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The Pound takes a hammering ..... again!

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Re: The Pound takes a hammering ..... again!

Postby Lordo » Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:17 pm

31 year low does not seem to be a correction. In any case the effect of brexit is not know it will be seen a year after we leave when the free trade with the eu ends. by then of course it will be too late to do anything about it.

i suppose we can always go cap in hand begging to be allowed back in again.
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Re: The Pound takes a hammering ..... again!

Postby Londonrake » Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:29 pm

Lordo wrote:31 year low does not seem to be a correction. In any case the effect of brexit is not know it will be seen a year after we leave when the free trade with the eu ends. by then of course it will be too late to do anything about it.

i suppose we can always go cap in hand begging to be allowed back in again.


That contains a significant amount of rote and speculation. I submit that the last sentence in particular is a fantasy. Don't go holding your breathe.

How many Federation countries do you think would vote to join the EU now, if not already in? Greece? Spain? Ireland? Portugal? Et al.

But this is all old hat.
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Re: The Pound takes a hammering ..... again!

Postby Maximus » Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:40 pm

Paphitis wrote:
Maximus wrote:
The Sterling will recover quicker. It has nothing to do with BREXIT, just uncertainty. Once that is gone, then it's back where it was. In the meantime, there are advantages. Maybe not for your business but for others. It's all swings and roundabouts.


How quick is quickly?

I would not bet on a quick recovery.


I would. Remember, this is nothing new. The Sterling had a more serious meltdown in 2008 and it recovered. This meltdown which isn't really a meltdown at all is BREXIT induced. In other words, it's just investors being spooked away from the Sterling.

Personally, I forecast a recovery within 6 months as the details of the BREXIT road-map are unveiled.

I doubt it will last for 2.5 years.

There is a cost to BREXIT but in the longer term there are huge advantages for Britain as it is still able to enter into FTAs with other countries without the baggage of having to abide by laws made in Brussels in a one size fits all way. A FTA with the USA alone almost replaces all of the EU, then chuck in Canada, Australia, NZ, South Korea and Japan and Britain is in a much stronger position. A FTA with India and China is also advantageous.

You need to see what will be the realities in 10 years time and all I see is positives compared to poor Greece and Cyprus which do not have the same fiscal freedom that Britain does and will have even less in the future.

This BREXIT is now a test case so you better hope it goes ahead without any glitch otherwise EU member countries are in a world of hurt, and nowhere to go. If Britain does this well, then EU countries have an alternative to EU entrapment. They can simply pull the trigger like Britain did and take charge of their own destiny.

This is another Churchill V Day!


What recovery re?

In 2008, sterling was at $2.10 vs the USD, today it is at $1.27. It never recovered to those levels. The trend has been down since then.

if you are talking about shorter term trading that is something else but in no way has it recovered or would I characterize a slight correction as a recovery.

You know what, i am going to go sell some more pounds just because most people get it wrong.

Where would you put your stop? I will put my take profit there.....
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Re: The Pound takes a hammering ..... again!

Postby CBBB » Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:43 pm

Londonrake wrote:Whilst Brexit is flavour-of-the-month and clearly a factor, there are other forces at work in what's currently happening to Sterling:

"Sterling Overvalued by 10-15%’: Vince Cable"

http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/ ... nce-cable/

"UK Exports to Enjoy Brexit Boost as a Severely Overvalued British Pound Starts to Correct Lower"

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-l ... tish-pound

"Sterling: over-bought, over-valued and over here"

http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/201 ... ticle.html

"There's a conspiracy of silence about our over-valued pound"

https://www.theguardian.com/comment/sto ... 04,00.html

"Pound is 'most overvalued currency in the world', analysts claim"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/curr ... claim.html

"Pound Sterling Overvalued vs GBP, EUR say Morgan Stanley and Capital Economics Eyeing Out the Current Account Deficit Once More"

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-l ... d-euro-334

A correction was inevitable at some point and in fact seems to have been delayed/masked by all the referendum hoo-haa.


