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Syria Peace countdown!

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Re: Syria Peace countdown!

Postby Robin Hood » Wed Mar 16, 2016 5:14 pm

:roll: Paphitis ..... have you been sick or just pissed off at your defeat? I was getting quite worried for your welfare! :wink:
Now learn the real story.

What ..... from your point of view? You have been wrong in most of your predictions since the day Putin took control of events in Syria.
The reason for Russia's withdrawal are several and I shall go through them one by one so that you people can learn something from the real world.

The REAL world is not a single source, uninformed rant about the way you would like to see events. Reality is ..... how it happens. What has happened is that Putin has shoved the West’s sole aim of ‘Assad must go!’ where the Sun don’t shine, along with Kerry’s ‘Plan B’. Putin is now running the show ........... get used to it! :lol:
The reasons are as follows:

You mean the reasons as you see them? :?
1) Russia is in a steep economic decline and soon could be at the brink of a complete collapse and Government Shutdown thanks to the flooding of excess Oil onto the market by Saudi Arabia and the embargoes by the EU, and APEC. This war was fought on many fronts, including the economic front and here, the KSA has the upper hand and so do the Coalition Partners.

What rubbish ..... the Saudi’s are almost bankrupt .... and another great US plan has hit the skids when it misfired and has lead to economic problems for EVERYONE including the US. Fracking, the US mainstay, is no longer economically viable, plus in California the amount of oil they thought they would get through fracking, has been overestimated by 95%!!!!!!
This Russian collapse will be unprecedented in Global Terms and will dwarf Greece's Collapse and even the downturn in China. That is one contributing factor and a very big bargaining chip for the Rebels since Russia's economy is 50% based on Oil Production. Yes, Oil is what Russia is interested in, as well as its bases and it just so happens that we control the price per barrel and can hold Putin to ransom. Of course, you will never here this on the MSA but read, listen and learn.

Just in case you haven’t noticed .... China still has a growth rate the West can only dream of! Russia, Iran and China are trading directly in energy products without the petro dollar, that is a serious threat to the US. You don’t control the oil price ‘you’ are subject to the same forces as Russia ..... the markets determine the price and when the US or its allies interfere, like every thing else they do there are unintended consequences for every one else as well.

If you were better informed you would realise that the Worlds economy/financial system, is teetering on the edge of the abyss, including ALL the major powers including the USA. A big, big change is coming ...... watch this space! You should read, listen, watch and learn something about the financial and monetary system ...... it is orders of magnitude a greater threat to our welfare than terrorism!
2) Pootin knows very well that there will not be a Military Solution in Syria and it has a massive fear of getting caught in a Syrian Quagmire similar to their adventure in Afghanistan a few decades ago.

Did you not read/watch Putin’s statement(s) when he decided, at Assad’s invitation, to assist him to destroy US/NATO armed and supported terrorists. He said that Russia’s role was a short term one and that he had no intention of creating another humanitarian disaster like Iraq or Libya, that the US and its partners seem to excel at. He said he would destroy ALL terrorists and he has shown the US precisely how to deal with them, so listen and learn!! :roll:

Putin’s goals have been achieved as per plan , as promised and this has left Assad in a position to be able to resolve his own problems ............ provided of course your bloody coalition does not poke its nose in and rearm the terrorists. But then Putin is on the end of a telephone line and any attempt by the coalition to destroy the gains from Russian intervention toward a political settlement and he will come back to finish what he stared and blow your ‘moderate rebels’ asses inside out, once and for all! :x
And we would be very happy to trap them in that quagmire as well as bring his economy down to its knees where he will have all the IMF Bankers arrive on his doorstep. Not that he will be able to fight the war like the Russians did in Afghanistan for nearly a decade because he would not have the capital to even maintain his aircraft.

It won’t happen! I believe the Russians have spent just a few million more in ‘practicing’ their skills in Syria in a live war situation than they would have in doing training exercises.

