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What happened to flight MH370?

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Re: What happened to flight MH370?

Postby Paphitis » Sun Apr 20, 2014 9:20 pm

Talisker wrote: Can I get the views on the experts who have so far contributed to the discussion on this topic - how would it be possible for the so far unidentified pilot/hijacker to crash the plane into the remote ocean (if this is what happened) without leaving any trace (other than the disputed pings about which you have written....)? If the plane was deliberately nosedived perpendicularly into the ocean would it likely break up and parts resurface, or would it break up and sink, or would it remain relatively intact upon impact with the ocean surface, reach a great depth (after all, the plane is designed to be aero-, and therefore presumably by implication hydro-dynamic), but at depth would crack under pressure, fill with water and sink (but without releasing a lot of flotsam and jetsam)? Or, assuming the pilot/hijacker had killed everyone beforehand by depressurization at high altitude, would it be possible to fly to the far reaches of the ocean, and ditch in the ocean swell such that the plane remained intact, and then scuttle it (bearing in mind that this would be far more challenging, due to the ocean swell, than the River Hudson landing referred to in other posts)?


All the experts are currently baffled. There is hardly any logic and it is unprecedented. Whilst the Malaysians made some bad errors in the beginning which did not help, there are really not many answers at the moment as far as we know. Now many people will make accusations of a cover up but in all honesty, what do you want them to say? They have theories and probable causes but can they prove anything? Probably not.

If the aircraft was nosedived into the ocean then it would most certainly break up. It is possible that the aircraft was miraculously ditched nicely and at very slow speeds just before the stall provided there was no swell. Why would a suicidal person or terrorist do that is something that is really unknown. They would also have to be incredibly skilled to pull it off and extremely "lucky" (if that is the right term).

In my opinion, there are debris somewhere in the Indian Ocean. It could even be in the Southern Ocean in which case they would end up in the Tasman by now. The problem with MH370 is that in the beginning, the whole thing was bungled or mishandled by the Malaysians and not only. There are reports that the Malaysian Military even detected the aircraft with Primary Radar and was not flagged while the entire world was looking for MH370 in the South China Sea wasting precious time. Even Thailand detected the aircraft and revealed this some 7 days later. Valuable time was lost. Now after more than 40 days it is unlikely any debris will be found except by pure fluke. Maybe one day some debris will eventually be found by fluke.

The JACC is really not confident at all in finding any debris. They want to call this part of their operations off!

They are a lot more confident about the search on the ocean floor that they are about the prospect of finding debris on the surface. if they do not find MH370 in the areas where they detected signals consistent with a Black Box, then the possibility that MH370 will never be found is very real. It is the final hope.

They could as I mentioned earlier expand their search along the Inmarsat Handshake Arc. Incredibly expensive and painstaking and probably futile as well, but that is still the only information they have which they can go by - and to fully search this arc will take a few years.

Talisker wrote:It seems to me that terrorism (if that is what this is) comes in many forms - 9/11 was shocking in so many ways - the images of the planes crashing into the twin towers, the human drama we all witnessed so publically, the death toll, etc. Whereas, if the disappearance of MH370 was a terrorist act, it could be one where the terrorists want to cause fear through the very mystery of the complete disappearance of the plane and its occupants. And whoever was responsible planned for the disappearance to be as absolute as possible, keeping this in the public eye for a considerable period of time by so doing.


Terrorism has not been ruled out. Even so, if the pilots were not involved, this terrorist was an extremely well trained one. They would have had excellent knowledge about all the systems on a B777 aircraft. They knew how things work. There were a lot of deliberate actions made on the aircraft. Transponders were turned off, there were altitude changes, and heading changes. The terrorist also had knowledge of way-points, could select them in the Flight Management Computer, and could operate the Auto Pilot, maintain altitudes and headings. Certainly not your typical terrorist. If they somehow pulled off a ditching similar to US Airways in the Hudson, then you would have to say the terrorist is a rather accomplished and skilled pilot as well.

But that's not all!

The terrorist even disabled ACARS. How did they do this? Well, no pilot can easily do such a thing. There is no ACARS off switch. Why would there be? Think about it.

The person who did it, must have climbed down into the NAV Bay and popped the circuit breaker for the datalink. Most pilots would even have to look very hard for it. So the terrorist had very intricate knowledge about the aircraft and must have meticulously planned the whole thing.

This is certainly one hell of a terrorist!
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Re: What happened to flight MH370?

