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Is this the end of Turkey's EU accession negotiations?

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Re: Is this the end of Turkey's EU accession negotiations?

Postby Maximus » Thu Jun 06, 2013 9:12 am

B25 wrote:
Tim Drayton wrote:
Maximus wrote:This is the question. What do you think Tim. Is this the end of Turkey's EU accession negotiations?


Far from it. The people demonstrating are from the educated, secular middle classes of the large cities - precisely the constituency that most strongly favours EU accession. If these people can now make their voices heard more strongly, EU accession may be seriously back on the agenda. If a popular rebellion actually manages to oust the Islamist regime and put the Republic back firmly on a secular, pro-Western setting, then EU accession within a couple of decades will start to look probable, I would suggest. I think a lot is going to be determined in the next few days. Erdoğan returns from Africa today and a great deal will depend on how he now plays things.


You are forgetting the 50% Erdogan or the Islamist supporters.

Once these come out onto the streets, that's when we will see who will prevail. I don't see Turkey in the EU any time soon if at all.


They have just started coming out on the streets B25.

Crowd attacks supporters of Gezi Park protests
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/crowd- ... sCatID=341
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Re: Is this the end of Turkey's EU accession negotiations?

Postby Maximus » Thu Jun 06, 2013 9:39 am

supporttheunderdog wrote:It can be stopped, I am sure.

In my view the process should never have been started.....at least not until Turkey had made some substantial moves to democratise (and taken the troops out of Cyprus) on its own and outside of any EU accession process.


I agree with you. Turkey is not jumping through the EU's hoops either, even though they did start the accession negotiations.
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Re: Is this the end of Turkey's EU accession negotiations?

Postby Kikapu » Thu Jun 06, 2013 10:08 am

Tim Drayton wrote:
Maximus wrote:This is the question. What do you think Tim. Is this the end of Turkey's EU accession negotiations?


Far from it. The people demonstrating are from the educated, secular middle classes of the large cities - precisely the constituency that most strongly favours EU accession. If these people can now make their voices heard more strongly, EU accession may be seriously back on the agenda. If a popular rebellion actually manages to oust the Islamist regime and put the Republic back firmly on a secular, pro-Western setting, then EU accession within a couple of decades will start to look probable, I would suggest. I think a lot is going to be determined in the next few days. Erdoğan returns from Africa today and a great deal will depend on how he now plays things.


Tim, I would say even faster than that if Turkey were to break up. Western part of Turkey can join the EU in a very short time. It is the Eastern part of Turkey that is holding her back, as well as Islamist like Erdogan and "zero problem with neighbours", Davutoglu.
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Re: Is this the end of Turkey's EU accession negotiations?

Postby Tim Drayton » Thu Jun 06, 2013 10:39 am

Kikapu wrote:
Tim Drayton wrote:
Maximus wrote:This is the question. What do you think Tim. Is this the end of Turkey's EU accession negotiations?


Far from it. The people demonstrating are from the educated, secular middle classes of the large cities - precisely the constituency that most strongly favours EU accession. If these people can now make their voices heard more strongly, EU accession may be seriously back on the agenda. If a popular rebellion actually manages to oust the Islamist regime and put the Republic back firmly on a secular, pro-Western setting, then EU accession within a couple of decades will start to look probable, I would suggest. I think a lot is going to be determined in the next few days. Erdoğan returns from Africa today and a great deal will depend on how he now plays things.


Tim, I would say even faster than that if Turkey were to break up. Western part of Turkey can join the EU in a very short time. It is the Eastern part of Turkey that is holding her back, as well as Islamist like Erdogan and "zero problem with neighbours", Davutoglu.


Time will tell. It is hard to predict how things will move once the crowd takes to the street. I lived in the Marmara region of Turkey throughout the 90's and I remember frequently hearing the sentiment expressed, half jokingly, among ordinary people that if the west of Turkey could only split away from the rest, they could easily get into the EU very quickly and move forward. I can't help feeling that behind the new moves to solve the Kurdish problem is a plan to set up a Kurdish state under Turkish protection which will involve the ceding of a certain amount of Turkish territory. In return, Turkey will get a slice of the cake as the global energy giants start pumping the oil in north Iraq - soon to be the heart of the new Kurdish state - through pipelines leading to Turkey, already in place.