Putin is too smart for the US bankers, why do you think Russia and the other BRICS nations have set up their own International banking system? (i.e. their own WB/IMF) Why do you think these countries are dumping the petro dollar and trading in national currencies? Who has been buying up all the worlds gold ? ...... Russia and China!...... whilst another great US plan to hold gold prices artificially low, has back fired. What do they know that you have yet to comprehend?
3) Because he knows the choices are for a political solution and not a military solution (resulting in a massive quagmire)

Exactly as he originally set out in 2012 and ‘you’ ignored him. When you threatened the National interests of Russia he stepped in, took control and carried a plan out to the letter. All the coalition could do was stand aside and learn how to do it from Russia. His plan worked, it is the US coalition that is in the quagmire!
The momentum at the peace talks seems to indicate that there is growing momentum for a Technocratic Administrative Coalition of all Opposition Rebels plus Baathist representatives to take over the "throne" from Assad. Yes Assad was read the riot act by Pootin pressuring him that he must get serious about negotiating a proper Political Solution for Syria and that Russia will not be around to bail Assad's arse again.

Wrong again! Assad will remain for some time yet, what you are quoting is the ‘moderates’ and the Kerry wish list. Russian forces are being partially withdrawn and this was discussed with Assad before Putin made his statement. He didn’t even bother to discuss it with the US coalition as they are now of no military relevance in Syria. But he will retain sufficient air power to deter the US coalition from making any ill advised moves to revert to a furtherance of conflict. Didn’t you say the cease fire wouldn’t work and that it would be Assad/Russia that would be the first to break it? You were wrong again! :roll:
4) this is a politically face saving withdrawal, and we are happy for the Russians to save face and call it a great step towards peace and political transition for Syria, since that is what is going to happen.

Russia has no need for a face saving exit strategy ..... ‘face saving’ is for your coalition to make use of. To give Putin his due he is not trying to rub your noses in your failure to achieve anything of note in almost three years. It was all hot air, bullsh*t and threats with a liberal helping of lies! You sort out Iraq! That was your screw up so ‘you’ sort it out ...... maybe you could ask Putin for a few tips on how to achieve results.
If all goes well, Saudi Arabia and Russia could even agree to cut Oil Production rather than just freeze production which will save Russia's economy and Pootin's political hide. We might be nice enough to loosen some of the embargoes and perhaps even abolish them completely in a few years!

As you indicate the Saudis and the Russians, who both get most of their income from oil and gas, will sort it out to suit themselves ............ not the US.
Make no mistake about it, but Pootin's arse belongs to us. It depends on him how hard and how big the pineapples will be!

You live in a dream world .......... the US coalition has been well and truly stuffed by Putin!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... rm-decline

http://www.focus-economics.com/countries/russia

You have posted this economic data for Russia ..... but you obviously don’t understand it! Try the same exercise with the US economy!
But I will leave you again to ponder on this reality for yourselves.


It is not reality, it is a very simplistic and ever so slightly biased view that you have. As seems so often to be the case, you are the only one marching in step, even the BBC, the MSM are out of step ..... let alone all the informed independent news outlets! Stop reading the Boomerang Herald it will only come back around to stuff you up the fundamental orifice! :lol: :lol:
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Re: Syria Peace countdown!

Postby Paphitis » Wed Mar 16, 2016 5:21 pm

Don't worry about my welfare RH! I am fine!

And now the Coalition has an open cheque in Syria. We own the place now. We dictate the terms and the Rebels still control a large chunk of Syria.With our assistance, they can only consolidate. So be very careful about how you want to claim victory because I don't see a victory at all. I see a major back-flip and things are transitioning towards peace and of course that will also mean regime change I am afraid. Soon the political reps of the Rebels will be working the halls of power in the new interim Government before elections are held in 2017.

Pootin will be looked after so do not worry too much. We will even give him all his interests on a silver platter. You see Pootin only cares about Pootin and Russia, not Syria and Assad.

Prepare yourself my friend. This political solution is not going to be to your liking.

What, you honestly believed Pootin and Assad were going to destroy some 30 odd Rebel Grouls of the SDF with 30 planes? Silly bugger! :lol:

Face it! They have won their little slice! They have won their future and their rightful place. I believe they have won the war. The loser will become apparent to us all probably within the next month but it won't be made so obvious lest we undermine Pootin's face saving ambition.
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Re: Syria Peace countdown!

