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THE DEATH OF THE POUND IS IMMINENT

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Re: THE DEATH OF THE POUND IS IMMINENT

Postby miltiades » Thu Mar 30, 2017 8:57 am

Tim Drayton wrote:
miltiades wrote:
I have always supported a united Europe and will continue doing so regardless of Brexit.


Hear, hear. One of my grandfathers fought in the First World War and my father in the Second World War. They were trying to kill Germans and the Germans were trying to kill them. I lived and worked in peace and security in Germany for three years in the 1980's without facing the slightest hostility. I know which Europe I want to live in. I will be one of the first to join the campaign to get Britain back into the EU if the disastrous day on which we leave comes.

Who is to know what might happen 5 or 10 years down the road with the UK out the EU , would the UK be prospering or facing financial turmoil. Will we put the blame on Europe and if we do will the media become anti German anti European blaming any hardship on the EU, could such a scenario lead to repercussions beyond imagination. Are we safer outside the EU ? One wonders.

A united Europe guarantees all Europeans a war free state it bonds European nations and eliminates any likely hood of a war breaking out in this century. Keep an eye out on Spain and Gibraltar.
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Re: THE DEATH OF THE POUND IS IMMINENT

Postby Tim Drayton » Thu Mar 30, 2017 9:28 am

Ireland is another huge problem. With us all in the EU and there being open borders and free movement, the problem in Northern Ireland (the occupied six counties to my mind) had gone away. Some commentators say that the real reason Sinn Feinn saw to it that the Stormont government was brought down was that they could now see the potential for more strident anti-British politicies. The break-up of the UK as we know it is a real possibility. Never mind - it hasn't happened in the nine months since the vote while we still remained in the EU so, as the right-wing tabloids will tell, you 'project fear' has 'failed' and its architects are 'eating humble pie'! It will have to happen before some people learn.
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Re: THE DEATH OF THE POUND IS IMMINENT

Postby Robin Hood » Thu Mar 30, 2017 7:43 pm

Seems that the declaration of the Pounds demise is somewhat premature! :roll:

Currently trading at €1.1664 to the GBP, it has risen by 2c in the last 48 hrs ......... and of course it has nothing to do with Brexit. :wink: :D .

Oh ye of little faith! Don't look at just the pound and the prophecies of doom for the UK ...... look at the EU! That is why the pound is climbing ..... the EU is going to be hit quite hard when the divorce becomes a decree nisi. It is already crumbling as a Federal State because the UK is not the only country fed up of being run by a bunch of bureaucrats who they didn't elect. :roll: :wink:

I can see the EU breaking up as the Brexit process works through and those that decide to leave the EU regrouping as a European trading block ...... just as was the original intent of the EEC i.e. a Common Market. Nobody it appears has the same vision of a Federal States of Europe as Junker and his federalists have .......... they have their heads buried in the sand ..... and the tide is on the way in. :roll:
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Re: THE DEATH OF THE POUND IS IMMINENT

Postby Get Real! » Thu Mar 30, 2017 9:14 pm

Just croak and shut up, pound bitch! :lol:
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Re: THE DEATH OF THE POUND IS IMMINENT

Postby miltiades » Fri Mar 31, 2017 8:22 am

Robin Hood wrote:Seems that the declaration of the Pounds demise is somewhat premature! :roll:

Currently trading at €1.1664 to the GBP, it has risen by 2c in the last 48 hrs ......... and of course it has nothing to do with Brexit. :wink: :D .

Oh ye of little faith! Don't look at just the pound and the prophecies of doom for the UK ...... look at the EU! That is why the pound is climbing ..... the EU is going to be hit quite hard when the divorce becomes a decree nisi. It is already crumbling as a Federal State because the UK is not the only country fed up of being run by a bunch of bureaucrats who they didn't elect. :roll: :wink:

I can see the EU breaking up as the Brexit process works through and those that decide to leave the EU regrouping as a European trading block ...... just as was the original intent of the EEC i.e. a Common Market. Nobody it appears has the same vision of a Federal States of Europe as Junker and his federalists have .......... they have their heads buried in the sand ..... and the tide is on the way in. :roll:

You seem to be forgetting that prior to the brexit vote Stg was around 1.30 euro and 1.45 us$
Are we to be encouraged that having lost around 10% on the euro and almost 15% against the dollar we are somehow doing well ? I sincerely hope that all predictions will be proved wrong and that Sterling will make a recovery close to pre brexit vote.

