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Ranking the alternative outcomes of the Cyprus Problem

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Ranking the alternative outcomes of the Cyprus Problem

Postby ioann » Fri Dec 25, 2015 1:18 pm

Ranked from best to worst the possible (and not so possible) outcomes to the Cyprus Problem from the Greek Cypriot perspective.

1. Best outcome: Liberation of the north part of Cyprus and gradual undoing of the harm caused during the past 4 decades. Turkish Cypriots receive no more than minority rights.
Chances of this happening: Currently about 0% It will not happen now but there is small chance that it could happen in the future if the Republic of Cyprus maintains its sovereignty rights over the whole island.

2. Two state solution with return of significant amounts of territory.
Pros: Significant amount of land is returned, the majority of refugees return to their homes the rest of the refugees get title deeds for TC properties in the south, full benefits from our EEZ, stability
Cons: Lose all rights to the north part of Cyprus that will remain under the Turks, increased competition by a recognized TC state
Chances of this happening: 5%. It would be a good solution for TCs and not the worst for GCs. However Turkey wants a lot more.

3. Continuation of Status quo
Pros: Maintain our rights so (1) could one day be possible, Relatively stable, no losses.
Cons: no gains
Chances of this happening: 50%. Although maintaining this 3rd best option should be within our abilities unfortunately our leaders are doing very badly recently which reduces the possibility of this option and increases the possibility for worst outcomes.

4. Upgrade of the "TRNC" (direct flights, direct trade, maybe recognition by a couple of Muslim countries etc)
Pros: We still maintain our sovereignty rights over the north, At least we avoid the worst outcomes
Cons: Everything else
Chances of this happening: 35%. It becomes more and more possible due to the incompetence of our current leadership

5. Official recognition of the "TRNC" as an independent state
Pros: None, apart from at least not being an even worst outcome
Cons: Everything else
Chances of this happening: Currently 0%. Russia and China will not allow such thing to pass from the UN and it is not the first choice of Turkey either.

6. BBF similar to Annan plan
Pros: some land is returned, some refugees return to their homes
Cons: We are downgraded to a community status and our power is reduced to be the same of that of an 18% minority. North officially recognized as Turkish, lose right to ever take it back. Turkey essentially controls the whole Cyprus. instability, conflicts possible.
Chances of this happening: 10%. It is what serves the interests of Turkey best among the possible outcomes so Turkey and their allies are pressing our side to accept this.

7. Turkey invades again, occupies the whole Cyprus (and commits genocide against us?)
Pros: Nothing
Cons: Everything
Chances of this happening: Currently 0% but becomes more possible if a BBF is accepted since that unstable system can easily lead to conflicts which could eventually lead to Turkey invading a disarmed and defenseless Cyprus.
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Re: Ranking the alternative outcomes of the Cyprus Problem

Postby Zenon33 » Fri Dec 25, 2015 3:42 pm

ioann wrote:Ranked from best to worst the possible (and not so possible) outcomes to the Cyprus Problem from the Greek Cypriot perspective.

1. Best outcome: Liberation of the north part of Cyprus and gradual undoing of the harm caused during the past 4 decades. Turkish Cypriots receive no more than minority rights.
Chances of this happening: Currently about 0% It will not happen now but there is small chance that it could happen in the future if the Republic of Cyprus maintains its sovereignty rights over the whole island.

2. Two state solution with return of significant amounts of territory.
Pros: Significant amount of land is returned, the majority of refugees return to their homes the rest of the refugees get title deeds for TC properties in the south, full benefits from our EEZ, stability
Cons: Lose all rights to the north part of Cyprus that will remain under the Turks, increased competition by a recognized TC state
Chances of this happening: 5%. It would be a good solution for TCs and not the worst for GCs. However Turkey wants a lot more.

3. Continuation of Status quo
Pros: Maintain our rights so (1) could one day be possible, Relatively stable, no losses.
Cons: no gains
Chances of this happening: 50%. Although maintaining this 3rd best option should be within our abilities unfortunately our leaders are doing very badly recently which reduces the possibility of this option and increases the possibility for worst outcomes.

4. Upgrade of the "TRNC" (direct flights, direct trade, maybe recognition by a couple of Muslim countries etc)
Pros: We still maintain our sovereignty rights over the north, At least we avoid the worst outcomes
Cons: Everything else
Chances of this happening: 35%. It becomes more and more possible due to the incompetence of our current leadership

5. Official recognition of the "TRNC" as an independent state
Pros: None, apart from at least not being an even worst outcome
Cons: Everything else
Chances of this happening: Currently 0%. Russia and China will not allow such thing to pass from the UN and it is not the first choice of Turkey either.

