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Brexit ..... The Movie

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Re: Brexit ..... The Movie

Postby Pyrpolizer » Fri May 20, 2016 11:54 pm

Robin Hood wrote:TD:
In the first place, the UK DOES have its own currency (it's called the pound) and its own independent central bank, and as a member state prior to the introduction of the euro, is not obliged to adopt the latter, so that is a non-issue.

I would not consider the Central Bank (BoE) to be independent. It is part of the banking system and is ‘controlled’ by commercial banking interests not independently owned by the people i.e. government. The pound is also an internationally traded reserve currency which puts it ‘at risk’ to market forces. The Brits do not have control of its value, but of course the same applies to all reserve currencies ..... they can be attacked, which is why control of the system is essential to the Worlds only Super power whose banks dominate the global banking system......... the USA.

If you look at any large land mass it is broken down into smaller parcels and can be called Provinces, Counties, regions etc and each with its own local government. That applies to the US, Russia, China, Europe, Australia etc. and each geo-defined area has its own form of local administration but is applied to matters that are usually related to each individual geographical entity, but internally. When you get a central government that is a layer of administration over several smaller administrations, where collective policies are applied, it has to be considered as Federal, at least in form. One tune .... one conductor?

IMO: I don’t think what they have in the US is healthy as you have some 50 odd smaller administrations but a single seat of international political and military power. They are the political/military equivalent of ‘too-bid-to-fail’ banks, as the smaller entities have insufficient control over what their central government does to affect their international influence/interference. A single or even a few dissenting voices can be squashed by the sheer weight of influences the majority can exert. That now happens on the grand scale ..... one power attempts to overrule all others. Because of this, I believe this should be avoided at all costs in Europe as it is already becoming an extension of the US global sphere of influence and is why I believe Obama came to the UK to carry the message to Cameron that the UK WILL remain in the EU ........... primarily for the benefit of the US.

The problem I see for the UK is that it has an economy which is dominated by banking and financial interests. It is almost a one-horse economy.

I saw this growing in the mid 80’s when, as an engineer I found myself redundant after some 12 years with the same company. Much of my time was spent in Europe on company plants, so I was no novice to working away from home. When I started looking there were very few jobs in the UK in the wealth creating industries, to be had. I had to follow the work to survive, the UK Govt. didn’t help as they would not allow people whose jobs were transitory (say 6-18 months) to get tax relief on travel and subsistence costs of working around the country to obtain work. Unfortunately, Mr. Tebbit’s advice to get on your bike to find a job was OK in theory, but they taxed you on your bike! All the jobs that were available were those in the greatly expanding financial sector and these were not wealth creating .... something Mrs. Thatcher managed to over look. So I reluctantly went abroad to work. I never returned to the UK to work.

The UK economy is now very much dependent of the financial sector for its survival. In spite of comments here to the contrary, things are not all hunky-dory in the global financial and banking system.

The fact that the financial system is based primarily on computer transactions, that happen very quickly and over a global net work, it would not be too difficult, for instance, for the Germans and the French to take that dominance away from the City of London. If this was backed by a major power with whom we supposedly had a ‘special’ relationship, the UK would be finished and simply an historical has been, in all spheres of influence.

The economy in the UK is about as secure as the shell of an egg! The UK has very little industry left and would be unable to even remotely counter an attack on its financial/banking sector. The alternative for the UK is to change how the banking and financial system works and greatly reduce its influence on the real economy. This has been recognised by many politicians ...... even Trump, but that is a taboo subject, not only on the forum but in the international political/diplomatic sphere of influence.

I still believe the UK will stay in the EU even if it means fiddling the result of the referendum ..... but either way, the UK and eventually Europe is in for a very rough few years ..... maybe even globally.


Australia is already greatly under the influence of the US and will follow the US no matter what as a de facto member of the US/NATO alliance. It also has an economy that is greatly dependent on a single source of income. Natural resources, that it sells mainly to China. If the Chinese/Asean economy collapses, this will have a great effect on the Australian economy. Although it is nothing like the degree of dominance the financial/banking system has on the UK economy ........ as the Australians do have other goods to export!