In my view, Erdoğan is more dispensable than a lot of people think. As long as he played well with the AKP's core constituency (less well educated Sunni Muslims in the conservative heart of Anatolia) he suited the ends of the project that is being played out. They will drop him like a hot brick (just in the way that Thatcher was unceremoniously dumped in the wake of the poll tax protests in the UK) if he no longer is of use. After all, he retains a degree of allegiance to his roots in the Milli Görüş strand of political Islam and in the Nakşibendi religious political order, whereas the USA's puppet master, Fetullah Gülen, comes from the conflicting Nurcu strand of political Islam, and Erdoğan has started standing up to Gülen's organisation of late, which may now count against him. Depending on how he plays his cards after he returns from Africa today, his fate will be sealed. He is still useful to the project if he can manage to restrike a chord with the people.

Just my personal interpretation of things.
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Re: Is this the end of Turkey's EU accession negotiations?

Postby Tim Drayton » Thu Jun 06, 2013 10:48 am

Maximus wrote:
B25 wrote:
Tim Drayton wrote:
Maximus wrote:This is the question. What do you think Tim. Is this the end of Turkey's EU accession negotiations?


Far from it. The people demonstrating are from the educated, secular middle classes of the large cities - precisely the constituency that most strongly favours EU accession. If these people can now make their voices heard more strongly, EU accession may be seriously back on the agenda. If a popular rebellion actually manages to oust the Islamist regime and put the Republic back firmly on a secular, pro-Western setting, then EU accession within a couple of decades will start to look probable, I would suggest. I think a lot is going to be determined in the next few days. Erdoğan returns from Africa today and a great deal will depend on how he now plays things.


You are forgetting the 50% Erdogan or the Islamist supporters.

Once these come out onto the streets, that's when we will see who will prevail. I don't see Turkey in the EU any time soon if at all.


They have just started coming out on the streets B25.

Crowd attacks supporters of Gezi Park protests
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/crowd- ... sCatID=341


Agreed. On the other hand, as one political commentator correctly noted recently, the AKP is not a party that came from the street or that understands the street. It was, in my view, part of a project cooked up in smoke-filled rooms (probably smoke free nowadays!) to further foreign interests. Curiously, most of the people who have staged small scale attacks on the protestors (and their numbers have always dwarfed that of the protestors) seem to come from the semi-fascist MHP, a party that in parliament opposes the AKP. Get your head around that!

It is undoubtedly true that the vast majority of the population of Turkey is heavily under the sway of religion and the only result that will come from the ballot box in Turkey under prevailing circumstances will be the victory of a party that roots its appeal in Islam. Another truth, however, is that revolutions are never made by the majority but by a well-organised extremely determined minority of sufficient size and strength. I would not underestimate what 10-20 million people out of 75 million can achieve through direct action if they really put their mind to it.
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Re: Is this the end of Turkey's EU accession negotiations?

Postby Kikapu » Thu Jun 06, 2013 10:55 am

Tim Drayton wrote:
Kikapu wrote:
Tim Drayton wrote:
Maximus wrote:This is the question. What do you think Tim. Is this the end of Turkey's EU accession negotiations?


Far from it. The people demonstrating are from the educated, secular middle classes of the large cities - precisely the constituency that most strongly favours EU accession. If these people can now make their voices heard more strongly, EU accession may be seriously back on the agenda. If a popular rebellion actually manages to oust the Islamist regime and put the Republic back firmly on a secular, pro-Western setting, then EU accession within a couple of decades will start to look probable, I would suggest. I think a lot is going to be determined in the next few days. Erdoğan returns from Africa today and a great deal will depend on how he now plays things.


Tim, I would say even faster than that if Turkey were to break up. Western part of Turkey can join the EU in a very short time. It is the Eastern part of Turkey that is holding her back, as well as Islamist like Erdogan and "zero problem with neighbours", Davutoglu.