Nobody living in the UK would express a wish that sterling sinks further. I want our economy and our currency to be healthy and prosperous, I do hope that the UK will not suffer economically in the foreseeable future.
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Re: THE DEATH OF THE POUND IS IMMINENT

Postby Robin Hood » Fri Mar 31, 2017 11:27 am

Milti:
You seem to be forgetting that prior to the brexit vote Stg was around 1.30 euro and 1.45 US$


In 2007 = 1.4959 and in 2008 it hit a low of 1.0227, I only bother with the £:€ as I have no income or expenditure in US$. So around 1.1655 as it is this morning, it is a lot better than 1.02 in fact ~ 0.145 better. Then it definitely had NOTHING to do with Brexit :roll: ..... the UK didn’t have such a word in it’s vocabulary. So if it wasn’t Brexit what was it that caused it to be this low? How about speculators making money! :wink:

Are we to be encouraged that having lost around 10% on the euro and almost 15% against the dollar we are somehow doing well ? I sincerely hope that all predictions will be proved wrong and that Sterling will make a recovery close to pre brexit vote.


Yes, be encouraged ...... because on the 2008 figure it has gained about 15% ! :D

Nobody living in the UK would express a wish that sterling sinks further. I want our economy and our currency to be healthy and prosperous, I do hope that the UK will not suffer economically in the foreseeable future.


If you are living in the UK it has nothing like the effect on you as it has on those of us paid pensions in £’s converted to Euro’s, .... you only have to pay more for imported goods ...... we have to pay more for EVERYTHING! Your rates, electricity, gas, fuel, taxes all remain more or less constant. But of course much of this was cheaper here than in the UK to start with. It now costs me more to live than it did before ..... that’s life. But, I see that changing over the next couple of years.

The bright side is that my assets here are worth more in the UK if the pound plummets and if I was forced to sell up and move back.

I still think you are failing to consider the frailty of the EU as it is at the moment, particularly for those countries in the Eurozone. The UK’s future is a gamble we know that and I am sure there are lot of very smart people working on it ...... but the Euro’s demise is almost a certainty ...... either that or a lot of financial experts and economists have got it all wrong. :wink:
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Re: THE DEATH OF THE POUND IS IMMINENT

Postby miltiades » Sat Apr 01, 2017 8:37 am

Sterling finished the week, following the triggering of Article 50, in a buoyant ...mood, ending the week at almost 1.18 euros , 1.177 and against the US Dollar at 1.252.
Encouraging performance, one hopes that the pound remains steady and manages to gain a little over the two main currencies. You can now buy euros at 1.15 at popular exchange bureaus , remembering of course that you will never obtain the MMR ( Mid Market Rate ).

Theresa May's letter to the President of the EU, Donald Tusk hasn't gone down well, her reference to withdrawing security cooperation unless the UK gets the trade deal it wants has been interpreted by some as rather stupid. Europe faces a security threat and it is prudent that the whole of Europe cooperates in tackling this real threat without preconditions.
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Re: THE DEATH OF THE POUND IS IMMINENT

Postby Tim Drayton » Sat Apr 01, 2017 9:43 am

Precisely. How much better for a continent of people with a shared history, culture and values to stand together in common purpose against external threats, rather than returning to the state of being divided and constantly at war with one another that once prevailed for centuries.
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Re: THE DEATH OF THE POUND IS IMMINENT

Postby miltiades » Sat Apr 01, 2017 9:58 am

Donald Tusk : “We already miss you. Thank you and goodbye,” he said during a press conference in Brussels reacting to Theresa May’s triggering of Article 50."

Tim, Im certain that you share my wishes that the UK will not suffer economically following our exit from the EU. Much has been said by " leavers" regarding regaining our ....sovereignty, I asked a neighbour brexiteer to name one or two aspects of sovereignty " recovery", he answered sternly that we can now enact our own ...laws!! I persisted telling him that there are thousands of EU laws enacted in our domestic law, which of these EU laws would you keep, I asked. He responded, Get rid of the lot !! Name just one I asked, All of them he responded !!