Postby Robin Hood » Wed Mar 16, 2016 5:45 pm

Paphitis.

Not a source I would normally rely upon to make a point but they are a typical MSM rag for the uninformed masses ....... and even they appear to be out of step with your opinions! :roll:

As a craven West caves in to Putin, this could be the biggest shift in power since Suez, writes JOHN R. BRADLEY

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3494373/As-craven-West-caves-Putin-biggest-shift-power-Suez-writes-JOHN-R-BRADLEY.html#ixzz4354fepRD
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Re: Syria Peace countdown!

Postby Paphitis » Wed Mar 16, 2016 6:03 pm

Robin Hood wrote:Paphitis.

Not a source I would normally rely upon to make a point but they are a typical MSM rag for the uninformed masses ....... and even they appear to be out of step with your opinions! :roll:

As a craven West caves in to Putin, this could be the biggest shift in power since Suez, writes JOHN R. BRADLEY

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3494373/As-craven-West-caves-Putin-biggest-shift-power-Suez-writes-JOHN-R-BRADLEY.html#ixzz4354fepRD


Don't worry about the MSM. They are not going to tell you that all this has been cooked up with some pretty big back room wheeling and dealing.

I think Russia and the USA have some joint interests and they have traded others and sorry to say but Assad is probably not high enough on Pootin's list for him to give a toss.

I would think carefully before claiming any victory. The only winners here will be Pootin and the USA. The question is, what have they agreed to. Expect major developments in due course.
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Re: Syria Peace countdown!

Postby Robin Hood » Wed Mar 16, 2016 6:48 pm

Paphitis:
Don't worry about the MSM. They are not going to tell you that all this has been cooked up with some pretty big back room wheeling and dealing.

I think that is an understandable conclusion but, when it comes down to the nitty-gritty .... it could not have happened had it not been for the Russian intervention.
I think Russia and the USA have some joint interests and they have traded others and sorry to say but Assad is probably not high enough on Pootin's list for him to give a toss.

I think you are wrong! Because under Assad, whatever you happen to think of him, Syria was a stable, secular state with a sound economy and the same sort of social benefits that the Libyans enjoyed under Ghadaffi! Free education, health care and interest free loans for housing. The Libyans lost the lot on a British/French (and US) promise, to stand by them in their hour of need and they ended up with a failed Sate and an Islamic IS paradise. :roll:

The Syrians will NOT vote for that and that is all the ‘moderates’ can offer, certainly not a secular state, and they have proved it. So, in my book, Assad will stay, he will stand in fair and free elections and I truly believe the Syrian people will chose him above any Islamic (Sharia) party. I have said before ............. better the devil you know. :wink:
I would think carefully before claiming any victory. The only winners here will be Pootin and the USA. The question is, what have they agreed to. Expect major developments in due course.

I don’t say Assad has won! His fight to retain his position has just started and he has a long way to go before he can claim victory. Of course there have been deals behind the curtains but the Russians (Lavrov/Putin) do not trust Kerry ..... it is in the body language.

Putin’s call for the Syrians to be allowed their own choice of leader, without imposed selection decided by foreigners, will be respected. As for further developments .......... inevitable but what they are, you and I can only guess at! :?
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Re: Syria Peace countdown!

Postby Robin Hood » Wed Mar 16, 2016 7:40 pm

This is a well reasoned analysis of Putins partial pull out from Syria. This guy is an ex-military analyst so his conclusions merit some credibility. What he says makes a lot of sense.
Analysis Of The Russian Military Pullout From Syria - by The Saker

The Russians went in with a small force and they achieved limited goals: the legitimate authority of the Syrian government has been stabilized and the conditions for a political compromise have been created. That is not an opinion, but the facts on the ground. Not even the worst Putin-haters can dispute that.* Today’s declaration shows that the Russians are also sticking to their initial exit strategy and are now confident enough to withdraw their forces. That is nothing short of superb (when is the last time the USA did that?).

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article44443.htm


* He has obviously not met Paphitis then? :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Syria Peace countdown!