Postby Kikapu » Sun Apr 20, 2014 11:11 pm

In order for the B-777 to make a smooth landing without breaking up by landing into the sea, the Atmospheric High Pressure needs to very high in order for the seas to very calm and smooth, like glass. Secondly, the aircraft needs to be under power so that the plane can be guided to keep the nose high so to make a belly landing. If the plane had run out of fuel as suspected, then it would be coming in pretty hot (fast) and steep to maintain flight on the glide slope, and would only get one chance to make a good landing. Not likely, therefore the plane would break up immediately. Then there are the two very large engines under the wings. Even if the plane was under power and the nose was kept high, the chances are, these two large engines would come in contact with the water first, and in doing so, it will force the nose to come down very fast into the water at high speed. As this is happening, the engines would be ripped off the wings and perhaps the wings ripping off the plane also. Once the water start coming into the plane, it will turn into a submarine and sink.

In a nutshell, I cannot see how the B-777 can remain intact even under the most favourable sea condition. Chances are, the closer one gets to the Roaring Forties, the harsher the sea conditions are, which is where the Aussies first suspected the MH370 to be, before changing the search area to much further north by about 600miles where the seas may be calmer. This change of location always worried me as to why it was done, other than telling everyone that the plane had used too much fuel by flying too fast therefore it must have crash landed 600 miles short placing it 600 miles north of the Roaring Forties. Most likely flying too fast at low altitude, but the claim was that it was flying too high at high altitude. But why would the plane be heading to Southern Indian Ocean to crash into the sea? What was so special of the person(s) flying the MH370 wanting to die at Southern Indian Ocean and not in the China Seas? This act also worries me, because it makes no sense at all. Naturally there's much more to the MH370 story than the relevant governments have told us. There has to be.
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Re: What happened to flight MH370?

Postby Pyrpolizer » Mon Apr 21, 2014 1:39 pm

Technical data NEVER lie. Be as optimist as you like, if you have a shot gun whose maximim range is 400m you will NEVER be able to shoot a rabbit at 10Km away….

The US made Towed Pinger locator dragged by Ocean Shield that presumably managed to pick up 4 pings from a "man made device" was model TPL-25. Nothing unusual, nothing unknown about this device. In fact wikipedia had it all a long time ago.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Towed_pinger_locator

Since the pinger signal is relatively weak, the hydrophone must be within about one nautical mile (6,076 feet (1,852 m)) to detect it.

I have time and time again provided the positions of the 4 detected pings that prove beyond any reasonable doubt that

Each and everyone of those pings is MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE to ALL OTHERS.
That the only way possible for that happening could be if the the beacon emitting the signals WAS MOVING.
If ping No 1 is correct then all others are wrong. If more than 1 pings is correct, then the "man made device" was moving.


What puzzles me is how on earth all those super experts dealing with the matter have not realized this very simple fact, that even a high school student could of have realized from the very first glance at those positions.

Image

From there on all they should do is just use the bluefin-21 to scan 4 distinctive areas each of which was precisely 10.75 Km2. (Total area to be scanned about 42Km2). They did that and even scanned more area around each ping to finally conclude that pings No1 and 2 and either 3 or 4 were Kaput. What was left -from last Fridays news- was this:

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news ... er-3219331

The search……. has narrowed to a 10 sq km (6.2 sq mile) patch of sea floor about 2,000 km (1,200 miles) west of the Australian city of Perth.

Today we already know that all 4 ping locations turned out to be Kaput.
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Re: What happened to flight MH370?

Postby Kikapu » Mon Apr 21, 2014 2:43 pm

Pyrpolizer wrote:Today we already know that all 4 ping locations turned out to be Kaput.


That's because the sub that was sending these ping signals has already sailed away from the search area! :wink:
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Re: What happened to flight MH370?

Postby Paphitis » Mon Apr 21, 2014 2:58 pm

The Australian Government will be meeting with the Malaysian Goovernment.

They are planning to deploy the following:
1) additional Bluefin-21 submersibles,
2) at least one navy towed sonar,
3) at least 1 retrieval Robotic AUV and
4) a manned submersible (no mention how deep this can go, but something similar that was used on the Titanic).

The operation is going to get a lot bigger within the month.

The search for debris on the surface is scheduled to cease in the coming days.
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Re: What happened to flight MH370?