Much has been said about " loss of sovereignty " yet nobody can name just a single loss.!!
I think Robin might put his finger on this and tell us an answer.
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Re: THE DEATH OF THE POUND IS IMMINENT

Postby Londonrake » Sat Apr 01, 2017 10:25 am

miltiades wrote:Sterling finished the week, following the triggering of Article 50, in a buoyant ...mood, ending the week at almost 1.18 euros , 1.177 and against the US Dollar at 1.252.
Encouraging performance, one hopes that the pound remains steady and manages to gain a little over the two main currencies. You can now buy euros at 1.15 at popular exchange bureaus , remembering of course that you will never obtain the MMR ( Mid Market Rate ).

Theresa May's letter to the President of the EU, Donald Tusk hasn't gone down well, her reference to withdrawing security cooperation unless the UK gets the trade deal it wants has been interpreted by some as rather stupid. Europe faces a security threat and it is prudent that the whole of Europe cooperates in tackling this real threat without preconditions.


I'm glad you are getting a little upbeat about Sterling. Long may it either remain stable or improve. Personally I expect it to oscillate with every perceived nuance of the long negotiating period. As I believe I said some time ago, currency-wise I doubt things will pan out and level for quite a while. Or perhaps, when the clearly unsustainable Euro itself becomes a "volatile" currency.

On your second point. It strikes me that presently, everything the EU comes up with as a basis for negotiations is being perceived by the media (notable it appears to me by the good ole BBC. "B" of course standing for British) as entirely reasonable. Conversely, almost anything in the UK's initial stance is promoted as "a threat" or attempt at blackmail. :roll:

Statements like this though are fairly normal for the course in negotiations where there's a lot at stake. Both sides set out various terms - usually quite unreasonable conditions - to establish boundaries for the negotiations. I believe that analysing everything that's said in detail will just mean that people end up not being able to see the proverbial wood for the trees.

On Wednesday Britain apparently (?) did the same thing by tying security to the Brexit negotiations. Although I believe the actually point being made was that without a good deal everything could end up going pear-shaped, including security. That might have set alarm bells ringing in many EU member states, especially the 19 whose combined GDP is less than that of the UK. Life under the Soviet Union has not been forgotten in most of Eastern and Central Europe. Moreover, with America agitating for European NATO members to meet their 2% commitment, rather than freeload (as Germany in particular does), it's going to be an anxious period for some countries. If they can see beyond Junker's posturing.

Britain's military and intelligence assets represent a massive trump card (sorry about the pun) for the UK. Do EU members, particularly the former Warsaw Pact nations, really want to rely on the French and Germans? Or, face the situation where the EU has deliberately damaged Britain's economy, when there was no need. Then expect the UK to ship troops to the likes of Estonia, as right now, to show solidarity and willingness to fight for basically "a small, far away country with people we know little about"? Sorry, can't afford it.

Britain's connection with America and Canada, is another trump (oops!) card, as is the massive influence that the English legal system has over international trade matters. Then there's the small matter of the large amount of money which is remitted to the former Warsaw Pact nations by their citizens working in the UK.

A lot of leavers are perfectly content with no deal and a reversion to WTO terms. That after all is what most of the rest of the World have to do. Much of the British economy will benefit from Brexit, particularly the 80% or so of GDP that's nothing to do with the EU, once a bonfire of the Everest of Brussels originated regulations gets underway in earnest.

We've only just begun but I do fear that Tusk and Co are making the same mistake they did when Cameron went to Brussels last year, with quite modest suggestions he could present to the UK electorate as a movement towards "reform". If there's one thing that will get the Brits back up it's going to be arrogance and immutability. They can do it so much better. It needs to be borne in mind throughout that the result of these negotiations will be a double-edged sword. Try explaining to French farmers who see one of their biggest markets evaporating that it's a matter of "principle". :shock:

Let's hope that behind closed doors things settle down, rather than a continuation of the hyped up rhetoric we're being fed at the moment.
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