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Turkey' downs Russian jet' ....

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Re: Turkey' downs Russian jet' ....

Postby Get Real! » Mon Oct 12, 2015 12:36 am

DrCyprus wrote:http://famagusta-gazette.com/putin-urges-joint-antiterrorism-efforts-after-ankara-deadly-blasts-p30078-69.htm

Doesn't sound like someone who just had his MiG downed.

He doesn't have any MiGs in Syria anyway.
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Re: Turkey' downs Russian jet' ....

Postby Tim Drayton » Mon Oct 12, 2015 2:02 pm

Kikapu wrote:
Paphitis wrote:Hooray for Turkey!

Eat it Putin Bitch! What are you gonna do now?


Paphitis, before you put too much stock into this unsubstantiated claim, on social media no less, that Turkey shot down a Russian Jet, you need to see what's going on in Turkey at the moment. Erdogan needs a diversion from what has actually happened in Turkey yesterday with over 100 people being killed with the bombings, no doubt many pointing the finger at Erdogan himself as the guilty party for this massacre and rightly so. Also, with the elections coming up soon, why not try and capitalize on such a claim that he can also stand against a Super power Russia. Don't get sucked into such political propaganda. You are smart enough to see through all this smokescreen bullshit. In the first place, Turkey would not dare to shoot down any Russian Jets, assuming they even had the capability. Shit, 8 Turkish Jets had missile lock-on them by the Russians the other day and had to high tail out of the area.


Yes, and no. I agree that Erdoğan is behind this massacre. He is out to save his bacon, because if a government excluding the AKP is formed he will surely end up in prison, given the amount of evidence already stacked up against him as to his involvement in corruption on a vast scale, unless he manages to flee the country. The polls are showing that there is no chance of a majority AKP government coming out of the elections, and an opposition coalition government is looking ever more possible.

However, I don't agree that he wants or needs a diversion. Surely his aim was to provoke a violent reaction. He has been doing all in his power since the June elections, whose results he refused to recognise, to revive the disastrous civil war of the nineties and foster an atmosphere of violence and chaos so as to create a pretext for cancelling the elections due in less than three weeks. He appears to have failed again, though, because instead of a violent outburst,a two-day strike and student boycott of classes has been called for and peaceful demonstrations are taking place all over the country.

You are no doubt familiar with Fuat Avni, the Twitter account almost certainly sponsored by the Gulenists who have virtually the whole of Turkey bugged and which keeps dishing out the dirt on what Erdoğan's real thoughts and plans are. Just about every prediction made on this Twitter account has so far come true, and if you look at the following recent tweets, you will see that actions like Saturday's bomb are predicted there. You will also notice that among the actions being mooted is the deliberate shooting down of a Russian plane to provoke a war, because elections can legitimately be cancelled at wartime.

http://www.haberartiturk.com/fuat-avnid ... 48156h.htm

The allegation has been made on the Fuat Avni Twitter account that Erdoğan has gone mad, and if you look at the extremes he is going to to stay in power, I think this is the correct conclusion. He could well wish to see a Russian plane shot down to provoke war with Russia just to save his own bacon.
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Re: Turkey' downs Russian jet' ....

Postby Tim Drayton » Mon Oct 12, 2015 2:54 pm

The UK's rabidly right wing Express newspaper, which supports Farage's semi-fascist UKIP and, in common with its sister the Mail, which both supported Hitler in the 1930's, has recently been adopting a pro-Putin line, is reporting the shooting down of a Russian jet by Turkey "according to as yet unconfirmed reports circulating on social media."

However, European stock markets, including Turkey's are level to slightly down today, and the US futures are level, which suggests to me that an incident likely to provoke a wider war did not happen.
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Re: Turkey' downs Russian jet' ....

Postby Tim Drayton » Mon Oct 12, 2015 3:01 pm

Russia's economy is in crisis and Turkey is its second biggest natural gas customer.
Turkey gets just over half of its natural gas from Russia.
The word symbiosis comes to mind. They can't hurt one another without hurting themselves.
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Re: Turkey' downs Russian jet' ....

Postby GreekIslandGirl » Mon Oct 12, 2015 3:46 pm

Tim Drayton wrote:Russia's economy is in crisis and Turkey is its second biggest natural gas customer.
Turkey gets just over half of its natural gas from Russia.
The word symbiosis comes to mind. They can't hurt one another without hurting themselves.


It's tough on needy Turkey. Europe can take all the gas off Russia's hands.

It's 75 million in Turkey and 750 million in Europe. Now, which would you prefer as a trading partner?
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Re: Turkey' downs Russian jet' ....

Postby Tim Drayton » Mon Oct 12, 2015 5:25 pm

Oil is down over 1% at the moment in the USA. The markets don't look like they are anticipating war with Russia.
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Re: Turkey' downs Russian jet' ....

Postby Tim Drayton » Mon Oct 12, 2015 5:40 pm

From a website that reports in detail on Daesh on a weekly basis and is confusingly called Daesh Daily:

A local tribal commander says Iraqi forces have surrounded Ramadi from all sides and are preventing Daesh terrorists from fleeing. He also says Iraqi forces are waiting only for Abadi’s orders to move into the city.

A security source says Iraqi forces are only 800 meters (1/2 mile) from Ramadi center.

An Anbar GC member of says Ramadi will be liberated within 3 weeks.


http://www.daeshdaily.com/

(I have found this to be quite a reliable and objective source of information.)
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Re: Turkey' downs Russian jet' ....

Postby Tim Drayton » Mon Oct 12, 2015 5:45 pm

A comment from the same source:

Western Anbar

A source in Anbar Police says Daesh executed 19 men publicly after Friday prayers in Al-Qa’im, accusing them of cooperating with Iraqi forces. [Mada]

DaeshDaily comment. This story and the Hit executions seem to reflect the same pattern seen in Ninewa and elsewhere. As local opposition to it grows, Daesh responds by executing people, often publicly, to intimidate the population into staying in line. It’s cruel, it’s awful, and it’s a sign that Daesh’s grip is weakening.


A thought has just occurred to me. Perhaps Daesh was on the verge of disintegrating anyhow, and Putin has decided this is a good moment to move in and try to gain the credit for it.
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Re: Turkey' downs Russian jet' ....

Postby Tim Drayton » Tue Oct 13, 2015 2:19 pm

According to Russia’s TASS news agency:

MOSCOW, October 12. /TASS/. Turkey remains Russia’s partner despite contradictions on the international scene, Kremlin chief of staff Sergey Ivanov said on Monday.

"Turkey is our good neighbor and partner and we have close ties between our leaders and authorities," Ivanov said. "Sometimes we have certain contradictions in international relations but we discuss them publicly and privately and publicly with account for mutual interests."


http://tass.ru/en/politics/828209
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Re: Turkey' downs Russian jet' ....

Postby Paphitis » Tue Oct 13, 2015 6:11 pm

GreekIslandGirl wrote:
Tim Drayton wrote:Russia's economy is in crisis and Turkey is its second biggest natural gas customer.
Turkey gets just over half of its natural gas from Russia.
The word symbiosis comes to mind. They can't hurt one another without hurting themselves.


It's tough on needy Turkey. Europe can take all the gas off Russia's hands.

It's 75 million in Turkey and 750 million in Europe. Now, which would you prefer as a trading partner?


Russia needs Turkey as much as Turkey does if not more.

There is not much chance that the EU will be buying from Russia anytime soon. Germany, France, Holland and UK won't have a bar of it.
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