Time will tell. It is hard to predict how things will move once the crowd takes to the street. I lived in the Marmara region of Turkey throughout the 90's and I remember frequently hearing the sentiment expressed, half jokingly, among ordinary people that if the west of Turkey could only split away from the rest, they could easily get into the EU very quickly and move forward. I can't help feeling that behind the new moves to solve the Kurdish problem is a plan to set up a Kurdish state under Turkish protection which will involve the ceding of a certain amount of Turkish territory. In return, Turkey will get a slice of the cake as the global energy giants start pumping the oil in north Iraq - soon to be the heart of the new Kurdish state - through pipelines leading to Turkey, already in place.

In my view, Erdoğan is more dispensable than a lot of people think. As long as he played well with the AKP's core constituency (less well educated Sunni Muslims in the conservative heart of Anatolia) he suited the ends of the project that is being played out. They will drop him like a hot brick (just in the way that Thatcher was unceremoniously dumped in the wake of the poll tax protests in the UK) if he no longer is of use. After all, he retains a degree of allegiance to his roots in the Milli Görüş strand of political Islam and in the Nakşibendi religious political order, whereas the USA's puppet master, Fetullah Gülen, comes from the conflicting Nurcu strand of political Islam, and Erdoğan has started standing up to Gülen's organisation of late, which may now count against him. Depending on how he plays his cards after he returns from Africa today, his fate will be sealed. He is still useful to the project if he can manage to restrike a chord with the people.

Just my personal interpretation of things.


I agree with your summarization of the whole thing, Tim, specially if Iraq too will be partitioned, which will make it easier for the Kurds and Turkey on the oil issue. The only problem I see, is that eventually Turkey will lose the east for independent Kurdistan and also territory to Armenia, which would mean, EU-Asia will meet somewhere east of Ankara on a line drawn from Black sea to the Mediterranean.
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Re: Is this the end of Turkey's EU accession negotiations?

Postby Tim Drayton » Thu Jun 06, 2013 11:16 am

Kikapu wrote:
Tim Drayton wrote:
Kikapu wrote:
Tim Drayton wrote:
Maximus wrote:This is the question. What do you think Tim. Is this the end of Turkey's EU accession negotiations?


Far from it. The people demonstrating are from the educated, secular middle classes of the large cities - precisely the constituency that most strongly favours EU accession. If these people can now make their voices heard more strongly, EU accession may be seriously back on the agenda. If a popular rebellion actually manages to oust the Islamist regime and put the Republic back firmly on a secular, pro-Western setting, then EU accession within a couple of decades will start to look probable, I would suggest. I think a lot is going to be determined in the next few days. Erdoğan returns from Africa today and a great deal will depend on how he now plays things.


Tim, I would say even faster than that if Turkey were to break up. Western part of Turkey can join the EU in a very short time. It is the Eastern part of Turkey that is holding her back, as well as Islamist like Erdogan and "zero problem with neighbours", Davutoglu.


Time will tell. It is hard to predict how things will move once the crowd takes to the street. I lived in the Marmara region of Turkey throughout the 90's and I remember frequently hearing the sentiment expressed, half jokingly, among ordinary people that if the west of Turkey could only split away from the rest, they could easily get into the EU very quickly and move forward. I can't help feeling that behind the new moves to solve the Kurdish problem is a plan to set up a Kurdish state under Turkish protection which will involve the ceding of a certain amount of Turkish territory. In return, Turkey will get a slice of the cake as the global energy giants start pumping the oil in north Iraq - soon to be the heart of the new Kurdish state - through pipelines leading to Turkey, already in place.

In my view, Erdoğan is more dispensable than a lot of people think. As long as he played well with the AKP's core constituency (less well educated Sunni Muslims in the conservative heart of Anatolia) he suited the ends of the project that is being played out. They will drop him like a hot brick (just in the way that Thatcher was unceremoniously dumped in the wake of the poll tax protests in the UK) if he no longer is of use. After all, he retains a degree of allegiance to his roots in the Milli Görüş strand of political Islam and in the Nakşibendi religious political order, whereas the USA's puppet master, Fetullah Gülen, comes from the conflicting Nurcu strand of political Islam, and Erdoğan has started standing up to Gülen's organisation of late, which may now count against him. Depending on how he plays his cards after he returns from Africa today, his fate will be sealed. He is still useful to the project if he can manage to restrike a chord with the people.

Just my personal interpretation of things.


