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international isolation

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international isolation

Postby mehmet » Thu Apr 15, 2004 10:40 pm

The following is from UN Envoy in Cyprus,

'the plan... brings benefits to both sides...but on a compromise basis. Even today the people on both sides are ill prepared to understand and accept these basic facts.

Rejecting the plan... raises the question whether there can ever be a settlement

there is little hope that the leaders (Papadopoulos & Denktas) would be able to come to terms even if they had an infinite amount of time at their disposal

Expectations and illusions remain as if preserved.... only now... reality is sinking in

Massive distortion and misrepresentation of the plan is occuriong. They are being misled into thinking thatif this plan isn't accepted another will come along after it.

rejection is indefinite continuation of status quo'

The following is from Denktas,

'If Turkish Cypriots said yes, they would give up sovereignty and state'

Finally from an article in The Cyprus Weekly writing about Papadopoulos speech the folowing quote

'Turkey's goal to 'control and dominate' Cyprus had been fully met'

I could go on showing why Denktas and Papadopoulos can't both be telling the truth, if you want to be generous you will take your pick between them and say the other is paranoid or lying or something like that. Maybe they are both deluded about the plan and what they think they can achieve in the future. From the UN envoy in Cyprus it is clear in his opinion that rejection of plan will preserve division for some time longer. Turkish Cypriot opinion is more evenly divided on this issue than amongst Greek Cypriots. Rejection of plan will strengthen those in Turkish Cypriot community who agree with Denktas.

What is at stake for the Greek Cypriots is the same isolation internationally that Turkish Cypriots have been experiencing for some time. This at the very moment they are becoming part of EU. International recognition of TRNC is not necessary by EU. We will see what attitude EU has towards north Cyprus when RoC is part of EU. Of course you can live with isolation, we have done so for thirty years, Israel has done so, although unlike us it has some wealthy sponsors. Can someone tell me if there was UN/UK/USA conspiracy all this time against Greek Cypriots why they have been so successful at preventing support for Turkish Cypriots all this time? If we had so many friends in the world why did they not help us before. Why suddenly these same people who did not support us before suddenly become our best friends in Switzerland?

Like UN envoy say ''Expectation and illusion remain''.


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Postby Piratis » Thu Apr 15, 2004 10:54 pm

So you expect other countries to put embargo on us or what? The isolation they mean in our case is more of a political isolation, nothing to do with the isolation that you have because you live in an illegal state which is a product of an invasion of a foreign power to an independent state. Don't confuse things.

We will enter the EU and we will become more prosperous than ever before. Make no mistake about this.

What will happen in your case, if some partial lifting of embargo will happen or if some minor countries like Azerbaijan and Pakistan will recognize you remains to be seen. In any case the best you can expect is to be an mediocre middle eastern country (like Turkey, Syria etc).
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Postby mehmet » Thu Apr 15, 2004 10:57 pm

So you don't mind political isolation?
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Postby Piratis » Thu Apr 15, 2004 11:03 pm

Political isolation is a possibility, but not something that will happen certainly and for a long period.

Of course I mind, but between Annan plan and political isolation the choice is easy.
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Postby mehmet » Thu Apr 15, 2004 11:09 pm

Piratis,

I said it doesn't matter if you have political recognition or not. It is not the key to whether a state can exist or not. TRNC is not only unrecognised state in the world. When more Turkish Cypriots emigrate what you will have left is population even more pro- Turkey than now. You only have to look at Israel to see how physical reality can push agenda in more nationalist direction. Are you happy for north Cyprus to become part of Turkish republic. What's to stop it? International opinion? Turkey doesn't take any notice of it before why is Turkish Republic going to suddenly get worried what US etc think now? I agree with you that EU will never accept Turkey and when Turkey gets the message they will not worry to offend european opinion by maintaining their position in north Cyprus.

I was reading some earlier contributions and I notice you advocate partition as being preferable to Annan Plan. Well it looks like you might be getting your wishes.
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Postby Piratis » Thu Apr 15, 2004 11:25 pm

I didn't wish for it. Wishing and prayers are for idiots. I simply assess the current situation and the current balance of power. What we can have is either Annan plan partition or continuation of "standard" partition in one way or another.

We will fight for the best, don't expect from us to just surrender, but in any case nothing can be worst than Annan plan.

