
|
 |
|
 |
|
now we are talking.
| Quote: |
They forced this on us because they have the power to do so.
|
| Quote: |
| They don't mean a thing when you are the weak |
now we perfectly agree.
so all it comes down to is:
| Quote: |
When the balance of power favors you though your legal rights mean a lot.
|
the question is not only when but if the balance of power favors you.
and for the balance of power to favor you, that means
either,
you get stronger which is in our case impossible
or,
the one who has the power has more interests to support us than turkey.
i am not sure for which power u r talking about and how this power will have more interests in supporting us.
the USA?
the EU?
what do we have to offer? |
|
|
|
|
 | |  |
| Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2005 5:33 pm |
|
|
| Piratis |
| Moderator |
|
| |
| Joined: 10 Mar 2004 |
| Posts: 8680 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Quote: |
| the question is not only when but if the balance of power favors you. |
For me it is a matter of when, not if. Nobody can keep the power forever. The hard part is for us to make this happen earlier (say in 10-20 years) and not in 200 years. For this we have to work in the correct way and have a bit of luck.
| Quote: |
and for the balance of power to favor you, that means
either,
you get stronger which is in our case impossible
or,
the one who has the power has more interests to support us than turkey.
|
I don't know why you believe that Cyprus/Greece it is impossible to get stronger. Turkey can get weaker also. And of course the foreigners that will have the most power in 10-20 years might favor us more than the Turks.
You can not predict the future based on the facts that you have today.
The Ottoman empire ruled Greece (among other areas) for 400 years. At some point the balance of power favored an independent Greece. Such thing would be considered impossible just decades earlier.
How about the fall of USSR? Could we image an independent Ukraine, Latvia etc in the 70s and early 80s? One decade was enough to change everything.
Turkey is a torn nation. Very unstable. It does not belong to the east it does not belong to the west. It has the Kurds, it can have potential problems with the Islamists etc. Personally I am optimistic that the balance of power can change to our favor in the not very distant future.
Here I should repeat that if they offer us something acceptable today, we should take it now. However when what they offer is unacceptable then waiting is our only option. |
|
|
|
|
| | |
| Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2005 11:08 pm |
|
|
| Viewpoint |
| vip |
|
| |
| Joined: 20 Feb 2005 |
| Posts: 9018 |
| Location: Nicosia/Lefkosa |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Piratis wrote: |
| Quote: |
| the question is not only when but if the balance of power favors you. |
For me it is a matter of when, not if. Nobody can keep the power forever. The hard part is for us to make this happen earlier (say in 10-20 years) and not in 200 years. For this we have to work in the correct way and have a bit of luck.
| Quote: |
and for the balance of power to favor you, that means
either,
you get stronger which is in our case impossible
or,
the one who has the power has more interests to support us than turkey.
|
I don't know why you believe that Cyprus/Greece it is impossible to get stronger. Turkey can get weaker also. And of course the foreigners that will have the most power in 10-20 years might favor us more than the Turks.
You can not predict the future based on the facts that you have today.
The Ottoman empire ruled Greece (among other areas) for 400 years. At some point the balance of power favored an independent Greece. Such thing would be considered impossible just decades earlier.
How about the fall of USSR? Could we image an independent Ukraine, Latvia etc in the 70s and early 80s? One decade was enough to change everything.
Turkey is a torn nation. Very unstable. It does not belong to the east it does not belong to the west. It has the Kurds, it can have potential problems with the Islamists etc. Personally I am optimistic that the balance of power can change to our favor in the not very distant future.
Here I should repeat that if they offer us something acceptable today, we should take it now. However when what they offer is unacceptable then waiting is our only option. |
Dont want to burst your bubble Piratis but you are clutching a straws with this balance of power thing, you can wait but its clear it wont be in your life time or your grandchildren etc, keep kidding yourself because your viewpoint sounds as if you are desperate to persuade yourself (GC) to believe what you are saying more than TCs. But we can wait as I said before either for a change in the balance of power or recognition of TRNC which ever one comes first, agreed??? |
|
|
|
|
| | |
| Posted: Sun Sep 18, 2005 12:09 pm |
|
|
| cypezokyli |
| lecturer |
|
| |
| Joined: 17 Jul 2005 |
| Posts: 2562 |
| Location: deutschland |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Quote: |
| But we can wait as I said before either for a change in the balance of power or recognition of TRNC which ever one comes first, agreed??? |
despite the fact i totally disagree with viewpoints hope for partition,well...
on this one i agree
as for turkey, we can both speculate. the future is indeed not predictable. the balance of power can move towards us for even towards turkey.
what can i say more?
kallio pente kai sto heri...
.
| Quote: |
| Here I should repeat that if they offer us something acceptable today, we should take it now. However when what they offer is unacceptable then waiting is our only option. |
may i ask who do you mean by "they"?
who are these "they and what do we expect from them? and why would they bother in giving something acceptable.
in the meantime what do "we" do?
wait for "them" i guess.
while "they" wait for us... |
|
|
|
|
| | |
| Posted: Sun Sep 18, 2005 5:11 pm |
|
|
| Piratis |
| Moderator |
|
| |
| Joined: 10 Mar 2004 |
| Posts: 8680 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Quote: |
| But we can wait as I said before either for a change in the balance of power or recognition of TRNC which ever one comes first, agreed??? |
No I don't agree. When the balance of power will change I wouldn't care less about the status of your pseudo state. For me it will always be a pseudo state until the day the occupied areas of Cyprus are liberated.
| Quote: |
| kallio pente kai sto heri... |
I agree. This is why we voted "no". Better to have 5 now, than to destroy everything hoping that in the future we can have 10.
| Quote: |
may i ask who do you mean by "they"?
who are these "they and what do we expect from them? and why would they bother in giving something acceptable.
in the meantime what do "we" do?
wait for "them" i guess.
while "they" wait for us... |
"They" are the Americans. I never said that they will give anything acceptable now.