6. BBF similar to Annan plan
Pros: some land is returned, some refugees return to their homes
Cons: We are downgraded to a community status and our power is reduced to be the same of that of an 18% minority. North officially recognized as Turkish, lose right to ever take it back. Turkey essentially controls the whole Cyprus. instability, conflicts possible.
Chances of this happening: 10%. It is what serves the interests of Turkey best among the possible outcomes so Turkey and their allies are pressing our side to accept this.

7. Turkey invades again, occupies the whole Cyprus (and commits genocide against us?)
Pros: Nothing
Cons: Everything
Chances of this happening: Currently 0% but becomes more possible if a BBF is accepted since that unstable system can easily lead to conflicts which could eventually lead to Turkey invading a disarmed and defenseless Cyprus.




The only alternative is 1.
Cyprus is one state, one island, not two states.
Forgot the "Annan plan", it was the Turkey plan. Part of OUR territory was invaded by a foreign country. "North Cyprus" doesn't exist, it's Cyprus.
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Re: Ranking the alternative outcomes of the Cyprus Problem

Postby Get Real! » Fri Dec 25, 2015 5:10 pm

4 & 5 have 0% chance of coming to pass due to...

Resolution 353 (1974)
http://www.mfa.gov.cy/mfa/mfa2006.nsf/A ... penElement

Resolution 541 (1983)
https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/United_N ... lution_541
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Re: Ranking the alternative outcomes of the Cyprus Problem

Postby GreekIslandGirl » Fri Dec 25, 2015 6:39 pm

So, you're trying to tell us that the best outcome (No.1), the most just, has zero chance of happening?

Welcome back, "Andros" etc. :lol:

cyprus20642.html

BTW - How did you work out your probabilities?
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Re: Ranking the alternative outcomes of the Cyprus Problem

Postby ioann » Fri Dec 25, 2015 7:20 pm

GreekIslandGirl wrote:So, you're trying to tell us that the best outcome (No.1), the most just, has zero chance of happening?

Welcome back, "Andros" etc. :lol:

cyprus20642.html

BTW - How did you work out your probabilities?


Thank you Androulla! :?

Currently and in the foreseeable future option number 1 has zero chance of happening. Do you disagree? It has been the most just option for decades. Nothing changed now that would make possible what has always been impossible. In the distant future it can happen, because anything can happen. Do you disagree? How exactly do you see it happening under the current situation?

The percentages are there just as an indication of how possible I believe an option can be. If you disagree then let us know your views.
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Re: Ranking the alternative outcomes of the Cyprus Problem

Postby ioann » Fri Dec 25, 2015 7:28 pm

Get Real! wrote:4 & 5 have 0% chance of coming to pass due to...

Resolution 353 (1974)
http://www.mfa.gov.cy/mfa/mfa2006.nsf/A ... penElement

Resolution 541 (1983)
https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/United_N ... lution_541


For number 5 I agree (as I wrote). However number 4 has more chances of happening if our leadership doesn't act correctly. Anastasiades is really too soft and a gradual upgrade of the pseudo state is not impossible. I remember when it was big news and we made a lot of noise if some high ranking foreign diplomat visited the pseudo state. Now it is the opposite and we celebrate whenever a diplomat doesn't visit them (e.g. Lavrov recently). If we do not get our act together the situation will keep deteriorating.
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Re: Ranking the alternative outcomes of the Cyprus Problem

Postby ioann » Fri Dec 25, 2015 7:35 pm

Zenon33 wrote:
ioann wrote:Ranked from best to worst the possible (and not so possible) outcomes to the Cyprus Problem from the Greek Cypriot perspective.

1. Best outcome: Liberation of the north part of Cyprus and gradual undoing of the harm caused during the past 4 decades. Turkish Cypriots receive no more than minority rights.
Chances of this happening: Currently about 0% It will not happen now but there is small chance that it could happen in the future if the Republic of Cyprus maintains its sovereignty rights over the whole island.

2. Two state solution with return of significant amounts of territory.
Pros: Significant amount of land is returned, the majority of refugees return to their homes the rest of the refugees get title deeds for TC properties in the south, full benefits from our EEZ, stability
Cons: Lose all rights to the north part of Cyprus that will remain under the Turks, increased competition by a recognized TC state
Chances of this happening: 5%. It would be a good solution for TCs and not the worst for GCs. However Turkey wants a lot more.