What I care about is what you care about. The well being of myself my family and my children. I have nothing against you or any other Turkish Cypriot or Turkish civilian. Unfortunately our interests clash at some point, and I have to defend my own interests.

I said several times that a good federal solution would be good for both sides. That G/C and T/C can have common interests. You didn't accept it. You told me that what I say is crap because I want everything. Ok. I will not propose anything again and we will just wait and see what happens.
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Postby mehmet » Thu Apr 15, 2004 11:39 pm

I don't remember saying your proposals were crap, they have a lot ot commend them. It's just that Papadopoulos and Denktas between them could never agree to them so we have Annan Plan instead. Turkish Cypriots move against Denktas because he is seen as being against united Cyprus. While this is going on Greek Cypriots reject Clerides and put in Papadopoulos because people think Clerides was too generous. If we had your plan to go to refereundum we could seriously discuss these. The reason we don't is because we have both been represented by these people.

You talk about surrender when Turkish Cypriots reject separation and idea of independant 100% Turkish Cypriot state.

What do you propose to do, wage war to recover what you think you deserve?
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Postby Piratis » Fri Apr 16, 2004 12:06 am

I don't know how much Denctash represents you now or in the past. This is up to you to judge.
What I can tell you is that Papadopoulos represents the majority of G/C and that if you ask him to propose a plan for the solution of Cyprus he will propose one that will favor you even more than the one I proposed.

This is why I said before that if T/C and G/C were left alone, a solution that would be ok for both sides could be found.

The problem is Turkey, that wants to control Cyprus because of some ethnic pride and some strategic reasons. (everybody wants to control Cyprus for strategic reasons). If you could see that, and demand a plan that would satisfy both sides then something could be done. But this is not going to happen because:

1) Turkey always manages to convince you that it is our fault. Now for example they used their American friends to put pressure on Annan to present a plan made to be rejected. And they convinced you that this is a fair solution for both communities and the reason we don't want it is because we are the bad guys.
But please tell me: When you see 50.000 Turkish Cypriots shouting in favor of the Annan plan, and on the other side you see just a 10% people saying "yes", most of them very reluctantly because of all these threads and pressures, doesn't that bother you?
Do you really think that people vote "no" because Papadopoulos said so? Why then T/C do not follow what Denctash says? Because we are stupid and you are smart? We all know whats good for us. If I was T/C I would vote "yes" too.

2) Turkey controls your leaders. They take them to Ankara to give them directions, if they see that the leader might not do exactly what he was instructed they put him a bomb as a warning, and I have no doubt that they will assassinate anybody that doesn't follow their directions and doesn't understand from warnings.
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Postby Piratis » Fri Apr 16, 2004 12:12 am

And I never talked about war. We can fight by other means. We (and Greece) are members of the EU, we have good relations with some quite powerful countries (e.g. Russia) if we handle things correctly and the balance of power after some years favors Turkey less than now then maybe we could achieve something acceptable.
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Postby rengarenk » Fri Apr 16, 2004 5:21 am

Piratis your posts show an attitude towards T/C that make me conclude you think they are an inferior people whom are easily brainwashed (which can only be because of a lower intellectual capacity) and act with a primative hunter-gather instinct of hording everthing for from themselves due to a natural inclination to be greedy.

The problem is Turkey, that wants to control Cyprus because of some ethnic pride


You talk about ethnic pride of turkey for wanting cyprus but fail to mention the exact same reflex for greece and we all know that cyprus would be a part of greece if not for turkeys intervention.

Turkey always manages to convince you that it is our fault


Turkey does n't need to convince T/C of anything, the historical facts speak for themselves. The 63-74 period was the G/C sides fault, the 20,000 greek soldiers which arrived in those 10 years before the coup was there with full G/C consent and was n't spontaneous, the fact that the T/C where excluded from ROC for 10 years and felt under no obligation to fight against the army in the name of the ROC was G/C fault. If the G/C had acted differently history would be completely different, it's a simple matter of causality.

Turkey controls your leaders


Turkey controls Denktas in as much as greece controlled makarios, the only difference is denktas never went against turkey except for now that it has a decent government with some some strength. It's funny because before Talat became PM and was the opposition the G/C praised him just because he was in opposition to Denktas but now he is controlled by Turkey yeah? Of course they must have threatend him in ankara and that's why he supports the annan plan even though he did before he was PM.

if T/C and G/C were left alone, a solution that would be ok for both sides could be found.