In the meantime we:
1) Don't sign away any of our rights
2) Make sure that Turkey will have to give something up from everything they receive from EU.
3) Help the ones that help us. Form better alliances.
4) Use the Cypriots and Greeks that live (and vote) abroad in a better way.
5) Offer to TCs benefits for doing things the legal way.
etc. |
|
|
|
|
| | |
| Posted: Sun Sep 18, 2005 5:36 pm |
|
|
| cypezokyli |
| lecturer |
|
| |
| Joined: 17 Jul 2005 |
| Posts: 2562 |
| Location: deutschland |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Quote: |
They" are the Americans. I never said that they will give anything acceptable now.
In the meantime we:
1) Don't sign away any of our rights
2) Make sure that Turkey will have to give something up from everything they receive from EU.
3) Help the ones that help us. Form better alliances.
4) Use the Cypriots and Greeks that live (and vote) abroad in a better way.
5) Offer to TCs benefits for doing things the legal way.
etc. |
"they" are the americans.
in the meantime i agree with everything u say
but those meantime things dont seem to affect the most important player. that is "the americans"
it seems that we can not influence the balance of power to our benefit. all we can do is wait for it to change...
by the way from the points u said which one do u consider currently happening?
and there is sth more i would like to say about the 15 years.
lets assune the balance of power shifts.
lets assume that turkey recognises cyprus and we get the better plan.
dont u implicitly also assume that the tcs will vote yes again?
if they say no, ofcource it will be their fault, but the outcomes of the invasion will not change. |
|
|
|
|
| | |
| Posted: Sun Sep 18, 2005 6:00 pm |
|
|
| Piratis |
| Moderator |
|
| |
| Joined: 10 Mar 2004 |
| Posts: 8680 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Quote: |
but those meantime things dont seem to affect the most important player. that is "the americans"
|
If that was not the case the Cyprus problem would not exist.
| Quote: |
by the way from the points u said which one do u consider currently happening?
|
I think we do those things to some degree but they could all be improved greatly.
| Quote: |
lets assume that turkey recognises cyprus and we get the better plan.
dont u implicitly also assume that the tcs will vote yes again?
|
This depends on the degree that the balance of power shifts.
1) If the balance of power is not a major one then a new more balanced plan will appear that can be accepted by GCs. This plan will still be one that offers to TCs more than the 1960 agreements. Therefore there is a big chance that TCs will accept it (knowing the consequences of voting "no") but yes, they can reject it.
2) if the balance of power is a major one, then there is no referendum. Turkey and TCs are obligated to stop the illegalities and no option is given to them to keep any kind of illegalities. Also the RoC constitution is modernized based on the EU standards. If any referendum is held at that time it will not be "Plan X or continuation of illegality" it will be "Plan X or 1960 constitution". (which is the way it should have always been: Cypriots decising whether to change their constitution or not. Continuation of something illegal should not be an option for anybody) |
|
|
|
|
| | |
| Posted: Sun Sep 18, 2005 6:32 pm |
|
|
| cypezokyli |
| lecturer |
|
| |
| Joined: 17 Jul 2005 |
| Posts: 2562 |
| Location: deutschland |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Quote: |
| I think we do those things to some degree but they could all be improved greatly |
agreed
| Quote: |
| This plan will still be one that offers to TCs more than the 1960 agreements. |
it is so good that we agree on this one.
one last comment. when u make scenarios about the future remeber not to only take the best one. such analysis would be usually called worst case best case scenario.
the worst case scenario is absent from your post and i really think that we should consider it. that is if the balance of power shifts against us even more. what could happen then? perhaps we take famagusta and they take a state?
i dont want to play the kassandra but, since the balance of power is sth which is not under our direct control, then we should consider all posibilities and calculate them in the possible prons and cons. |
|
|
|
|
| | |
| Posted: Sun Sep 18, 2005 7:18 pm |
|
|
| Viewpoint |
| vip |
|
| |
| Joined: 20 Feb 2005 |
| Posts: 9018 |
| Location: Nicosia/Lefkosa |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Piratis wrote: |
| Quote: |
| But we can wait as I said before either for a change in the balance of power or recognition of TRNC which ever one comes first, agreed??? |
No I don't agree. When the balance of power will change I wouldn't care less about the status of your pseudo state. For me it will always be a pseudo state until the day the occupied areas of Cyprus are liberated.
|
What if we continue with the current status quo and the balance of power doesnt not shift in your favor but in ours, the TRNC is recognized will you still consider us a pseudo state, I think I know your mindset well enough to guess your answer....  |
|
|
|
|
| | |
| Posted: Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:57 pm |
|
|
| cmantas_liberal |
| advanced member |
|
| |
| Joined: 08 Aug 2005 |
| Posts: 77 |
| Location: ekali, athens |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
think that Taiwan, which is state that derived from the right of the chinese to live in a free country and not under a red-junta is not recognized, though it has a good argument since it represents the free chinese pp. Taiwan is a strong country and with a stable economy but still is not recognized.
So, who is going to recognize TRNC which is a product of a military intervention that is condemned from UN? Using the example of Taiwan, u may have to wait for 200 years at least.....
Unless u consider a recognition from Azerbaijan's nazist regime as a 'good result' for turkish diplomacy. Though that the banana republic of azer/an is the only one that has tried to recnognized TRNC, u can understand that you will have to wait for the second coming to see a recognition from a normal country. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