Great post I liked it.

Now about the future of the EU everybody seems to ignore the new rising giants, Poland and Romania.There's a good chance they will dominate after 20 years as most factories and heavy industries move there (mainly to Poland).

Perhaps Paphitis who admires UK's financial system could explain us what of essence that system is actually delivering. Thin air maybe? :wink: I must admit the same system worked fine in Cyprus for about 2 decades. We all became rich, and thought we were clever...
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Re: Brexit ..... The Movie

Postby GreekIslandGirl » Fri May 20, 2016 11:59 pm

I'd seriously like to know what the UK has done for the EU? What good does its membership bring?

The UK has done nothing but moan since it joined. Also, it has gone against popular and safe options and petitioned for Turkey to become a member. Yes, the UK has relentlessly campaigned for Turkey to join and yet now one if its strongest arguments for leaving the EU is that 'one day, Turkey might join' . What?
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Re: Brexit ..... The Movie

Postby Maximus » Sat May 21, 2016 12:34 am

miltiades wrote:
Tim Drayton wrote:The paradox that I pointed to earlier still exists. The odds with the bookmakers ( http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/bri ... hip-result ) make staying in the firm favourite - if anything, the odds have shortened with staying in priced at 1/4 in places - yet the opinion polls suggest that it is neck-and-neck. Can anybody explain this?

Bookies are rarely wrong. Opinion polls often wrong.
The UK will vote to stay in by a substantial margin. Some time back my own prediction is " IN" 60% out 40 %.


Bookies run a book of bets and want to make a profit.

The book dictates what odds are set for each side of the bet. When demand for the brexit (one side of the book) cant cover the bets to remain in the EU (the other side of the book), the bookies adjust the odds to balance it. So what the losers lose can cover and pay for the winnings the winners get. Also, they will make sure that some money is left over so they can make a profit for making the market.

Bookies dont care about being right or wrong, they dont try to predict the future to set their odds. They care about running a book to make a profit.

So a bookies odds basically reflects the opinions of the punters.
Last edited by Maximus on Sat May 21, 2016 12:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Brexit ..... The Movie

Postby Paphitis » Sat May 21, 2016 12:50 am

Pyrpolizer wrote:
Great post I liked it.

Now about the future of the EU everybody seems to ignore the new rising giants, Poland and Romania.There's a good chance they will dominate after 20 years as most factories and heavy industries move there (mainly to Poland).

Perhaps Paphitis who admires UK's financial system could explain us what of essence that system is actually delivering. Thin air maybe? :wink: I must admit the same system worked fine in Cyprus for about 2 decades. We all became rich, and thought we were clever...


The UK would be lost without its Central Bank BoE.

Central Banks around the globe have a number of purposes and it is all for the relative good of the people and the Banks. You having seen what happened in Cyprus should be more aware than most as to what a Central Bank can do.

Naturally, they are at the mercy of International Markets, but the have a number of controls at their disposal.

The primary function of a Central Bank is to control the countries money supply by setting interest rates. Reducing interests rates means more money supply and increasing interest rates means less money supply.

If you are in recession, Central Banks generally lower interest rates to encourage borrowing and increase the money supply in order to stimulate the economy. If the economy is heating up, they increase interest rates to slow the economy down otherwise there will be a crash.

If Banking Liquidity is reduced and Banks are stressed, they increase interest rates and so on.

They also control to some extent inflation. They usually have their inflationary target zone and lower or increase interest rates to achieve this target.

Central Banks also act as a Lender to Government and also a Lender to Banks as a last resort. Bank of Cyprus and Laiki did not have this at their disposal. The ECB would not lend the money to the Cypriot Banks because it would have devalued the Euro and cost Germany Billions worth of trade value. So you got it in the neck.

In simple terms, Central Bank keeps in check the boom/bust cycle. They also monitor the Banks for their liquidity making sure they are meeting minimum legislated levels and also monitor their stress and Balance Sheets.

They can also set the value of the currency which is very important. They can devalue it or provide conditions for it to appreciate. This has benefits to countries like the UK which have significant trade. Very important for big trade Nations like Germany, USA, Canada, Japan, China, Australia and so on.