Like i've said many many times, T/C know what turkeys intrests are but we also know no other countries interests come as close to ours as turkeys. Based on history greece will always support G/C, if not turkey who will support us?

If T/C were left alone we would n't even be T/C now, we would be greek muslims on an island that was part of the hellenic republic and not due to '74 but due to no independance of cyprus in 1960, just straight annexation.

So infact just my very legal identity being a T/C is due to turkey and no one else.

What I can tell you is that Papadopoulos represents the majority of G/C and that if you ask him to propose a plan for the solution of Cyprus he will propose one that will favor you even more than the one I proposed.


Denktas put forward atleast one proposal to Papadopolous even whilst the the Annan plan was in the forground. Are you saying that your president is incapable of saying "No, look I have my own proposals that would be better than the Annan plan" and that he needs the T/C side to come and ask him to draw one up?

The fact of the matter is the G/C side always wanted an agreement under the auspices of the UN, even from '63 you internationalized the problem. The UN presents a plan that is a bi-zonal bi-communal federation that is in line with UN resolutions but then you don't accept it saying it is a confederation and then use arguments like FIR, removal of G/C voting rights and state citizenship which in the end dont hold up.

When you see 50.000 Turkish Cypriots shouting in favor of the Annan plan


G/C and your entire political leadership and were so happy that 50,000 T/C were shouting for Annan plan last year. Are you telling me that it is good for these T/C to support things when they are inline with the G/C wishes but bad when they are not? What are we suppose to do, just follow whatever the G/C are thinking?

10% people saying "yes", most of them very reluctantly because of all these threads and pressures


I would really like to see the evidence to support this assertion. It's amazing that you can even say things like this. Could it be possible that these people want to vote yes because they dont share your views on the Annan plan?

If it is anyone being threatening, it's the people who are organisating the "No" vote even before the final plan was ready. And yes, it is very organised like the "spontaneous" people shouting "No" with ready made banners right after your president made his speech.

If the whole philosophy and basis of the Annan plan is wrong, why was last year a poll commisioned by politis showing 40% yes, 38% no and 23% undecided? Could it be that the people have been influenced by the leaders and in turn the politcal leanings of the media since then?

We (and Greece) are members of the EU, we have good relations with some quite powerful countries (e.g. Russia) if we handle things correctly and the balance of power after some years favors Turkey less than now then maybe we could achieve something acceptable.


Russia is a medium power these days and only because it has lots of nuclear weapons and yes even they support the Annan plan, infact they see EU and NATO expansion as a humilation and as you know need visas for cyprus. Please name these other "quite powerful countries". Not even the Greek lobby in the US in an election year can tilt things in the G/C favour.

One thing you dont seem to realize is that when the T/C say "Yes" on 24th, Talat and Akinci have stated that will be the end of it, no more negotiations any further referendum in the future will be on Annan V and it will just be the G/C doing it. Turkey will also say the exact the same thing.

You are completely over playing your veto hand in the EU. There are only two possible ways this can go in relation to the EU, one is that the big players UK, Germany and France decide that they want turkey to join or they decide no to turkey. If they dont want turkey to join then they will let you use your veto, it will be a convienient excuse for them. If they do however want turkey to join, there is no way the major EU countries will support you trying to get concessions out of turkey for joining because turkey will say no to them and simply say "you endorsed the annan plan before that is all I will accept". Of course you can veto anyway but expect to be isolated until you change your mind, that is how the veto works in the EU.

If you're thinking that the EU will start accession negotiations to turkey with the view of them not joining in the future you'd be wrong on that count too. It will take atleast 10 years for turkey to join and pre-accession aid is worth atleast one billion euros a year (going by the aid to bulgaria). There is no way that the EU is going to give out 10 billion euros to country that will not join when it is struggling to find the money for 10 new members and with France Germany having problems with their economies.

It's all very well waiting for the balance of power to change but it's been 30 years and I cant see any new major shifts in the global position in my lifetime and this year is pretty much going to decide things in terms of leverage over turkey by the EU. The fact that after 550 years greeks are still dreaming of getting back Istanbul should give you an idea of the wisdom of "wait and see".
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