Postby Paphitis » Mon Apr 21, 2014 3:17 pm

Kikapu wrote:In order for the B-777 to make a smooth landing without breaking up by landing into the sea, the Atmospheric High Pressure needs to very high in order for the seas to very calm and smooth, like glass. Secondly, the aircraft needs to be under power so that the plane can be guided to keep the nose high so to make a belly landing.


No it does not have to have any power whatsoever. The aircraft has an optimum Glide Speed and just before impact you can stall it. A relatively soft belly ditching is possible in relatively smooth seas, just like US Airways 1549 in the Hudson which also had no power. The water was not that smooth either.

Kikapu wrote:If the plane had run out of fuel as suspected, then it would be coming in pretty hot (fast) and steep to maintain flight on the glide slope, and would only get one chance to make a good landing. Not likely, therefore the plane would break up immediately. Then there are the two very large engines under the wings. Even if the plane was under power and the nose was kept high, the chances are, these two large engines would come in contact with the water first, and in doing so, it will force the nose to come down very fast into the water at high speed. As this is happening, the engines would be ripped off the wings and perhaps the wings ripping off the plane also. Once the water start coming into the plane, it will turn into a submarine and sink.


They are not presuming that the aircraft had run out of fuel either. They are also considering the possibility that the aircraft was quite deliberately and violently ditched by the individual in control of the aircraft, in which case it would break up. It is not surprising that no debris have been found, because the search parties got to this area far too late so they were always behind the eight ball. Debris, would have scattered and drifted a hell of a long way by now and they do not believe it is likely that they will find any now.

And again, US Airways 1549 is very similar to the B777 only smaller. It did a very good ditch in the Hudson, but obviously when it hit the water, deceleration is very quick once the aircraft dug in. As we all know, the aircraft remained intact and the ditching was survivable.

Kikapu wrote:In a nutshell, I cannot see how the B-777 can remain intact even under the most favourable sea condition. Chances are, the closer one gets to the Roaring Forties, the harsher the sea conditions are, which is where the Aussies first suspected the MH370 to be, before changing the search area to much further north by about 600miles where the seas may be calmer. This change of location always worried me as to why it was done, other than telling everyone that the plane had used too much fuel by flying too fast therefore it must have crash landed 600 miles short placing it 600 miles north of the Roaring Forties. Most likely flying too fast at low altitude, but the claim was that it was flying too high at high altitude. But why would the plane be heading to Southern Indian Ocean to crash into the sea? What was so special of the person(s) flying the MH370 wanting to die at Southern Indian Ocean and not in the China Seas? This act also worries me, because it makes no sense at all. Naturally there's much more to the MH370 story than the relevant governments have told us. There has to be.


I disagree. The B777 is capable of staying intact. It might lose a Lift Dumper but otherwise remain very much intact depending on the sea conditions and the way it was ditched. It would have to come in very slow just a few knots above the stall, and at between 30 to 50FT, progressively flare into a complete stall.The Tail Skid can't dig in either because that will just fling the nose in. It will still be violent but the aircraft can be ditched and remain intact. It has been done before.

As I keep telling you, some of the world's leading experts, analysts and investigators would be working on this around the clock from many countries. Investigators come up with any likely scenarios, and the most probable causes. Aircraft Performance Analysts would crunch the numbers and work out where the aircraft is likely to run out of fuel for various configurations and on top of that they would include all Grid Point winds in their calculations. From this, the Australians define their search areas and try to exhaust the possibilities.

There is nothing more that can be done.
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Re: What happened to flight MH370?

Postby Kikapu » Mon Apr 21, 2014 4:31 pm

Paphitis,

Yes, the plane can glide without power, but how would the pilot retain the flare long enough to choose its most favourable landing spot in the sea? The pilot gets one chance only to get it right. The moment the engines hit the water, which would be at the same time as the belly of the aircraft, all bets are off as to what would happen to the aircraft next, because it will bring the nose into the water.

Hudson River waters are no comparison to sea conditions in the Sothern Indian Ocean. But lets assume that the B-777 did not break up on impact, then where are the survivors on rafts, or do you think the whole plane just sunk intact with everyone aboard?

If they do not presume the aircraft run out of fuel, then why would the aircraft ditch into the sea if it didn't have to before it run out of fuel? Perhaps the pilot ditched the plane while still having power for better control just short of running out of fuel.

Also, why move the search area 600 miles north to a new search area if they did not believe MH370 run out of fuel/about to run out of fuel and crashed there?
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Re: What happened to flight MH370?

