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failed Turkish accession-whats the worst that could happen?

Benefits and problems from the EU membership.

what is the worse that could happen

Poll ended at Wed Apr 19, 2006 5:39 am

unending defacto status quo?
3
38%
Turkish Civil War?
3
38%
Kurdish independance day in 2010?
2
25%
 
Total votes : 8

Postby BirKibrisli » Tue Mar 28, 2006 1:59 pm

Tony,
If Turkey openly gives her word you can count on them to honour it.
They would not want to "lose face",whatever the cost.
The problem is they are not making any promises at this stage.
And you are right,they will keep the Cyprus card till the end of negotiations.By then the status quo will become the pemanent solution.
Cyprus will be effectively divided between the EU and the USA.
An improved an fairer BBF type solution is the only way to avoid Partition.
I am sorry to say that my observations suggest both sides are slowly moving towards acceptance of "Partition".It will be a disaster and the end of the Cypriot nation as we want to have it. :cry:
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Postby Tony-4497 » Tue Mar 28, 2006 2:12 pm

the RoC should not be dissolved in any solution and if for any reason a deadlock emerges (i.e. intercommunal disagreements etc) there must be a clause for reverting to the current legal status quo

also, the new state of affairs to emerge under any solution (i.e. which would probably involve recognising some degree of autonomy of a TC area) should become effective only AFTER Turkey has removed the troops AND returned the land AND EU army is in place to guarantee that it stays that way.

you are free to trust Turkey to keep its "word" - the vast majority of GCs do not, and rightly so

- especially given that there is a good chance that Turkey's accession process will be blocked, in which case most parties involved will be keen to offer her Cyprus on a plate as "compensation".. in such a case Turkey would have absolutely no incentive and would be completely mad to continue to implement any provisions of a solution plan that she doesn't like.. can you not understand this very basic and fundamental concept?
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