I'm not reading that lot again!
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Re: The Pound takes a hammering ..... again!

Postby Paphitis » Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:50 pm

Lordo wrote:31 year low does not seem to be a correction. In any case the effect of brexit is not know it will be seen a year after we leave when the free trade with the eu ends. by then of course it will be too late to do anything about it.

i suppose we can always go cap in hand begging to be allowed back in again.


The actress Trade with Europe won't end that easy. It is likely to continue.
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Re: The Pound takes a hammering ..... again!

Postby Paphitis » Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:54 pm

Maximus wrote:
Paphitis wrote:
Maximus wrote:
The Sterling will recover quicker. It has nothing to do with BREXIT, just uncertainty. Once that is gone, then it's back where it was. In the meantime, there are advantages. Maybe not for your business but for others. It's all swings and roundabouts.


How quick is quickly?

I would not bet on a quick recovery.


I would. Remember, this is nothing new. The Sterling had a more serious meltdown in 2008 and it recovered. This meltdown which isn't really a meltdown at all is BREXIT induced. In other words, it's just investors being spooked away from the Sterling.

Personally, I forecast a recovery within 6 months as the details of the BREXIT road-map are unveiled.

I doubt it will last for 2.5 years.

There is a cost to BREXIT but in the longer term there are huge advantages for Britain as it is still able to enter into FTAs with other countries without the baggage of having to abide by laws made in Brussels in a one size fits all way. A FTA with the USA alone almost replaces all of the EU, then chuck in Canada, Australia, NZ, South Korea and Japan and Britain is in a much stronger position. A FTA with India and China is also advantageous.

You need to see what will be the realities in 10 years time and all I see is positives compared to poor Greece and Cyprus which do not have the same fiscal freedom that Britain does and will have even less in the future.

This BREXIT is now a test case so you better hope it goes ahead without any glitch otherwise EU member countries are in a world of hurt, and nowhere to go. If Britain does this well, then EU countries have an alternative to EU entrapment. They can simply pull the trigger like Britain did and take charge of their own destiny.

This is another Churchill V Day!


What recovery re?

In 2008, sterling was at $2.10 vs the USD, today it is at $1.27. It never recovered to those levels. The trend has been down since then.

if you are talking about shorter term trading that is something else but in no way has it recovered or would I characterize a slight correction as a recovery.

You know what, i am going to go sell some more pounds just because most people get it wrong.

Where would you put your stop? I will put my take profit there.....


Go look at the graphs. The Sterling crashed some time ago. Then it recovered. I posted the graph some time ago and I don't need to do it again.

Comparing to the USD alone is not accurate when the USD might be going particularly strong. The correct value for the Sterling is about $1.60 not 2 dollars. That is not going to happen for a long time.

That lines up with the Sterling Vs the Euro which in 2006 was 1.50 and today is 1.13.

Comparing it to USD is not accurate. You should compare it to Euro. It tells a different story.

The USA is a much stronger economy than the EU and it is unencumbered.
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Re: The Pound takes a hammering ..... again!

Postby Maximus » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:03 pm

Paphitis wrote:
Maximus wrote:
Paphitis wrote:
Maximus wrote:
The Sterling will recover quicker. It has nothing to do with BREXIT, just uncertainty. Once that is gone, then it's back where it was. In the meantime, there are advantages. Maybe not for your business but for others. It's all swings and roundabouts.


How quick is quickly?

I would not bet on a quick recovery.


I would. Remember, this is nothing new. The Sterling had a more serious meltdown in 2008 and it recovered. This meltdown which isn't really a meltdown at all is BREXIT induced. In other words, it's just investors being spooked away from the Sterling.

Personally, I forecast a recovery within 6 months as the details of the BREXIT road-map are unveiled.

I doubt it will last for 2.5 years.

