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Brexit ..... The Movie

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Re: Brexit ..... The Movie

Postby Robin Hood » Fri Sep 09, 2016 12:25 pm

GreekIslandGirl wrote:I see the 'keep them optimistic' strategy is working on people like Londonrake who are happy to believe all is well because there is ......................... "silence".

Meanwhile, those in the know are quietly packing their bags and exiting ....


Do you have any tangible evidence to support the statement that '.... those in the know are quietly packing their bags and exiting ?' :?:
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Re: Brexit ..... The Movie

Postby GreekIslandGirl » Fri Sep 09, 2016 12:49 pm

Robin Hood wrote:
GreekIslandGirl wrote:I see the 'keep them optimistic' strategy is working on people like Londonrake who are happy to believe all is well because there is ......................... "silence".

Meanwhile, those in the know are quietly packing their bags and exiting ....


Do you have any tangible evidence to support the statement that '.... those in the know are quietly packing their bags and exiting ?' :?:


Yes, thank you, I do. :D
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Re: Brexit ..... The Movie

Postby Paphitis » Fri Sep 09, 2016 2:26 pm

Right, the sky is not going to fall in on Britain. In fact, over the longer term, Britain will be in a much stronger position outside the EU and still will inevitably end up with a FTA with the EU even though the Eurozone still finds enormous technical challenges ahead and might not survive itself. I say that because if Italy go the way of Greece, then Eurozone is in enormous trouble. And I hope Italy are ok for everyone's sake.

Australia and many other countries are negotiating FTAs with the EU. This should conclude in 2017. It adds to the TPP Agreements with 12 pacific rim nations opening a market that exceeds that of the EU by threefold. The EU is not very important to Australia like China, USA, Japan, South Korea and India are. This is where the action will be for the next 100 years.

And Australia is in a much more better position than any of the EU countries are because it will have a FTA without having to abide by any restrictions, or join the single currency. We will still trade in AUD and have our own autonomous Central Bank just like the UK has.

However, Australia has already set up committees which are already meeting with UK officials in order to pen out the future Australia/UK trade deal. There can't be an agreement unless their is a BREXIT and at the moment the UK will still be covered under the Australian/EU FTA deal. Hence, it is of lower priority because there has been no BREXIT yet.

The UK will in all likelihood end up with FTA deals with New Zealand, Canada and USA.

As far as Australia is concerned, it is not possible for Australia to not have a deal with the UK. They share the same Head of State and even the Union Jack. So Australia will always come through for Britain and Australian trade will even favour Britain if it came down to it and Britain was doing it tough. I think the same applies for NZ, Canada and USA. It is total bullshit that they will favour the EU over Britain as Obama said in an effort to scare the a Brexiters. Not true! Echelon and all that and blood is always thicker than water and there are massive connections between Britain, Ireland, and Germany with the likes of USA/Australia. For crying out loud, Australia and USA might as well unite as one country because it's basically one ethnos and it isn't just about those Anglo Saxon roots but more importantly those German and Irish roots. Look at how many times had elected an Irish PM or President. Kennedy, Keating...

The connections are so huge that the USA and Australian Governments were even funding the IRA's Sinn Fein years ago. A terrorist organization according to Britain.

And at the same time, the King of Greece still enjoys his official titles in Australia and is revered by the Australian German community (20% of Australia) but loathed by most Greeks.

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-0 ... fmredir=sm
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Re: Brexit ..... The Movie

Postby Paphitis » Fri Sep 09, 2016 2:38 pm

Oh and btw, trade between Australia and the EU is far more significant than most people think.

Australia and France just signed the biggest Defence contract on the planet! There is no bigger Defence procurement anywhere on the planet as we speak.

The deal is to build 12 French Shortfin submarines in Australia at a cost of $80 Billion AUD or some 7.66 billion per boat.

The French are currently getting caned at the G20 due to the security leaks. If it continues, they will cancel the contract and go elsewhere.

