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Make or break time for Turkish ties to Civilisation!

Benefits and problems from the EU membership.

Re: Make or break time for Turkish ties to Civilisation!

Postby erolz66 » Tue Mar 08, 2016 3:43 pm

Jerry wrote: Will it? Or will it start a merry-go-round. Make the illegal crossing - get sent back to Turkey - join the queue to gain legitimate entry to the EU.


Of course this will depend on how efficiently irregular crossing can be blocked and return as a result of irregular is implemented but it seems to me if these things are done efficiently, then why would a migrant already in Turkey spend money and risk an irregular crossing that in all likely hood will result in them being back in Turkey again and at the 'back of the list' for regular migration to EU ? The plan 'before' this latest one, as I understand it was that Turkey would take back migrants that had crossed to Greece that were not deemed legitimate refugees but those that were would not be sent back. In comparison to that proposal this one seems much more practical to me.

Jerry wrote: The scheme is a bloody nonsense, The EU should help construct better temporary accommodation in Turkey until the refugees can return home.


As I understand it the EU plan is to do both. Help Turkey (cash) to improve the conditions of those migrants in Turkey to remain there and encourage them to chose to remain there and to deal with those that will still try to reach EU countries no matter how good the conditions in Turkey are, by closing down (making ineffectual) the irregular routes from Turkey to EU countries and replacing them with working safe and controlled regular routes.
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Re: Make or break time for Turkish ties to Civilisation!

Postby Maximus » Tue Mar 08, 2016 3:48 pm

The Eu is getting shafted and by the time European nincompoops realize it the problem will be much worse.

They have not learn anything from dealing with Turkey under the Erdogan regime. Nothing at all. They just keep exposing Europe to unprecedented risk and manipulation from conniving Turkish officials.

No point in this deal, no point at all.
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Re: Make or break time for Turkish ties to Civilisation!

Postby Jerry » Tue Mar 08, 2016 3:50 pm

Maximus wrote:
Jerry wrote:
Tim Drayton wrote:The point, as I see it, is once a precedent has been set and all those who make the illegal crossing are sent back, people will stop bothering to make this dangerous crossing as they know they will just be summarily returned. Initially, Europe will have to take as many people as they return, and this will start out as a high number, but this number should dwindle away to virtually zero once people realise that there is no point.


Will it? Or will it start a merry-go-round. Make the illegal crossing - get sent back to Turkey - join the queue to gain legitimate entry to the EU. If the migrants in Turkey are not made too welcome or comfortable they will soon figure out how to gain legitimate entry to the EU even if it's delayed by months or even years. The scheme is a bloody nonsense, The EU should help construct better temporary accommodation in Turkey until the refugees can return home.


European nincompoop leaders do a deal with the devil.


Exactly, instead of submitting to Turkey's demands they should have told them that the Customs Union will be suspended and tourists will be advised not to visit Turkey if they don't co-operate. Sooner or later Turkey will push its luck too far and then perhaps the civilised world will realise that it's run by a bunch of murderous thugs and pull the plug on it.
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Re: Make or break time for Turkish ties to Civilisation!

Postby erolz66 » Tue Mar 08, 2016 3:56 pm

Maximus wrote:European nincompoop leaders do a deal with the devil.


Who else can the EU do a deal with to stop the flow of irregular migration from Turkey to EU (Greece) other than Turkey ?

Maximus wrote:There is no point in this deal. One comes, one gos back, one comes back again and Turkey gets paid for it and continue to play European nincompoop leaders for mugs.


In 2015 over one million migrants arrived in the EU (most in Greece) via irregular means, leading to Greece being unable to meet it's obligations re registration and processing of such arrivals, leading in turn to individual Schgen members instituting emergency temporary controls on their boarders, leading to FYROM closing (or near closing) it's boarder with Greece, leaving 10,000 of stranded migrants stuck in Greece. This 'pointless' proposal seeks to stop / massively reduce all of that - so to me not so pointless really.

Maximus wrote: On top of that, Europe opens their house to Turks (Read anyone holding Turkish Papers) to come and go freely.


The proposal is to remove the need for Turkish citizens to have to get a visa to enter Schengen countries, for 90 or 180 days. Currently they first need to get a visa, after this proposed change they will not. Schengen countries , not EU - meaning that if this goes ahead and until the RoC joins Schengen, it will still be able to stop 'settlers' crossing the Green line (unless they have a visa which they would never get). After the RoC joins schengen and if this proposal goes ahead they will then no longer be able to do so, unless the Green line regulations are specifically amended.
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Re: Make or break time for Turkish ties to Civilisation!

Postby Tim Drayton » Tue Mar 08, 2016 3:58 pm

Would you pay a lot of money to cross the Aegean in an inflatable rubber dinghy that might sink in the knowledge that you will certainly be sent back even if you make it? Of course you wouldn't. It all depends on how strictly this rule is enforced in practice.
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Re: Make or break time for Turkish ties to Civilisation!