There is a cost to BREXIT but in the longer term there are huge advantages for Britain as it is still able to enter into FTAs with other countries without the baggage of having to abide by laws made in Brussels in a one size fits all way. A FTA with the USA alone almost replaces all of the EU, then chuck in Canada, Australia, NZ, South Korea and Japan and Britain is in a much stronger position. A FTA with India and China is also advantageous.

You need to see what will be the realities in 10 years time and all I see is positives compared to poor Greece and Cyprus which do not have the same fiscal freedom that Britain does and will have even less in the future.

This BREXIT is now a test case so you better hope it goes ahead without any glitch otherwise EU member countries are in a world of hurt, and nowhere to go. If Britain does this well, then EU countries have an alternative to EU entrapment. They can simply pull the trigger like Britain did and take charge of their own destiny.

This is another Churchill V Day!


What recovery re?

In 2008, sterling was at $2.10 vs the USD, today it is at $1.27. It never recovered to those levels. The trend has been down since then.

if you are talking about shorter term trading that is something else but in no way has it recovered or would I characterize a slight correction as a recovery.

You know what, i am going to go sell some more pounds just because most people get it wrong.

Where would you put your stop? I will put my take profit there.....


Go look at the graphs. The Sterling crashed some time ago. Then it recovered. I posted the graph some time ago and I don't need to do it again.

Comparing to the USD alone is not accurate when the USD might be going particularly strong. The correct value for the Sterling is about $1.50 not 2 dollars. That is not going to happen for a long time.


That is exactly what I did to make sure I was responding accurately. Its public information.

It fell from $2.10 at its highs towards the end of 2007 to $1.35, then it bounced to $1.75 and traded within this range for 7 years and now it is at $1.27.

Are you calling the correction from $1.35 to $1.75 a recovery?

What other currency do you want to compare the pound to?
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Re: The Pound takes a hammering ..... again!

Postby Maximus » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:09 pm

Here is GBP compared to some other major currencies. (USD, EUR, AUD, CHF, NZD, CAD)

It never recovered. The trend for the GBP has been down since 2008
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
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Re: The Pound takes a hammering ..... again!

Postby Paphitis » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:14 pm

Maximus wrote:Here is GBP compared to some other major currencies. (USD, EUR, AUD, CHF, NZD, CAD)

It never recovered. The trend for the GBP has been down since 2008


Once again you need to compare it to the EURO.

Comparing it to the AUD is pointless because the Australian Dollar is heavily influenced by commodity prices such as Gold, Iron, Coal, and Oil and the Sterling isn't.

If you compare it to the EURO you get an accurate picture of where the Sterling should be which is about 1.60 against the USD and 1.50 against the EURO.

Anything beyond that is just unrealistic and will only occur if the EU or the USA go bust.
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Re: The Pound takes a hammering ..... again!

Postby Londonrake » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:18 pm

CBBB wrote:
Londonrake wrote:Whilst Brexit is flavour-of-the-month and clearly a factor, there are other forces at work in what's currently happening to Sterling:

"Sterling Overvalued by 10-15%’: Vince Cable"

http://www.foremostcurrencygroup.co.uk/ ... nce-cable/

"UK Exports to Enjoy Brexit Boost as a Severely Overvalued British Pound Starts to Correct Lower"

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-l ... tish-pound

"Sterling: over-bought, over-valued and over here"

http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/201 ... ticle.html

"There's a conspiracy of silence about our over-valued pound"

https://www.theguardian.com/comment/sto ... 04,00.html

"Pound is 'most overvalued currency in the world', analysts claim"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/curr ... claim.html

"Pound Sterling Overvalued vs GBP, EUR say Morgan Stanley and Capital Economics Eyeing Out the Current Account Deficit Once More"

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-l ... d-euro-334

A correction was inevitable at some point and in fact seems to have been delayed/masked by all the referendum hoo-haa.


I'm not reading that lot again!


:lol: :lol: :lol:

I keep putting the wrong hat on.
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