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Cyprus and the Euro

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Postby sk » Tue May 03, 2005 7:46 pm

tesco is not good in all the countries!in hungary where i live it is simply horrible. i freaked out the first time i went to tesco in budapest and dead fish were in an aquarium together with alive fish and people were buying them!!!!!the quality of the other products was not much better either.of course i have never been to tesco again.i wonder if these things happen in other counries also.
i think lidl will open a shop first in limassol and then one in nicosia at troodos avenue
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Postby michalis5354 » Tue May 03, 2005 8:18 pm

I have also heard about this company called Lidl opening stores in Cy .Is this similar to tesco Sainsburys brand? I think it is German group not sure . If it does offer a variety low priced goods many local companies will have a problem to compete with this!
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Postby cannedmoose » Tue May 03, 2005 8:32 pm

Lidl is a low-price, cheap-and-cheerful supermarket chain. It's basically the sort of place frequented by students, the elderly and lower-income folk. Quality of their own-brand products is dubious so I'm not sure how that would go down in the notoriously brand-picky, quality-picky Cyprus market.
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Postby magikthrill » Tue May 03, 2005 10:06 pm

michalis5354 wrote:I have also heard about this company called Lidl opening stores in Cy .Is this similar to tesco Sainsburys brand? I think it is German group not sure . If it does offer a variety low priced goods many local companies will have a problem to compete with this!


I did not know that Lidl was a German company? I thought it was some cheap greek chain cause when I was travelling around rural northern Greece two months ago they were EVERWHERE. im talking about towns/villages that dont have gas stations but have Lidl. LoL.
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Postby turkcyp » Tue May 03, 2005 10:29 pm

Very bad idea,

Euro will not last more than 10 years. Monetary integration without political integration is not feasible.

The only way a current like Euro would work is if EU becomes more like USA, and that is not going to happen anytime soon. Let's say there are huge inflation levels in CYprus due to excessive demand in Cyprus buy EUro citizens moving to Cyprus because Cyprus is in EU now.

Then this means central bank of Cyprus has no monetary policy tool to control inflation, and everything will be decided by Brussels, and if for some reason there is a recession in EU in general (like it always has, ;) ) then the interets rates are probably will be set too low to control inflation in Cyprus.

Anyway I just think it is a bad idea.
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Postby magikthrill » Wed May 04, 2005 2:25 am

I thought that the interest rates were set so as no country in the Eurozone has inflation.

Either way, in such a scenario the EU can throw a bunch of money to the RoC to fix up the problem. If Greece has survived with the Euro in 3 years I dont think Cyprus will have a problem.
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Postby turkcyp » Wed May 04, 2005 4:35 am

magikthrill wrote:I thought that the interest rates were set so as no country in the Eurozone has inflation.

Either way, in such a scenario the EU can throw a bunch of money to the RoC to fix up the problem. If Greece has survived with the Euro in 3 years I dont think Cyprus will have a problem.


That is not possible to set one interest rate to affect all the countries at once. Every country has its own economic cycle and it may very well be a case where one country is experiencing a recession while the others are having boom. This effect can even be seen in USA among different states. But this problem in states is usually is solved so easily because there is close to full factor mobility. Capital, labor and other inputs can go from one state to another with relative ease. That is not possible in Europe even though they are trying to achieve as USA one common market.

And it seems there will be a lot if battles in EU before that is ever achieved. Different countries in Europe has different attitudes to economic systems, and this variation is much more than in USA. For example France has got “France social model for development” whatever it is, Scandinavian countries have different systems. And countries like Italy and Spain And Germany has different attitudes about development/ So all prevent such complete integrations. This can be seen recently in France haw they have blocked the liberalization of service sector so that service industries could be free to cross borders like goods in EU. They have prevented this. Service industries is around 65% of the economic activity in EU. This means there is no economic integration among 65% of GDP in EU.

A lot of examples can be given like this and before complete integration there will always be winners and losers by the interest rate policy set in Brussels, and small countries are usually going to be at the loosing end because ECB will take big countries economies first into account before they can think of small countries.

But as I have said full economic integration and common monetary policy does not make sense if there is no political union. And EU countries are so far from each other to achieve that in the coming 15 years.

p.s. Greece has survived this because they have relied on the fiscal policy so much in the absence of monetary policy. Hence they have been given budget deficits close to %6.5. And all this means the debt of Greece is growing, and debt service is getting harder. IF they do not cut back their fiscal expenditures and tame the budget deficit there will come a time where capital markets will penalize Greece for its irresponsible behavior by charging higher interest rates to Greek bonds.
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Postby andytandreou » Wed May 04, 2005 9:39 am

"turkcyp" I understand where your coming from but interest rates are NOT the only way a nation controls resessions or expantions of it's economy, there are many more methods to do that and one of them is employment. The European union is aiming for full employment which is where Cyprus is now.

The Constitution for Europe will be the way to go in terms of an expanded Europe with a single currency but it could spell the end of Europe if a founding member like France or the UK doesn't vote for it!!!

The Euro will be a great thing for Cyprus, If you convert the current price of a can of coke (in a kiosk) into Euro it will be around 1 euro, nobody will be willing to pay that for a can of coke, there will be a massive psychological factor pushing down prices all over the country, this same psychological factor was resposible for pushing UP prices in other countries as their currency was weaker than the Euro.

As for lidl supermarkets, they are a giant chain offering a huge selection of items a great prices, they have been lured into the Cyprus market by our high standard of living and the HUGE margins that current supermarkets receive on products, they have a website in cyprus already which is looking for staff!!! >>> http://www.lidl.com.cy
As for Carrefour the French supermarket giant, they have officially declared interest in the Cyprus market by buying into (or buying completly) the Cypriot chain Chris cash and carry (which i think has a stupid name), as CCC is a listed company the rules state that Carrefour has to show its intentions by making a public anouncement: read it here>>> http://www.stockwatch.com.cy/nqcontent. ... 34&lang=gr
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Postby magikthrill » Wed May 04, 2005 10:00 am

turkcyp wrote:
p.s. Greece has survived this because they have relied on the fiscal policy so much in the absence of monetary policy. Hence they have been given budget deficits close to %6.5. And all this means the debt of Greece is growing, and debt service is getting harder. IF they do not cut back their fiscal expenditures and tame the budget deficit there will come a time where capital markets will penalize Greece for its irresponsible behavior by charging higher interest rates to Greek bonds.


Greece's debt is growing for a number of factors including the Olympic games costs and (more importantly) the government's incompetence.

Fiscal policy can also be applied to Cyprus (increase/decrease taxas and/or gov't expenditure, right? i still remember :)) if there is a potential economical hazard.


The Euro will be a great thing for Cyprus, If you convert the current price of a can of coke (in a kiosk) into Euro it will be around 1 euro, nobody will be willing to pay that for a can of coke, there will be a massive psychological factor pushing down prices all over the country, this same psychological factor was resposible for pushing UP prices in other countries as their currency was weaker than the Euro.


This is actually what I was wondering about when I started this thread. Would prices actually be less? As I said I belive Ireland was the only country to have a currency stronger than the Euro so maybe we can know from what happened there?
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Postby devil » Wed May 04, 2005 10:24 am

Anyone who thinks that prices will come down with the Euro is in cloud-cuckoo land. It simply will not happen.
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