Postby Maximus » Tue Mar 08, 2016 4:00 pm

Jerry wrote:
Maximus wrote:
Jerry wrote:
Tim Drayton wrote:The point, as I see it, is once a precedent has been set and all those who make the illegal crossing are sent back, people will stop bothering to make this dangerous crossing as they know they will just be summarily returned. Initially, Europe will have to take as many people as they return, and this will start out as a high number, but this number should dwindle away to virtually zero once people realise that there is no point.


Will it? Or will it start a merry-go-round. Make the illegal crossing - get sent back to Turkey - join the queue to gain legitimate entry to the EU. If the migrants in Turkey are not made too welcome or comfortable they will soon figure out how to gain legitimate entry to the EU even if it's delayed by months or even years. The scheme is a bloody nonsense, The EU should help construct better temporary accommodation in Turkey until the refugees can return home.


European nincompoop leaders do a deal with the devil.


Exactly, instead of submitting to Turkey's demands they should have told them that the Customs Union will be suspended and tourists will be advised not to visit Turkey if they don't co-operate. Sooner or later Turkey will push its luck too far and then perhaps the civilised world will realise that it's run by a bunch of murderous thugs and pull the plug on it.


I agree, the EU just keeps making mistakes in their dealings with turkey.

i don't see this as a breakthrough agreement. i see it as an opportunity for the Turks to up their connivance and manipulation of the crisis to benefit themselves and screw Europe over some more. Its also one step closer to the realization that they will have to pull the plug on that god forsaken country but at a much higher risk to Europe.
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Re: Make or break time for Turkish ties to Civilisation!

Postby Jerry » Tue Mar 08, 2016 4:03 pm

erolz66 wrote:
Jerry wrote: Will it? Or will it start a merry-go-round. Make the illegal crossing - get sent back to Turkey - join the queue to gain legitimate entry to the EU.


Of course this will depend on how efficiently irregular crossing can be blocked and return as a result of irregular is implemented but it seems to me if these things are done efficiently, then why would a migrant already in Turkey spend money and risk an irregular crossing that in all likely hood will result in them being back in Turkey again and at the 'back of the list' for regular migration to EU ? The plan 'before' this latest one, as I understand it was that Turkey would take back migrants that had crossed to Greece that were not deemed legitimate refugees but those that were would not be sent back. In comparison to that proposal this one seems much more practical to me.

Jerry wrote: The scheme is a bloody nonsense, The EU should help construct better temporary accommodation in Turkey until the refugees can return home.


As I understand it the EU plan is to do both. Help Turkey (cash) to improve the conditions of those migrants in Turkey to remain there and encourage them to chose to remain there and to deal with those that will still try to reach EU countries no matter how good the conditions in Turkey are, by closing down (making ineffectual) the irregular routes from Turkey to EU countries and replacing them with working safe and controlled regular routes.


Many of the migrants have been in Turkey for five years but it's only during the last two years that the mass exodus started. How come? It's because Turkey decided to turn a blind eye on the matter and was quite happy to shit on Greece. They don't need to patrol the sea to stop the majority of the people smuggling, they simply have to find the source of supply for the rubber boats and outboard motors that are imported. A couple of months ago a British reporter said that outside a boat dealer in Izmir he saw openly for sale piles of rubber inflatables. Turkish efforts to stem the flow are a joke, they have used these poor people to screw concessions out of the EU that go beyond solving the problem of immigration into Europe.
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Re: Make or break time for Turkish ties to Civilisation!

Postby Maximus » Tue Mar 08, 2016 4:10 pm

Tim Drayton wrote:Would you pay a lot of money to cross the Aegean in an inflatable rubber dinghy that might sink in the knowledge that you will certainly be sent back even if you make it? Of course you wouldn't. It all depends on how strictly this rule is enforced in practice.


Would you pay Erdogan to take back all irregular migrants crossing to Europe from Turkey, then take one back from Turkey for every one returned?

Then open Europe to 70 odd million Turks, half of which support a terrorist regime?
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Re: Make or break time for Turkish ties to Civilisation!

Postby erolz66 » Tue Mar 08, 2016 4:11 pm

Jerry wrote: Exactly, instead of submitting to Turkey's demands they should have told them that the Customs Union will be suspended and tourists will be advised not to visit Turkey if they don't co-operate. Sooner or later Turkey will push its luck too far and then perhaps the civilised world will realise that it's run by a bunch of murderous thugs and pull the plug on it.


The EU knows who and what Erdogan is I think. Just as they know that they have to deal with Turkey anyway in regards to this migration crisis, for to fail to do so would lead to even worse outcomes for the EU generally (and Greece disproportionately). They could try and secure what they want (and indeed need) from Turkey by threats (economic) rather than agreement , as you suggest. So far it seem they are not going down this route.
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Re: Make or break time for Turkish ties to Civilisation!

Postby Jerry » Tue Mar 08, 2016 4:12 pm

Tim Drayton wrote:Would you pay a lot of money to cross the Aegean in an inflatable rubber dinghy that might sink in the knowledge that you will certainly be sent back even if you make it? Of course you wouldn't. It all depends on how strictly this rule is enforced in practice.


Supply and demand Tim, the smugglers won't want to lose their lucrative trade, they may drop the price sufficiently with a "promise" that ultimately the migrant will gain legitimate entry. Of course there's a risk but if you look at the figures the odds are good.
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