In a second email, this pilot expanded on how he is thinking about what might have happened:
I don’t know what happened to MH370 any more than anyone else who wasn’t aboard. But here’s how my head works with this. I try to find the simplest, least complex explanation that works with ALL THE AVAILABLE FACTS/INFORMATION, and that doesn’t need “added” leaps or assertions or events to have happened that we do not have any info about.
For instance, several things point to an “event,” not an “accident.” The lack of communication, the programmed turn, the climb to FL450 and descent to FL250, and the continuation of the aircraft’s existence as a whole object, powered and uncrashed, for about seven-plus hours after the disappearance.
The plane's ACARS and transponder were physically shut off, by some accounts before the last radio communication from the crew. We know that the aircraft remained powered and in controlled flight for many hours after this point. The aircraft’s route of flight in the FMS was changed by someone in the cockpit, as was its altitude, both up and down. There was no Mayday issued, and the aircraft did not answer repeated radio calls from ATC.
Let’s look at a smoke or fire “accident.” I do not believe, based on what we know now, that there was smoke or a fire. Why? Because there is no indication of fire, or smoke in the cockpit, during the time the aircraft was still in contact, and there is no indication of "fire" behavior in the aircraft's flight path. Additionally, normal emergency protocols train the crew to immediately don and wear full-face O2 masks (the B777 is equipped with them), and designate one pilot to fly and talk to everyone (aviate and communicate) while the other pilot runs the checklist and fights the problem. The plane made a sharp left turn, toward land, soon after ATC communication was lost. This was shown to have been pre-programmed into the FMS by the pilots.
The flying pilot’s job in an emergency such as this would be to point the airplane at the closest acceptable runway, announce to the world the nature of the emergency (ATC) and request help, and begin a descent so that at some point during the process, an attempt to vent the smoke from the cabin could be done.
Basically, none of this was done. This leads me to believe that there was no emergency of this type. For this type of emergency to be in play, it indicates that the cockpit crew would have had to willfully refuse to follow their training and checklists to combat the emergency.
Airborne smoke and fire emergencies are extremely serious, and are trained for by every airline crew in the world. In the wake of Swissair 111, which crashed off the coast of Nova Scotia, we know that a flight crew has a very limited period of time in which they must land the plane before disaster ... only 14 minutes in the Swissair tragedy ... yet MH370 continued to fly for more than seven hours after contact was lost. This is yet another clue that points away from an in-flight physical, mechanical, or other type of emergency.
There is evidence that Malaysia Airlines crews often allowed passengers onto the flight deck during flight, which is an indication both of lax safety and security procedures to my western way of thinking, but may be totally permissible at Malaysia Airlines. The FO had allowed some pretty girls to sit in the cockpit during a flight last year. His captain did not protest. This anecdotal info could lend credence to the idea of hijackers gaining access to the flight deck after takeoff.
To my eye, a fire/smoke emergency does not fit what we currently know.
Neither does a missile, engine failure, structural failure, loss of pressurization or any other kind of “accidental” failure. This looks and sounds like a “planned event,” not an “unforeseen emergency.” Mistakes can occur, and the sad truth is that we don’t know what we don’t know … but until something comes to light that supports an “emergency” situation, the simplest and most logical explanation is that someone took control of that airplane and diverted it from it’s planned course and destination.
http://www.businessinsider.com/malaysia ... z2wRsbxWUc