BTW, it would cost less than that to build a USS Nimitz Class Aircraft Carrier than it is to build just one of these submarines so just imagine the secrecy and technology exchanges here.
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Re: Brexit ..... The Movie

Postby Tim Drayton » Fri Sep 09, 2016 3:40 pm

Good to hear from you again, cobber (if I may be so familiar). Let's avoid the man of straw fallacy, though, shall we? I don't think anybody has gone as far as saying that "the sky is going to fall in on Britain" although the consequences will be dire unless a Norway or Switzerland style agreement can be negotiated, in which case the UK can continue to trade freely with the rest of the continent. Even so, this seems pretty daft to me - more or less being bound by all EU rules and regulations without having a seat at the table where they are drawn up and being able to help to shape them. Never mind the money and time that will be consumed in making all these trade deals, when ready made deals are in place and countries like Australia are keen to make new ones with the whole bloc. Some people have made estimates of the cost of making trade deals with the world and come up with phenomenal sums - ones that dwarf the amounts that were supposedly going to be released for the health service post exit. You might as well stay in and push for the kind of Europe you want, if you ask me. Yes, the EU and the euro are in deep trouble, but this was all ushered in by the 2008 financial crisis and this was not entirely the EU's fault by any means. I hope that common sense will prevail and the European project can be salvaged. This, it seems to me, calls for a step away from lofty plans for ever increasing unity for the time being - and you really cant do this at a faster pace than the people of the continent are ready for - and for attention to be given to solving more immediate and pressing problems instead. Something akin to the "One step backwards, two steps forwards" approach with which Lenin heralded the New Economic Policy.

I don't see how anybody who cares about the Western alliance can regard the prospect of either the UK leaving the EU, or the EU collapsing, with delight. Both events play into the hands of people like Putin.
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Re: Brexit ..... The Movie

Postby Paphitis » Fri Sep 09, 2016 3:53 pm

Tim Drayton wrote:Good to hear from you again, cobber (if I may be so familiar). Let's avoid the man of straw fallacy, though, shall we? I don't think anybody has gone as far as saying that "the sky is going to fall in on Britain" although the consequences will be dire unless a Norway or Switzerland style agreement can be negotiated, in which case the UK can continue to trade freely with the rest of the continent. Even so, this seems pretty daft to me - more or less being bound by all EU rules and regulations without having a seat at the table where they are drawn up and being able to help to shape them. Never mind the money and time that will be consumed in making all these trade deals, when ready made deals are in place and countries like Australia are keen to make new ones with the whole bloc. Some people have made estimates of the cost of making trade deals with the world and come up with phenomenal sums - ones that dwarf the amounts that were supposedly going to be released for the health service post exit. You might as well stay in and push for the kind of Europe you want, if you ask me. Yes, the EU and the euro are in deep trouble, but this was all ushered in by the 2008 financial crisis and this was not entirely the EU's fault by any means. I hope that common sense will prevail and the European project can be salvaged. This, it seems to me, calls for a step away from lofty plans for ever increasing unity for the time being - and you really cant do this at a faster pace than the people of the continent are ready for - and for attention to be given to solving more immediate and pressing problems instead. Something akin to the "One step backwards, two steps forwards" approach with which Lenin heralded the New Economic Policy.

I don't see how anybody who cares about the Western alliance can regard the prospect of either the UK leaving the EU, or the EU collapsing, with delight. Both events play into the hands of people like Putin.


Tim,

thank you! But having a seat at the table and forging EU policy is all well and good for countries like the USA, and Australia etc. but it isn't that good for Britain itself because Britain doesn't and can't get its way all the time and it is forced to abide by all kinds of stupid things it would rather not. Britain is better off doing it all in house just like it use to. It would have been great for USA and Australia because we would enjoy the presence of our very own stooge in the EU Parliament. Fortunately, we still have other stooges who are always eager to present our positions in the EU Parliament. Britain is strong enough to go it alone, and it has a lot of high quality manufacturing which is up there with the best in the world.

This is not true kind of Europe I want myself. For me, it is a false deck of cards. I am adament the that Greece itself would not have faced the calamity it did and still faces by being a part of the Eurozone. What happened to Greece with 50% youth unemployment should not have happened under its own sovereign monetary system and nationalized Central Bank pulling all the levers to keep interest rates in check. There are other problems that contributed for sure, not just the Eurozone, but the Euro was a significant factor.

Countries, all countries, sitting on a mountain of debt will need to consider their positions very carefully.

Now, if every man and their dog are able to negotiate a FTA with the EU, including USA and Australia, there is no reason why the UK will not have a FTA unless the EU decide to punish the UK but they will only be punishing themselves because the UK will just press on with FTAs with USA, Australia, Canada and NZ. If they are smart, they will try and get into the Asia Pacific TPP agreement if possible which is far greater than the EU but without all the baggage that comes with the EU and we will be happy to have them. Then the EU will be begging the UK because they will OWN Brussels one day.