Postby Paphitis » Mon Apr 21, 2014 5:10 pm

Kikapu wrote:Paphitis,

Yes, the plane can glide without power, but how would the pilot retain the flare long enough to choose its most favourable landing spot in the sea? The pilot gets one chance only to get it right. The moment the engines hit the water, which would be at the same time as the belly of the aircraft, all bets are off as to what would happen to the aircraft next, because it will bring the nose into the water.


No not necessarily!

The engines do not lave a long enough moment or arm to fling the nose down with that much ferocity as compared to let's say a wing tip or Tail Skid which have a massive arm from the Centre of Gravity.

The engines are also virtually hollow. Water will get sucked in through the Turbo fan which will probably break, around the inner core and Turbine and through the exhaust.

Oh you can also ditch an aircraft in a swell. there are procedures for this. Pilots are trained how to do it in a way that increases survivability! You ditch along the swell and in crosswind conditions and then slew the aircraft down the wave as if you are positioning the aircraft to surf the wave.

It is important to be as slow as possible with wings level.

Here is an official document:

http://www.casa.gov.au/wcmswr/_assets/m ... /253-1.pdf

Kikapu wrote:Hudson River waters are no comparison to sea conditions in the Sothern Indian Ocean. But lets assume that the B-777 did not break up on impact, then where are the survivors on rafts, or do you think the whole plane just sunk intact with everyone aboard?

If they do not presume the aircraft run out of fuel, then why would the aircraft ditch into the sea if it didn't have to before it run out of fuel? Perhaps the pilot ditched the plane while still having power for better control just short of running out of fuel.

Also, why move the search area 600 miles north to a new search area if they did not believe MH370 run out of fuel/about to run out of fuel and crashed there?


Hudson River waters are no comparison most of the time, but the Indian Ocean can also be as flat as a tack!

Once again, please read this document (all of it): http://www.casa.gov.au/wcmswr/_assets/m ... /253-1.pdf

In my case, not only was I trained but I was also trained to survive at sea for extended periods. Most of my flying was over water - low and slow. We even have deplorable life rafts with water, rations, warm clothing, EPIRB and flares.

Mind you, ditching is my nightmare scenario. Wouldn't be fun at all. And no one really knows how it will go. You have to get it right or else.

They say there is an 88% chance of survivability but I reckon that is a bit optimistic.
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Re: What happened to flight MH370?

Postby Pyrpolizer » Mon Apr 21, 2014 6:00 pm

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news ... er-3219331

There are new fears today that the underwater search team could be looking for the missing Malaysia Airlines plane in the WRONG place.

According to a front page exclusive in Malaysia's newspaper of record, The New Straits Times, there is renewed concern that flight MH370 may have ended up elsewhere - other than the Southern Indian Ocean.

As the search enters its 45th day this morning, the article quotes members of the International Investigation Team (IIT) based in Kuala Lumpur claimed they are thinking of starting right from the beginning to solve this unprecedented chapter in aviation history.

An official is quotes as saying: "We may have to look into this if no positive results come back in the next few days - but at the same time the search mission in the Indian Ocean will go on.

"The thought of it landing somewhere else is possible as we have not found a single piece of debris that could be linked to MH370.

"However, the possibility of a specific country hiding the plane when more than 20 nations are searching for it, seems absurd."
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Re: What happened to flight MH370?

Postby Paphitis » Mon Apr 21, 2014 6:24 pm

Pyrpolizer wrote:http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/flight-mh370-live-updates-after-3219331

There are new fears today that the underwater search team could be looking for the missing Malaysia Airlines plane in the WRONG place.

According to a front page exclusive in Malaysia's newspaper of record, The New Straits Times, there is renewed concern that flight MH370 may have ended up elsewhere - other than the Southern Indian Ocean.

As the search enters its 45th day this morning, the article quotes members of the International Investigation Team (IIT) based in Kuala Lumpur claimed they are thinking of starting right from the beginning to solve this unprecedented chapter in aviation history.

An official is quotes as saying: "We may have to look into this if no positive results come back in the next few days - but at the same time the search mission in the Indian Ocean will go on.

"The thought of it landing somewhere else is possible as we have not found a single piece of debris that could be linked to MH370.

"However, the possibility of a specific country hiding the plane when more than 20 nations are searching for it, seems absurd."


http://www.straitstimes.com/the-big-sto ... t-20140421
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