You are crazy to think Central Banks have no purpose. Without a Central Bank, the Banks have a free for all. It would mean that Commercial Banks are in charge of the economy and interest rates. Whilst I don't believe the Banks would deliberately do anything wrong, because they would in effect be cutting their own lunch if the screw the economy up, there is basically increased chances that things would go wrong plus there would be dangers of conflict of interest placing commercial entities in charge of interest rates for instance. They would milk the system to get maximum benefit without going too far to screw the market up hence destroying their profits. It could be dangerous. The Central Bank is impartial.

You guys think Central Banks serve no purpose. Well you need to explain what you would have in its place whilst maintaining free market principles. If you don't have this free market, money will flee. The rich will abandon ship and take their money out to places like Panama, and you would be left in soup lines to get your 1200 calories for the day! :D

Without a central Bank, you end up like Greece or Cyprus potentially. Greece and Cyprus never had an issue when they had their own Central Bank and currency.

What we are seeing today is the bust party of the natural economic cycle. It isn't the first time and it won't nbe the last. But what follows the big bust is a big boom.

In order to soften the blows, you need a Central Bank. You are very exposed not having your own Central Bank. Very exposed!
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Re: Brexit ..... The Movie

Postby Paphitis » Sat May 21, 2016 1:30 am

All of you think you're hard done by and think the Banks are corrupt.

However, I remember a time paying 17% in interest and that was pretty damn tough. But conditions today have never been better. Everyone is gearing up again.

The boom is around the corner as far as I am concerned. Interest rates are predicted to rise in the USA. What does this tell you? It should tell you that the economy there is coming back to life, and of course what would follow is China and the rest of Asia.

I love the Central Bank! The Central Bank is good, it does belong to the people but is independent. The Bankers that work there are indeed Government Servants doing a great and important job as far as I am concerned.

Also don't ever forget Central Banks are just reactive to what the market does. The market is infant all of us and our borrowing habits and what we do with the money. Central Banks only act to either increase activity or slow it down and their actions are based on economic science. Sometimes they think our borrowing habits are unhealthy and they act to slow things down and sometimes they think we aren't borrowing enough in which case they lower interest rates to speeden things up.

Furthermore, regulation surrounding the Banks is set to tighten in the wake of Banking Collapses in USA, Cyprus, Greece and Iceland. It's a 3 pahse roll out with Banks now required to maintain 10% liquidity as opposed to the much mentioned 3%. The idea is that Banks are to maintain higher levels of liquidity.

The advantage: less chance of Banks getting stressed and collapsing.
The disadvantage: borrowing costs will be higher as Banking costs increase. Therefore, less money Banks can lend out, less economic activity and higher unemployment.

It's a double edged sword as is often the case in every economic principle.
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Re: Brexit ..... The Movie

Postby Paphitis » Sat May 21, 2016 1:44 am

Now none of the above has anything to do with BREXIT of course.

I apologize to the forum for letting Robin hood derail this thread to something that is irrelevant to BREXIT.

As I said, every topic is being derailed into Banking and Finance by a delusional old man who supports Assad and Putin as well as believe that the Americans are spraying you all with chemicals to turn you into mutants. He is a knuckle dragging flat-earther. :lol:

The UK will maintain its Central Bank if it exits the EU. They are mighty fortunate to still have the BoE as part of the EU, as well as their own currency.

BREXIT will not result in any Bank collapse or the demise of free market principles or Capitalism. It will be business as usual for the UK and everyone else.
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Re: Brexit ..... The Movie

Postby Robin Hood » Sat May 21, 2016 6:35 am

Paphitis wrote:Now none of the above has anything to do with BREXIT of course.

I apologize to the forum for letting Robin hood derail this thread to something that is irrelevant to BREXIT.

As I said, every topic is being derailed into Banking and Finance by a delusional old man who supports Assad and Putin as well as believe that the Americans are spraying you all with chemicals to turn you into mutants. He is a knuckle dragging flat-earther. :lol:

The UK will maintain its Central Bank if it exits the EU. They are mighty fortunate to still have the BoE as part of the EU, as well as their own currency.