What Britain needs is to be in control of its own Central Bank, its own money, make its own policies and laws, be in control of its own borders and allow whoever they want in their own country, control its own airspace, its own military as part of NATO, and forget about the EU. Greece and Cyprus were a BIG wake up call. I am dismayed Greece itself didn't make a stand like Britain and tolerated all the ridicule and blackmail. The EU behaved like economic terrorists.

The worse case scenario I see for Britain is that there will be some adjustment issues and problems immediately after BREXIT. These issues will be short lived though and the country will quickly find its feet.

The FTSE is currently higher today than it was before Britons voted in favour of BREXIT. It took them 2 weeks to regain all the losses from the crash.
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Re: Brexit ..... The Movie

Postby Tim Drayton » Fri Sep 09, 2016 4:22 pm

Paphitis wrote:The FTSE is currently higher today than it was before Britons voted in favour of BREXIT. It took them 2 weeks to regain all the losses from the crash.


Well, you have to place that in context. London is such an international market that many of the largest companies quoted there are international and their fortunes have little to do with those of the UK. This is especially true of the FTSE 100. For this to jump back after the initial shock is no surprise, especially when you consider that the index itself is valued in Sterling, which has been devalued. In fact, for the FTSE 100 to regain its value in Sterling terms still represents a fall in terms of other currencies. Of course, huge multinational companies have an intrinsic valuation in dollar or euro terms, and that value will be reflected in its share price. If the currency those shares are valued in falls, the share price must rise if that company has an intrinsic value in other currencies. Everything must be interpreted correctly.

In the same way, it is no great surprise to see an increase in manufacturing in a country whose currency has been devalued. It is basic text book economics and, while of course welcome, it is the logical consequence of a lower pound and does not in itself point to increased strength. Add to that the fact that at the moment the UK retains its EU membership and so can trade freely with the bloc and with the rest of the world under trade agreements negotiated by that block, and you can see that this represents a man of clay if you want to build up an argument that this augurs well for the UK's ability to export when/if it leaves the EU.
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Re: Brexit ..... The Movie

Postby Tim Drayton » Fri Sep 09, 2016 4:26 pm

Paphitis wrote:
Now, if every man and their dog are able to negotiate a FTA with the EU, including USA and Australia, there is no reason why the UK will not have a FTA.


Yes, but that is not exactly the point. The devil is in the detail. There will certainly be some kind of trade deal between the UK and the EU, but how advantageous for the UK will its terms be? I think it is totally nuts for a country the size of the UK (and let's face it - in the modern world only a few countries can exercise full sovereignty in the world and I am afraid that the UK is not one of them) to walk out of the largest trade block in the world that is on its own doorstep.
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Re: Brexit ..... The Movie

Postby Paphitis » Fri Sep 09, 2016 4:42 pm

Tim Drayton wrote:
Paphitis wrote:The FTSE is currently higher today than it was before Britons voted in favour of BREXIT. It took them 2 weeks to regain all the losses from the crash.


Well, you have to place that in context. London is such an international market that many of the largest companies quoted there are international and their fortunes have little to do with those of the UK. This is especially true of the FTSE 100. For this to jump back after the initial shock is no surprise, especially when you consider that the index itself is valued in Sterling, which has been devalued. In fact, for the FTSE 100 to regain its value in Sterling terms still represents a fall in terms of other currencies. Of course, huge multinational companies have an intrinsic valuation in dollar or euro terms, and that value will be reflected in its share price. If the currency those shares are valued in falls, the share price must rise if that company has an intrinsic value in other currencies. Everything must be interpreted correctly.

In the same way, it is no great surprise to see an increase in manufacturing in a country whose currency has been devalued. It is basic text book economics and, while of course welcome, it is the logical consequence of a lower pound and does not in itself point to increased strength. Add to that the fact that at the moment the UK retains its EU membership and so can trade freely with the bloc and with the rest of the world under trade agreements negotiated by that block, and you can see that this represents a man of clay if you want to build up an argument that this augurs well for the UK's ability to export when/if it leaves the EU.



Yes maybe there is still a technical loss because of the current value of the Sterling. But the way the FTSE is going, it should recover those losses too.

But how long shall we expect the Sterling to remain low? It was in a similar position is 2008 and 2009 and recovered. It will recover again.

And this is not what the doomsdayers were saying. I remember the FTSE losing over 600 points each day for 2 days. More than 12% and then on the third day alone it recovered 300 points or something like that and 2 weeks later it was breaking 2 year records.

It was totally ridiculous.

And for me, this is the measure and benchmark to watch. It shows great confidence in the British economy for Banks and corporations to once again flood the British markets.