Postby miltiades » Wed Mar 16, 2016 8:17 pm

Robin wroe:
"The Syrians will NOT vote for that and that is all the ‘moderates’ can offer, certainly not a secular state, and they have proved it. So, in my book, Assad will stay, he will stand in fair and free elections and I truly believe the Syrian people will chose him above any Islamic (Sharia) party. I have said before ............. better the devil you know. "

Assad will not only survive but he will be overwhelmingly re elected. Surely the Syrian people have had enough of this wretched war. they want peace , stability and a return to normal life. Under Assad they enjoyed peace and tranquillity until the so called Arab spring and the West's dreadful misjudgement.

Europe is also affected by the huge number of refugees. Lets have peace in Syria, lets have the devil that is known by all.
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Re: Syria Peace countdown!

Postby Robin Hood » Thu Mar 17, 2016 8:18 am

Miltiades:

Precisely! You and I agree because it is simple common sense! Certain people are driven by the naive belief that their media sources are 100% reliable and anything that contradicts their understanding is simply propaganda; This is just one example related to current and previous events in Syria ..............

Syria: Things They Just Made Up - By Kit

The Western MSM are all a flutter: Russia are pulling out of Syria (sort of). They can’t quite decide if it’s a victory, or a defeat. They don’t know if it’s because they ran out of money, are giving up, or it’s all a big lie – but they all agree on two things: 1) Russia have not achieved anything and 2) This is a massive a surprise.

Such a surprise that Putin announced the plan five months ago, in a story printed in the Telegraph. This is what the Western world has come to, I suppose, if a politician SAYS he’s going to do something and then actually DOES IT, this is…surprising. How sad.

The Guardian are firmly of the belief that this is “A Bad Thing” – in fact they are so against Russia leaving Syria, that one almost forgets they were just as strongly against Russia entering Syria in the first place. Because Russia and reasons.

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article44447.htm


I think you have perfectly summed up the situation and that IS what will happen, provided the US coalition does not resupply the rebels .... if they do, all bets are off! The reason why we are correct in our thoughts is very simple.

Unlike the US led coalition, Putin presented his intent the day he entered into the conflict, he has delivered on his assurance and has met with success. Not victory or the defeat of Daesh, as that was never his stated intention. His intent was to get the warring parties to talk out a political solution and it is now beginning to happen.

What it boils down to is that Putin has proved to be a man of his word, he can be trusted. On the other hand, the US coalition only ever had one intent and that was the theme that ‘Assad must go!’ . They had no other intent and what the Syrian people wanted was of no significance, they only listened to the rebels because they were singing the same US tune! The US led coalition instigated, supported and armed rebels against the elected government. (Illegal according to the UN Charter) It was that act that destroyed Syria as the US lost control of their proxy army and they were taken over by Islamic extremist elements. That was when Putin stepped up to the challenge and ..... let’s face it ....... took control of the situation in Syria and has had ‘results’?

The Syrian people are not stupid. They know what they had before and what they have now and, more to the point, they know why and how, mainly by indirect actions of the US coalition, their country has been destroyed. They also know the US and its allies cannot be trusted to keep their word ..... they only have to look at Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Egypt etc. for inspiration to prevent the same happening to them. They almost lost it and have recognised that the US coalition were never their friends but the Russians were and still are.

IMO: The UN should step in, not militarily, but to ensure that the Syrian people get their free and fair elections, without preconditions, especially set by a foreign entity ...... something that Putin has always said was paramount in his plan. The Syrian people will decide their future and the refugees will return. But they have to have something to return to.

As the coalition is so keen on blowing billions to destroy Syria, maybe they should likewise be made to pay significant reparations (billions €’s/£’s/US$) to rebuild the country and its infrastructure. This of course will never happen because the US and the western powers have NEVER paid any reparations to compensate for their destructive actions, anywhere, since the end of WWII. They inevitably start these conflicts and then walk away leaving nothing but chaos, death, poverty and destruction in their wake ........ and then find another ‘humanitarian’ war to fight. :roll:

Lets have peace in Syria, lets have the devil that is known by all.


If I were a Syrian with any sense, that is what I would go for too! :roll:
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Re: Syria Peace countdown!

