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Is this the end of Turkey's EU accession negotiations?

Benefits and problems from the EU membership.

Re: Is this the end of Turkey's EU accession negotiations?

Postby Tim Drayton » Thu Jun 06, 2013 11:50 am

Kikapu wrote:
I do agree, Tim. BigOz however seems to think that the PKK were defeated and were retreating out of Turkey with their tails between their legs. Hardly. What ever deal that was brokered on territory loss for Turkey is to be kept quiet until Erdogan becomes president next year, although this might not happen now for him. But for Turkey to become a developed country and economy, she will need to get rid of a lot of excess baggage from the past and the PKK is one of those excess baggage. Interesting times ahead, because this will all have direct bearing on the Cyprus situation also.


Yes, if my gut feeling is correct - and, frankly, I think that all bets are off just now until things settle back down again - then the hardest thing for the Turkish regime will be to sell this deal to their own people, who have been brought up in an atmosphere of extreme nationalism which provokes the kind of statement that one frequently hears from the man in the street in Turkey along the lines of "I will gladly shed every drop of blood in my body to stop even one inch of Turkish territory from being lost."

My sense is that having a more democratic, progressive regime at the helm in Turkey should be good for Cyprus, too, and all of Turkey's neighbours. It has got to beat resurgent Neo-Ottomism, hasn't it? Again, all bets are off and time will tell.
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Re: Is this the end of Turkey's EU accession negotiations?

Postby Kikapu » Thu Jun 06, 2013 12:37 pm

Tim Drayton wrote:
Kikapu wrote:
I do agree, Tim. BigOz however seems to think that the PKK were defeated and were retreating out of Turkey with their tails between their legs. Hardly. What ever deal that was brokered on territory loss for Turkey is to be kept quiet until Erdogan becomes president next year, although this might not happen now for him. But for Turkey to become a developed country and economy, she will need to get rid of a lot of excess baggage from the past and the PKK is one of those excess baggage. Interesting times ahead, because this will all have direct bearing on the Cyprus situation also.


Yes, if my gut feeling is correct - and, frankly, I think that all bets are off just now until things settle back down again - then the hardest thing for the Turkish regime will be to sell this deal to their own people, who have been brought up in an atmosphere of extreme nationalism which provokes the kind of statement that one frequently hears from the man in the street in Turkey along the lines of "I will gladly shed every drop of blood in my body to stop even one inch of Turkish territory from being lost."

My sense is that having a more democratic, progressive regime at the helm in Turkey should be good for Cyprus, too, and all of Turkey's neighbours. It has got to beat resurgent Neo-Ottomism, hasn't it? Again, all bets are off and time will tell.


I was in Turkey couple of weeks ago and talking to my adult nephew about Turkey's eventual breakup, he was quite upset by telling me "uncle, don't say that. We should have killed all those Kurds when we had the chance back when, he said". That's the nationalists mentality as you pointed out. But my adult niece thinks totally the opposite way. I said to my nephew "if I went to the city center and stepped on Atatürk's picture, what would happen to me?". He said "well, the government will love you for it and the people on the street will kill you for it".

I spoke with my sister living in Turkey on the phone yesterday and asked her about the on going situation in Turkey, which I have been telling her for sometime that Erdogan was pushing to abuse the people's rights too far. She said she has been trying to keep discussions cool between family members. So protests are not only in the street, but also withing individual family homes. It's a little scary to be honest with you, Tim, as to what might happen next. During the American civil war, brother was fighting brother over ideology. Could it also happen now in Turkey? Very possible.
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Re: Is this the end of Turkey's EU accession negotiations?

Postby Tim Drayton » Thu Jun 06, 2013 1:25 pm

Kikapu wrote:
Tim Drayton wrote:
Kikapu wrote:
I do agree, Tim. BigOz however seems to think that the PKK were defeated and were retreating out of Turkey with their tails between their legs. Hardly. What ever deal that was brokered on territory loss for Turkey is to be kept quiet until Erdogan becomes president next year, although this might not happen now for him. But for Turkey to become a developed country and economy, she will need to get rid of a lot of excess baggage from the past and the PKK is one of those excess baggage. Interesting times ahead, because this will all have direct bearing on the Cyprus situation also.


Yes, if my gut feeling is correct - and, frankly, I think that all bets are off just now until things settle back down again - then the hardest thing for the Turkish regime will be to sell this deal to their own people, who have been brought up in an atmosphere of extreme nationalism which provokes the kind of statement that one frequently hears from the man in the street in Turkey along the lines of "I will gladly shed every drop of blood in my body to stop even one inch of Turkish territory from being lost."

My sense is that having a more democratic, progressive regime at the helm in Turkey should be good for Cyprus, too, and all of Turkey's neighbours. It has got to beat resurgent Neo-Ottomism, hasn't it? Again, all bets are off and time will tell.


I was in Turkey couple of weeks ago and talking to my adult nephew about Turkey's eventual breakup, he was quite upset by telling me "uncle, don't say that. We should have killed all those Kurds when we had the chance back when, he said". That's the nationalists mentality as you pointed out. But my adult niece thinks totally the opposite way. I said to my nephew "if I went to the city center and stepped on Atatürk's picture, what would happen to me?". He said "well, the government will love you for it and the people on the street will kill you for it".