3. Continuation of Status quo
Pros: Maintain our rights so (1) could one day be possible, Relatively stable, no losses.
Cons: no gains
Chances of this happening: 50%. Although maintaining this 3rd best option should be within our abilities unfortunately our leaders are doing very badly recently which reduces the possibility of this option and increases the possibility for worst outcomes.

4. Upgrade of the "TRNC" (direct flights, direct trade, maybe recognition by a couple of Muslim countries etc)
Pros: We still maintain our sovereignty rights over the north, At least we avoid the worst outcomes
Cons: Everything else
Chances of this happening: 35%. It becomes more and more possible due to the incompetence of our current leadership

5. Official recognition of the "TRNC" as an independent state
Pros: None, apart from at least not being an even worst outcome
Cons: Everything else
Chances of this happening: Currently 0%. Russia and China will not allow such thing to pass from the UN and it is not the first choice of Turkey either.

6. BBF similar to Annan plan
Pros: some land is returned, some refugees return to their homes
Cons: We are downgraded to a community status and our power is reduced to be the same of that of an 18% minority. North officially recognized as Turkish, lose right to ever take it back. Turkey essentially controls the whole Cyprus. instability, conflicts possible.
Chances of this happening: 10%. It is what serves the interests of Turkey best among the possible outcomes so Turkey and their allies are pressing our side to accept this.

7. Turkey invades again, occupies the whole Cyprus (and commits genocide against us?)
Pros: Nothing
Cons: Everything
Chances of this happening: Currently 0% but becomes more possible if a BBF is accepted since that unstable system can easily lead to conflicts which could eventually lead to Turkey invading a disarmed and defenseless Cyprus.




The only alternative is 1.
Cyprus is one state, one island, not two states.
Forgot the "Annan plan", it was the Turkey plan. Part of OUR territory was invaded by a foreign country. "North Cyprus" doesn't exist, it's Cyprus.


Unfortunately we can't have number 1 now. It can only be a possible (but far from guaranteed) option for the future as long as we don't sign anything that would make north Cyprus Turkish with our agreement.
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Re: Ranking the alternative outcomes of the Cyprus Problem

Postby GreekIslandGirl » Fri Dec 25, 2015 8:01 pm

ioann wrote:Currently and in the foreseeable future option number 1 has zero chance of happening. Do you disagree? It has been the most just option for decades. Nothing changed now that would make possible what has always been impossible. In the distant future it can happen, because anything can happen. Do you disagree? How exactly do you see it happening under the current situation?

The percentages are there just as an indication of how possible I believe an option can be. If you disagree then let us know your views.


I'm sorry that you believe there is zero chance of justice being done and the Turks being removed. Perpetuating views like that could demoralize people and make them accept the unacceptable. Self-fulfilling prophecies and all that. Is that what you want?

As to how it can happen under the current situation .... well, it can only happen under the current situation. Holding out for justice! Any agreements other than the ONE just agreement of total removal of Turkey and its influences might just give you what you believe/want.
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Re: Ranking the alternative outcomes of the Cyprus Problem

Postby ioann » Fri Dec 25, 2015 8:53 pm

GreekIslandGirl wrote:
ioann wrote:Currently and in the foreseeable future option number 1 has zero chance of happening. Do you disagree? It has been the most just option for decades. Nothing changed now that would make possible what has always been impossible. In the distant future it can happen, because anything can happen. Do you disagree? How exactly do you see it happening under the current situation?

The percentages are there just as an indication of how possible I believe an option can be. If you disagree then let us know your views.


I'm sorry that you believe there is zero chance of justice being done and the Turks being removed. Perpetuating views like that could demoralize people and make them accept the unacceptable. Self-fulfilling prophecies and all that. Is that what you want?

As to how it can happen under the current situation .... well, it can only happen under the current situation. Holding out for justice! Any agreements other than the ONE just agreement of total removal of Turkey and its influences might just give you what you believe/want.


I doubt that anybody believes that (1) is possible today. There are those that believe that we should settle for BBF (worst idea ever) and those who want to keep the status quo recognizing that BBF would actually be worst and maybe hope that in the future there is a tiny chance we will manage to get back what we lost. But today liberating the north is impossible. I know this, you know this, everybody knows this. Knowingly lying to each other would not raise our moral.
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Re: Ranking the alternative outcomes of the Cyprus Problem

Postby B25 » Fri Dec 25, 2015 9:14 pm

It is either option 1 or the status quo. Anything else would be surrendering Cyprus to Turkey and legalising their invasion and occupation.

Option 1 may not be possible now, so we stay as we are until such time that it is, we sign over nothing, Turkey can do as she pleases illegally and against UN resolution and international norms.

Case closed, end of.
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