Postby Paphitis » Fri Mar 18, 2016 3:44 am

All of you are talking nonsence and need to take a big step back!

Pootin, has asked Assad to step down. For what reasons, no one really knows other than the Russian and US Deep States with their behind the scenes manipulations, wheeling and dealing. None of you will ever know and neither will I, but I do offer the following personal assessments which may be true and may not be 100% but there will certainly be an element of truth in some of them that is for sure:
1) Russia did not enter Syria to fight terrorism. That is a fact! look around and assess objectively. DAESH is still rampant! Russia did not attack them. They have left the real terrorists to the Coalition. They attacked moderates in order to protect Russian Interests - Russian Oil and Gas Interests and their bases!
2) Russia did not enter Syria to save Assad! Assad was just a pawn - a means to an end. See point above.
3) Part of Russia's posturing was to bolster Pootin's domestic support in Russia in the wake of a crumbling and failing economy which could collapse within 2016 without US intervention and the lifting of the embargoes.
4) The Russian Economic Revenue is 50% dependent on Oil, which means they need to negotiate some matters with the Gulf States otherwise it is Good Bye Russia as it will go the way of Greece.
5) Russia if you like is almost on the same page as the Coalition or the USA. We know where they are coming from because it would have been revealed to us behind the scenes. They know where we are coming from too. So I am afraid, Assad is not within any of our plans for Syria.

Of course, there will be numerous trade offs for both Russia and USA. The Russians are set to win a number of things, what they are no one knows as yet but they are probably going to include some of the following things:
1) the lifting of embargoes,
2) some sort of sovereign status for their military assets in Syria,
3) probably some Oil and Gas contracts for Gazprom,
4) and a few other bits and pieces we don't know about.

The coalition gets the following,
1) Iraq,
2) Assad's head (the thing you guys don't get is neither the USA or Russia can be embarrassed internationally),
3) Russian support against North Korea and China (South China Sea),
4) Free licence to fight DAESH and Al Nusra without any interference from Russia or Syria.
5) the possibility of a Kurdish State (I hope so anyway) and client State of the USA where they will no doubt get the Oil and Gas contracts

In the end, I think you will find that Pootin and Obama are in collusion.

That's where its headed. So get ready for the Assad step down because there will NEVER be a Military Solution because first of all it doesn't serve Pootin's interests either. pootin has far bigger problems he has to address for Russia's sake.

:D :D :D
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Re: Syria Peace countdown!

Postby Robin Hood » Fri Mar 18, 2016 7:37 am

Paphitis:
All of you are talking nonsense and need to take a big step back!

You post with the same arrogance as the US speaks!
Pootin, has asked Assad to step down.

Bullsh*t .......... the story came from Western intelligence several weeks ago, and is a case of 2+2=5. It is an assumption, one person’s opinion and ,like most of these accusations from Western sources, is not supported by a shred of evidence. It is not a fact!
For what reasons, no one really knows other than the Russian and US Deep States with their behind the scenes manipulations, wheeling and dealing. None of you will ever know and neither will I, but I do offer the following personal assessments which may be true and may not be 100% but there will certainly be an element of truth in some of them that is for sure:

More 20-20 guess work then?
1) Russia did not enter Syria to fight terrorism. That is a fact! look around and assess objectively. DAESH is still rampant! Russia did not attack them. They have left the real terrorists to the Coalition. They attacked moderates in order to protect Russian Interests - Russian Oil and Gas Interests and their bases!

They went in to stabilise the Syrian government, Putin made this very clear when he entered into the conflict. Daesh is a terrorist outfit but, as Putin said, a terrorist is a terrorist and they were out to remove the military capability of ALL terrorists. In Syria the problem was not so much Daesh but these mythical ‘moderate’ terrorist trying to force regime change. Assad was fighting both a civil war and an invasion ..... so Putin degraded their military capability and put the SAA in a position to complete the task. Russia will still use its power in Syria against Daesh .... fact!

When will you get the message that there are ONLY terrorists. The ‘moderate’ tag was applied by the coalition to attempt to legitimise their illegal arming and supporting of terrorists trying to oust an elected government.
2) Russia did not enter Syria to save Assad! Assad was just a pawn - a means to an end. See point above.