I spoke with my sister living in Turkey on the phone yesterday and asked her about the on going situation in Turkey, which I have been telling her for sometime that Erdogan was pushing to abuse the people's rights too far. She said she has been trying to keep discussions cool between family members. So protests are not only in the street, but also withing individual family homes. It's a little scary to be honest with you, Tim, as to what might happen next. During the American civil war, brother was fighting brother over ideology. Could it also happen now in Turkey? Very possible.


True. I would say that just now, virtually no scenario can be excluded, including civil war, although I do not rate it likely. I travelled through Yozgat in 2003 and it was scary - few women on the streets, those that were dressed in full Arab-style black veils and loose body cloaks, all the company sign-boards for branches of the various Islamic companies that have sprung up, all in green colour. I can't see much support for the protests springing up in such places.

On the other hand, there are two considerations:

The AKP is a party that has no tradition or experience of direct action in the street.
If it comes to a stage where the police are overwhelmed, I cannot see the army stepping in to rescue the Islamist regime.
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Re: Is this the end of Turkey's EU accession negotiations?

Postby Tim Drayton » Thu Jun 06, 2013 2:17 pm

Re: Getting the view of the ordinary Turkish people.

Yes, I know what you mean on that score. I have contacted various Turkish people I know who live outside Turkey and tried to get an idea what they hear from people on the ground. I wouldn't phone anybody in Turkey now with such a question, given the extent that phones there are now bugged and intercepted telephone evidence is playing such a big role in the political show trials. However, I am unable to get a clear picture from anybody. These people are all supporters of Ataturk's vision for Turkey and haters of Erdoğan, but nobody quite shares my enthusiasm that this might be the start of some big popular push that will change the direction the country is traveling in.

Turkey is certainly divided along these lines, as you say, and of the course the refusal of the Kemalist regime to take the sensitivities of the more religious sections of society has a lot to do with the reaction that lead to the Islamists coming to power, just as the lack of sensitivity displayed by the Islamists towards the supporters of secularism has lead to the present outburst.
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Re: Is this the end of Turkey's EU accession negotiations?

Postby Demonax » Thu Jun 06, 2013 2:42 pm

Kikapu wrote:During the American civil war, brother was fighting brother over ideology. Could it also happen now in Turkey? Very possible.


I think there are signs of it happening already. I posted a video here (third video down) of clashes between anti-government protesters and onlookers in Erdogan’s home town. It gives you some idea of what might happen if Erdogan decides to mobilise his supporters as he has threatened to do.
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Re: Is this the end of Turkey's EU accession negotiations?

Postby GreekIslandGirl » Thu Jun 06, 2013 3:09 pm

Kikapu wrote:During the American civil war, brother was fighting brother over ideology. Could it also happen now in Turkey? Very possible.


Excuse me if this sounds like it's my prejudices speaking, but I have never known a time when Turks opposed authority from the top in such a manner that they have ever resisted going along with what they are told - let alone turk fighting turk. I know most nations at some point or other (Greeks more than most) form factions and civil war breaks out; but as far as I know this has never happened with Turks, even during Ottoman times. Nowadays, when situations can be diffused very fast, given the will of the UN, can such a thing really happen - or more realistically, be allowed to happen to such a VAST population?

I really don't see civil war in Turkey, Kikapu, and truthfully never wish to see such chaos as only harm can come to the innocent.
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Re: Is this the end of Turkey's EU accession negotiations?

Postby Paphitis » Thu Jun 06, 2013 4:21 pm

I don't believe there will be Civil War in Turkey. It won't be allowed to happen. The Military is too strong and are the real guardians of the Turkish State. They will never allow Turkey to become an Islamic State.

At the very most, there could be a Coup, resulting in more civil unrest, possibly for several months! That's about as far as I can see things going.

The Military has a score to settle as well!
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Erdoğan is not backing down

Postby Tim Drayton » Thu Jun 06, 2013 4:51 pm

Erdoğan has announced that he is not backing down and the construction plans for Gezi Park will continue as before. He is going for an all-out fight. I really hope the protestors are up to the task.

http://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/?hn=421156&kn=8&ka=4&kb=8
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Re: Is this the end of Turkey's EU accession negotiations?

Postby Paphitis » Thu Jun 06, 2013 5:45 pm

Erdogan is a megalomaniac. It was obvious he will never cave in.

He even tried to exert his authority over Syria and Israel. Soon, it will catch up with him one way or another.

Right now, it is the people! Tomorrow, it could be a Military Coup backed by America and Israel. Who knows?

I am sure he is not sleeping well at night.
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Re: Is this the end of Turkey's EU accession negotiations?

Postby Tim Drayton » Thu Jun 06, 2013 6:13 pm

Tim Drayton wrote: I travelled through Yozgat in 2003 and it was scary [...]. I can't see much support for the protests springing up in such places.


I might have got that wrong. It seems that Yozgat Municipality came out in support of the Gezi Park protests as early as Friday 31 May.

http://www.yha.com.tr/haber_detay.asp?haberID=13

Sorry.
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