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The Forex markets ......

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Re: The Forex markets ......

Postby Tim Drayton » Sat Feb 25, 2017 12:07 pm

Paphitis wrote:
Tim Drayton wrote:
miltiades wrote:Brexit has had an adverse affect on STG , triggering Article 50 will undoubtedly drive STG down further against most currencies. One of course could say that the markets have already discounted this knowing that Brexit and A50 will happen. The prospects for the UK economy do not exactly look rosy once out of the single market. I have always believed that abandoning the EU is a big mistake that will have dire consequences for the UK economy, I do hope that Im wrong.


Even after Article 50 is triggered, this only means that negotiations to leave begin and meanwhile the UK remains in the EU. Some experts say that negotiations will drag on for 10-12 years. Plenty will change in that time.


negotiations have to conclude within 18 months according to the EU with Brexit occurring 6 months after that.

They would be crazy to stretch it out to 12 years. not something that is at all helpful to the EU or Britain.

On the other hand, EU is going to be worried about France so they could make things difficult to send France or marie le pen a nasty little message.


The negotiations can be extended with mutual consent.
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Re: The Forex markets ......

Postby Robin Hood » Sat Feb 25, 2017 12:27 pm

Tim Drayton wrote:There is a theory in the investment world that Sterling will dip to one further low after article 50 is triggered, and then this will be the time to move into Sterling assets, because it will then recover from this low. Just a theory, though.


Maybe just a theory but it sounds sensible! The speculators will no doubt react to A50 and I cannot see their reactions being favourable. Then reality will kick in and the Euro will then be the target, which means the pound would climb against the Euro. Just my slant on it! :roll:
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Re: The Forex markets ......

Postby Londonrake » Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:41 pm

Tim Drayton wrote:The negotiations can be extended with mutual consent.


AFAIUI, if it came to that, all 27 members would be involved in the vote. Although that would not be necessary for the approval of a Brexit deal.

If I may digress? It appears that HMG is facing a double defeat in the HoL. Should they not cave in and it came to a vote, there would be a majority to amend the Brexit Bill to include all 3 million EU members living and/or working in the UK to be given a guarantee of their right to continue to do so. That without any reciprocal arrangement at all for UK people living and working in the EU. The second? To give both Houses the final vote on whether or not to accept a Brexit deal BEFORE THE GOVERNMENT CAN TAKE US OUT. Clearly, an effective veto.

So here we are again. Gina Miller having swanned off, failing to overturn the votes of 17 million plus UK citizens. The people of Britain voted to leave the EU. Their elected members of Parliament voted to approve the Government's plan to do so. However, the unelected HoL now looks set to impose not only a significant delay but the quite likely prospect of overturning the referendum.

Any comments on "Democracy"?

Prediction. There would be blood on the streets.
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Re: The Forex markets ......

Postby Paphitis » Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:59 am

Maximus wrote:Britain is leaving and will be restricted from $19.8 trillion market.

How can Britain recover from that?

Join it again with the same individual agreements with every EU member state. :lol:


that's a big call saying they would be restricted from the EU market. i think they will be like Norway.

In addition, the EU market can easily be replaced with the North American market.

Honestly, I don't think there will be much difference.
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Re: The Forex markets ......

Postby miltiades » Sun Feb 26, 2017 10:41 am

You often hear " The people of Britain voted to leave the EU"
Surely the correct statement should be that a tiny minority of British people voted to leave
After all 17 million out out 65 million is not exactly THE PEOPLE.
I know this is how democracy works. But the statement is wrong that the British people voted to leave.
Take out ...geriatrics, little Englanders know what i mean mate sort of ting like, got ur country back mate ,
I hope you know what I mean :lol:
By the way, our NHS is now ....richer by 350 million bolloucks a week !! :lol: And we not dictated by understanding elected Europeans instead we are dictated to by ...unfortunately elected fucking traffic wardens :lol:
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Re: The Forex markets ......

Postby Tim Drayton » Sun Feb 26, 2017 11:01 am

Yes, 75% of over-65's voted 'Leave' and 75% of under-25's voted 'Remain'. It is not hard to see that the majority sentiment is going to shift as nature takes its toll. A lot depends on whether the EU can get out of the mess it is currently in and rediscover its sense of purpose.
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Re: The Forex markets ......

Postby Paphitis » Sun Feb 26, 2017 11:23 am

Tim Drayton wrote:Yes, 75% of over-65's voted 'Leave' and 75% of under-25's voted 'Remain'. It is not hard to see that the majority sentiment is going to shift as nature takes its toll. A lot depends on whether the EU can get out of the mess it is currently in and rediscover its sense of purpose.


As voters get older, they also get wiser or more conservative and parochial.

the younger ones start seeing all that is wrong with the EU.

I am not so much opposed to the EU as i am opposed to the rubbish bureaucracy and meddling from Brussels, all the legislating and also the Eurozone and EURO.