See above
3) Part of Russia's posturing was to bolster Pootin's domestic support in Russia in the wake of a crumbling and failing economy which could collapse within 2016 without US intervention and the lifting of the embargoes.

Putin has a 90%+ approval rating among the Russian people in spite of the hardships they suffer through the US’s declaration of economic warfare ..... once again based on the 2+2=5 principal previously referred to ...... yes, MH17 ..... still no evidence to support Kerry’s lies then?

Plus the deliberate collapse of the oil prices, once again instigated by the US and its ally Saudi and that has misfired .... unintended consequences?
4) The Russian Economic Revenue is 50% dependent on Oil, which means they need to negotiate some matters with the Gulf States otherwise it is Good Bye Russia as it will go the way of Greece.

Russia will not go the same way as Greece. If you understood even the basics of economics you would understand why!
5) Russia if you like is almost on the same page as the Coalition or the USA. We know where they are coming from because it would have been revealed to us behind the scenes. They know where we are coming from too. So I am afraid, Assad is not within any of our plans for Syria.

What ‘you’plan is an irrelevance! ‘You’ know nothing; Putin entered Syria .... Oh, what a surprise! Putin achieved his goals ...... surprise, surprise! Russia will enter a quagmire ..... oops, they completed their task and drewdown ..... another surprise!

Face it Paphitis, Putin has been five steps ahead of the coalition from before day one. Assad is still in power and will remain so for the foreseeable future. If the Syrian people get their free and fair vote ..... he will continue to remain in power for a long, long time ...... because it will be the will of the people. He will go when the people say so ..... NOT when ‘you’ say so .... that’s a fact.
Of course, there will be numerous trade offs for both Russia and USA. The Russians are set to win a number of things, what they are no one knows as yet but they are probably going to include some of the following things:
1) the lifting of embargoes,
2) some sort of sovereign status for their military assets in Syria,
3) probably some Oil and Gas contracts for Gazprom,
4) and a few other bits and pieces we don't know about.

You make it sound as if all these decisions are a case of the US speaks and Putin doffs his cap and knuckles his forelocks in grovelling gratitude for a few crumbs from the US table? Step back .....look at the picture ...... Russia is calling the shots and will work in their own interests. You are just making broad assumptions. When/if Assad gets control of his country back and they start to rebuild , award contracts, it will be Russia/China/Iran and to an extent, Europe that will pick up these contracts ..... not the US.
The coalition gets the following,
1) Iraq,
2) Assad's head (the thing you guys don't get is neither the USA or Russia can be embarrassed internationally),
3) Russian support against North Korea and China (South China Sea),
4) Free licence to fight DAESH and Al Nusra without any interference from Russia or Syria.
5) the possibility of a Kurdish State (I hope so anyway) and client State of the USA where they will no doubt get the Oil and Gas contracts

All pie in the sky, from 1 to 5! The US will carry on tickling Daesh in Iraq because they never addressed the problem...... their proxy army does not have the heart to fight and the US coalition will only carry out operations in Syria by prior notification. IMO: I doubt the Kurds will get their independent State in Syria, maybe an area within Syria with some autonomy.
In the end, I think you will find that Pootin and Obama are in collusion.

Not collusion ..... wrong word ...... they are having to work together for their common good.
That's where it’s headed. So get ready for the Assad step down because there will NEVER be a Military Solution because first of all it doesn't serve Pootin's interests either. pootin has far bigger problems he has to address for Russia's sake.

But it was only the US coalition that believed they could reach a military solution! Putin has said from the beginning, he was working solely toward a negotiated settlement and he has at least got to the starting point of that process, which is a damn site more than your coalition has achieved in three years on endless bombing in Iraq. Assad now has an amnesty in force (with conditions) and many FSA rebels have switched to supporting the elected Syrian government as have many of these ‘moderate’ rebels.

Once again, history has shown you cannot rely upon the US ..... they work ONLY in their own economic, political and military interests. When you have outlived your usefulness to the US, they cast you off like an old sea boot! :cry:

Try judging events by results that are verifiable and tangible, instead of writing wish-lists! :roll:
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