In fact, a lot of people made a lot of money out of it due to short selling. Sell before and buy back low! Everyone knew the market was going to tumble.
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Re: Brexit ..... The Movie

Postby Robin Hood » Fri Sep 09, 2016 4:49 pm

LR and myself have a history going way back where we disagree on just about every subject under the Sun. Brexit seems to be the only occasion where there has, in the main, been agreement. The thread, if you look at the OP (The Video), was intended to try and explain what each camp on the referendum seemed unable to supply ..... some factual information. The vote has been cast, the result is known and the losers now seem to have high-jacked the thread to take every opportunity to cast the views for the future of the UK in a bad light, to support their doom and gloom scenario.

IMO: Brexit will be good for the UK in the long run ..............

The industrial revolution started in England, which was also militarily powerful. Their manufacturing ability created an Empire and enhanced their military power. All Empires are relatively short lived and the British Empire declined drastically after WWII, to be replaced by the newly expanding American Empire which has peaked and is now also in decline, hence all the wars. A new Empire is now rising to face off the dying ones, an Empire from the East..... Asia!

Even after WWII the UK still had a manufacturing base to greatly support the economy with our exports. In the mid 70’s Mrs. Thatcher decided to place the emphasis of her economic policies on the City and allowed the manufacturing centres to go into a steep decline. We had as a result some of the highest out of work figures in recent times. I think she made a very fundamental mistake. Instead of exporting goods we now exported manufacturing job’s, our technology and skills, taught others how to use them and then imported what we needed from them. But, the multinational corporations made greatly increased profits using this pool of cheap labour.

The City and the financial institutions that blossomed from Thatcher’s preference for the pseudo economy of unbridled (little control) capitalism in preference to a wealth creating industrial base, has left the UK today with very little wealth creating industry but a greedy and bloated financial system that produces nothing! The REAL economy is fragile, a shadow of what it was in the heyday of Empire but the pseudo economy primarily based on debt, speculation and assets, is now dominant. The banking system is parasitic upon the real wealth creating economy as it sucks the life out of it because the bankers have realised that it is easier to make ‘money’ out of ‘money’ than it is to create real wealth. If created money does not go into the real economy it cannot be included in a Nations GDP .......... it is effectively dead money wrapped up in static 'financial' assets, the value of which can change dramatically in the space of a few hours of trading.

The financial economy is no more than a house of cards and is heading for a Global collapse of monumental proportion’s that will be enough to take down those economies that are within its dominance. This is a simple fact! This situation was within hours of becoming reality in late 2008 but was prevented by an unprecedented banking bail-out by the FED. The Global economy has never really recovered from that and there has been virtually no changes within the system that created the 2008 disaster! The financial and banking system is a money making Ponzi scheme and, never in history, has a Ponzi scheme survived. The UK’s reliance on it is the biggest threat to the UK’s future.

IMO: Withdrawing from the EU will hopefully see the investment banking and markets financial sector leave the UK and establish itself in Europe. (A very simple operation I am led to believe?) This will then force the UK to re-establish its manufacturing industries to create much needed jobs and supply the manufactured goods we need. The only country in the EU that has a manufacturing base to largely support its economy is Germany and it is the EU’s wealthiest country as a result.

More than 40% of the EU budget goes on the Common Agricultural Policy and the major beneficiary is France followed by Spain/Germany (The UK is fifth in the ranking). The UK contributes to those subsidies and without the subsidies French and German farmers cannot survive. The other EU Members will have to fork out more to replace the subsidies that the UK previously contributed. Although the UK benefits from farm subsidies it is infinitely more efficient than the French farmers and will survive.

This is why I do not believe that the countries of the EU will let the Commissioners create a situation where their economies will be affected just to 'punish' the UK .......... the ideal solution would be to carry on as now but without the Federal implications.

If the financial crash comes before the UK has established a wealth creating economy, then the UK will go down the pan ...... but it will not be alone. The EU, the US and most economies in the Western Sphere of influence will go down the pan too. If the UK has a solid and growing industrial base it will be able to ride out the storm and gain from a re-structured financial/banking system that will put the banks back into line as service sector providers acting as an intermediary between State and borrowers.

If you want some confirmation of this scenario don’t bother trying to find any details in the MSM, you will have to delve much deeper than that!

There is no doubt it will be a rough ride, and on the evidence so far, the EU Commission will make every attempt to see to it that the UK suffers, which will in turn hasten their own demise and the Federal Europe Plan will evaporate in favour of a European Economic Community.

Fasten your seat belts! :roll:
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