That EURO has bought misery and poverty to a lot of people.

Unless there is a complete overhaul to accommodate countries like Greece which isn't a Germany, then it is a currency I can't support.

give me the beautiful Drachma any day.
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Re: The Forex markets ......

Postby Tim Drayton » Sun Feb 26, 2017 11:58 am

Paphitis wrote:
Tim Drayton wrote:Yes, 75% of over-65's voted 'Leave' and 75% of under-25's voted 'Remain'. It is not hard to see that the majority sentiment is going to shift as nature takes its toll. A lot depends on whether the EU can get out of the mess it is currently in and rediscover its sense of purpose.


As voters get older, they also get wiser or more conservative and parochial.

the younger ones start seeing all that is wrong with the EU.

I am not so much opposed to the EU as i am opposed to the rubbish bureaucracy and meddling from Brussels, all the legislating and also the Eurozone and EURO.

That EURO has bought misery and poverty to a lot of people.

Unless there is a complete overhaul to accommodate countries like Greece which isn't a Germany, then it is a currency I can't support.

give me the beautiful Drachma any day.


We get the mesage. You want the UK to leave the EU because of the wrongs you perceive the EU to have done to Greece, even though it has poured vast amounts of money into that bottomless pit over the decades. Never mind looking at whether anything is wrong in the country itself that might be the cause of some of its problems when there is an easy scapegoat waiting, eh? The people of Romania were recently on the streets in huge numbers and successfully stopped the government there from watering down strict new anti-corruption measures. This for sure will give Romania a boost on the road to development and I wouldn't be surprised if it starts overtaking Greece before long. Never mind. Let's not inquire whether Greece is held back because it is mired in nepotism and corruption when there's an easy scapegoat waiting.
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Re: The Forex markets ......

Postby Robin Hood » Sun Feb 26, 2017 12:33 pm

Tim Drayton:
.............because of the wrongs you perceive the EU to have done to Greece, even though it has poured vast amounts of money into that bottomless pit over the decades.

Sorry but your perception is wrong. The IMF and the ECB have LOANED Greece money they knew they had not a hope in hell of repaying. Seems daft lending money to a country that you know cannot pay it back but there is a method in their apparent madness!

The IMF/ECB create money as debt ..... loads of debt and have treated Greece just like you would be treated if you defaulted on your mortgage ..... they seize your assets. Virtually the whole of Greece’s infrastructure from museums, to ports, to airports, to schools, to hospitals, to trains, to buses, etc. ................. are all now owned by large foreign corporations. The banks sold off Greeces assets and impoverished the country.

Most of the money Greece received from the IMF/ECB, and like 97-98%, never went into the Greek economy, it went straight to German and French banks. Who then lent them even more money! :x

There are obviously things that need to change like the people regarding income tax as an optional contribution to the State coffers but this occurs at the top of the social/wealth ladder but it is those at the bottom that are paying for it.

I feel sorry for them ..... they should have listened to Varoufakis and got out of the Euro when they had the chance. :cry:
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Re: The Forex markets ......

Postby Londonrake » Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:18 pm

miltiades wrote:You often hear " The people of Britain voted to leave the EU"
Surely the correct statement should be that a tiny minority of British people voted to leave
After all 17 million out out 65 million is not exactly THE PEOPLE.
I know this is how democracy works. But the statement is wrong that the British people voted to leave.
Take out ...geriatrics, little Englanders know what i mean mate sort of ting like, got ur country back mate ,
I hope you know what I mean :lol:
By the way, our NHS is now ....richer by 350 million bolloucks a week !! :lol: And we not dictated by understanding elected Europeans instead we are dictated to by ...unfortunately elected fucking traffic wardens :lol:


But they did vote to leave. It's an absurdity to claim that those who didn't vote wanted to stay, then count them as such. Some people can't be bothered to put a cross in a box around the corner. Such is the way in any national poll (it happens in here, too :lol:). You can't assume that all those who didn't vote regard yourself or Paphitis as the largest crap posters and count them in. That's not how it works.

The EU referendum was the largest electoral event in the history of the United Kingdom.

Nobody, the NHS or whatever, will be any the better off until Britain ceases its payments to Brussels. There is no "now" in that respect. The UK net payment into the EU is about 10% of the current NHS budget. Several billion more than they spend on running the Home Office or enough to reduce the basic rate of income tax by 3p in the £. No small beer.

After Germany, the UK is the largest net contributor to the EU budget, at about €11billion pa. That does beg the question, where are they going to get a sum like that from when/if Britain leaves? Clearly, either the likes of Germany and France are going to have to dig a lot deeper into their pockets, or the smaller countries will be receiving a lot less largess. Either way those who talk about the UK like it is an annoying irrelevance and best gotten rid of need perhaps to do a bit of reading. Britain leaving is going to be a bloody disaster for the Federation, especially at this particular juncture, when they have all sorts of problems in the pipeline.
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