BREXIT will not result in any Bank collapse or the demise of free market principles or Capitalism. It will be business as usual for the UK and everyone else.



Just for the record ......... RH started this thread. So who is derailing the thread? Good of him to apologise though ..... but please, not on my behalf! :roll: :roll:


A Brexit or not, WILL effect the financial markets and the strength of the Pound Sterling.

The rest of the post is just the usual personal insults. Rather childish but he does provide a bit of entertainment. It is just a pity that his 'advice' on the banking and monetary system is basically ..... completely wrong but loaded with 'words' he has picked up from his searches on the internet. He does not understand the basics and is therefore rather silly and ill-informed with his arguments !

To counter Paphitis 'expert financial advice' that everything is great in the financial world ..... the following will give a better insight:

The money seagulls are heading to shore!

Sailors say that, when all the seagulls head to shore at once, it’s time to do the same. It’s a sure sign that a storm is on its way.

If you think you know what lies ahead better than these people, then these articles will waste your time. But if you think they may have a seagull-like instinct for coming financial storms, then pour yourself a cup of coffee and read these stories very, very carefully. G. Edward Griffin 2015 May 20


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VL7BIsahRpY

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2016/05/16/silver-gold-futures-market-000868
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Re: Brexit ..... The Movie

Postby Paphitis » Sat May 21, 2016 8:21 am

As you can see folks, he starts threads, then changes the topic to Banking and Finance! :lol:

Banking and Finance and money doesn't exist, it is created etc. :lol:

What on earth BREXIT has to do with Banking and money creation is anyone's guess! :roll:

And once again, we get sources from Marxist anti Capitalists who are so eager to tell us all the ills of our financial system. :lol: :lol: :lol:

As if Marxism has ever proven to be the sure fire way to prosperity like we have had for many decades. They have failed time and time again. :lol:

MY ADVICE TO FORUMERS! IGNORE THE TROLLS POSTS AND PROPAGANDA!

As if a $264 million investment into a Gold Mine is going to push up inflation. Oh yes, everything is a huge conspiracy. Yet these take overs are common practice and this one is quite a meager one when there are take overs in resources and oil worth Billions. :lol:

Deluded!
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Re: Brexit ..... The Movie

Postby Robin Hood » Sat May 21, 2016 1:52 pm

Paphitis wrote:As you can see folks, he starts threads, then changes the topic to Banking and Finance! :lol:

Banking and Finance and money doesn't exist, it is created etc.

What on earth BREXIT has to do with Banking and money creation is anyone's guess! :roll:

And once again, we get sources from Marxist anti Capitalists who are so eager to tell us all the ills of our financial system. :lol:

As if Marxism has ever proven to be the sure fire way to prosperity like we have had for many decades. They have failed time and time again.

MY ADVICE TO FORUMERS! IGNORE THE TROLLS POSTS AND PROPAGANDA!

As if a $264 million investment into a Gold Mine is going to push up inflation. Oh yes, everything is a huge conspiracy. Yet these take overs are common practice and this one is quite a meager one when there are take overs in resources and oil worth Billions. :lol:

Deluded!


My thread Koala ..... so get back up your gum tree!

It's about Brexit = economic consequences = markets, banks and finance or are you having difficulty understanding the concept? It is you that keeps telling us it's the Bankers and Capitalists that keeps the wheels turning or haven't you worked out how they manage that yet? They can also crash the same .....

I think most of the members are intelligent enough to make up their own minds without your advice as to who is a troll and who just likes exchanging reasoned views and comments ....... but you seem to be getting paranoid about it ! As I said before .... try growing up!

Four posts at 00,50, 01.30, 01.44 and 08.21 ..... all about banking ........ and then you blame me . I think you need to see some sort of psychologist or psychiatrist, you are seriously obsessed. (OCD?) I think you like me almost as much as you do Putin and Assad? :roll: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Brexit ..... The Movie

Postby Get Real! » Sat May 21, 2016 2:02 pm

When Cyprus starts contemplating leaving the EU it’ll probably be called the “Sexit”. :lol:
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