I agree with your summarization of the whole thing, Tim, specially if Iraq too will be partitioned, which will make it easier for the Kurds and Turkey on the oil issue. The only problem I see, is that eventually Turkey will lose the east for independent Kurdistan and also territory to Armenia, which would mean, EU-Asia will meet somewhere east of Ankara on a line drawn from Black sea to the Mediterranean.


I don't know if you agree, but there is something weird about the way the guerillas who have been fighting tooth and nail with the Turkish army for thirty odd years seemingly at the click of a finger have now all marched in a highly orderly and disciplined fashion out of Turkey and into northern Iraq - even though the nominal leader of Iraq, Maliki, says that they are not allowed to enter the country. Some big new geopolitical scheme is certainly being cooked up and I suspect that it involves territorial loss for the Republic of Turkey in return for some far juicier carrots.
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Re: Is this the end of Turkey's EU accession negotiations?

Postby Kikapu » Thu Jun 06, 2013 11:34 am

Tim Drayton wrote:I don't know if you agree, but there is something weird about the way the guerillas who have been fighting tooth and nail with the Turkish army for thirty odd years seemingly at the click of a finger have now all marched in a highly orderly and disciplined fashion out of Turkey and into northern Iraq - even though the nominal leader of Iraq, Maliki, says that they are not allowed to enter the country. Some big new geopolitical scheme is certainly being cooked up and I suspect that it involves territorial loss for the Republic of Turkey in return for some far juicier carrots.


I do agree, Tim. BigOz however seems to think that the PKK were defeated and were retreating out of Turkey with their tails between their legs. Hardly. What ever deal that was brokered on territory loss for Turkey is to be kept quiet until Erdogan becomes president next year, although this might not happen now for him. But for Turkey to become a developed country and economy, she will need to get rid of a lot of excess baggage from the past and the PKK is one of those excess baggage. Interesting times ahead, because this will all have direct bearing on the Cyprus situation also.
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Re: Is this the end of Turkey's EU accession negotiations?

Postby Maximus » Thu Jun 06, 2013 11:37 am

Kikapu wrote:
Tim Drayton wrote:I don't know if you agree, but there is something weird about the way the guerillas who have been fighting tooth and nail with the Turkish army for thirty odd years seemingly at the click of a finger have now all marched in a highly orderly and disciplined fashion out of Turkey and into northern Iraq - even though the nominal leader of Iraq, Maliki, says that they are not allowed to enter the country. Some big new geopolitical scheme is certainly being cooked up and I suspect that it involves territorial loss for the Republic of Turkey in return for some far juicier carrots.


I do agree, Tim. BigOz however seems to think that the PKK were defeated and were retreating out of Turkey with their tails between their legs. Hardly. What ever deal that was brokered on territory loss for Turkey is to be kept quiet until Erdogan becomes president next year, although this might not happen now for him. But for Turkey to become a developed country and economy, she will need to get rid of a lot of excess baggage from the past and the PKK is one of those excess baggage. Interesting times ahead, because this will all have direct bearing on the Cyprus situation also.


The Iraqi Kurdish leader says that the Baghdad talks are the last chance otherwise they will seek a new form of relations :!:

The Kurdish people number more than 25 million and are often described as the world's largest ethnic group without their own state. "It's the goal of all the Kurdish people and it's a right," said Barzani,
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Gülen has spoken

Postby Tim Drayton » Thu Jun 06, 2013 11:44 am

The ‘Abant Platform’, known to be a mouthpiece for the Gülen organisation has issued a statement strongly condemning the AKP government’s handling of recent events, and calling for pluralism in Turkey to be respected and for there to be no interference in individuals’ lifestyles.

It includes the following:

Türkiye’nin gerçek zenginliği, farklılıklara saygıya dayanan çoğulculuğudur. Her birey kendi tercihleri ve inançlarıyla saygıya layıktır.

Turkey’s true richness is its pluralism based on respect for differences. Every individual deserves respect for their own preferences and beliefs.


That is the end of the matter, if you ask me. Turkey’s real ruler from behind the scenes is calling on the government to back off and re-engage with the sections of society that it has alienated. This is what will happen.
http://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/?hn=421082&kn=7&ka=4&kb=7
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