Cyprus-Forum.com

[cannedmoose]

Thus, in regards to the TC dataset, would you classify someone as a settler simply if they responded 2,3,4 or 5 to variable D4 "How long has your family been resident in Cyprus?", or is there another field(s) that you cross-tabulate this with to get a broader picture?

No, I classified someone as settler depending on what they answered to the question "where were your parents born?" If the answer was "in Turkey" I assumed that they are settlers (maybe not totally accurately, but more or less so)

The problem with using the other question as a basis, is that many of those who came to Cyprus in the late 70s were actually TCs returning from emigration.

Thanks for clarification on this Alexandros. A way around this, if I've got my SPSS stats brain on (since I have an infected tooth at the moment, I might be fuzzy on this!) would probably be to cross-tabulate the two questions "where were your parents born?" and "how long has your family been resident in Cyprus?"

I just tried this on your previous TC dataset and it does substantiate the <25% figure you spoke about, with 4 of the 702 with Turkish parents arriving pre-1974, 100 between '74 and '79, 39 between '80 and '89, 23 between '90 and '99 and just 8 after 2000. I'd be interested to see if your latest data corresponds to this.

Just out of interest as well, I noticed that 40 (almost a quarter) of the 170-strong 'settler' group in your survey are domiciled in Iskele district (just over 10% of the northern population live there), which incidentally saw the weakest result for Talat in the Presidentials in February. Would you see a correlation in this? I only ask because the Iskele results from the elections are possibly the most interesting ones of all, with Talat's percentage of the vote lower than 50% and a particularly high vote for Çevikel's YP. Since your survey's demographic sample is closely matched, I'm looking forward to doing a more thorough analysis on that.

Anyway, I should lie down after all those figures... dentist beckons tomorrow thank God!

[Alexandros Lordos]

Thanks for clarification on this Alexandros. A way around this, if I've got my SPSS stats brain on (since I have an infected tooth at the moment, I might be fuzzy on this!) would probably be to cross-tabulate the two questions "where were your parents born?" and "how long has your family been resident in Cyprus?"

Well, I guess you could do that if you need to compare immigration patterns against TC/Settler status, but if you just want to know who is a settler and who is not just ignore the "how long has you family ... " question and only use the other one about parents.

I just tried this on your previous TC dataset and it does substantiate the <25% figure you spoke about, with 4 of the 702 with Turkish parents arriving pre-1974, 100 between '74 and '79, 39 between '80 and '89, 23 between '90 and '99 and just 8 after 2000. I'd be interested to see if your latest data corresponds to this.

Oops, sorry! I didn't ask the "how long has your family been in Cyprus" question in the new survey.

Just out of interest as well, I noticed that 40 (almost a quarter) of the 170-strong 'settler' group in your survey are domiciled in Iskele district (just over 10% of the northern population live there), which incidentally saw the weakest result for Talat in the Presidentials in February. Would you see a correlation in this? I only ask because the Iskele results from the elections are possibly the most interesting ones of all, with Talat's percentage of the vote lower than 50% and a particularly high vote for Çevikel's YP. Since your survey's demographic sample is closely matched, I'm looking forward to doing a more thorough analysis on that.

Oh yes, certainly. Settlers are concentrated in the Iskele region, that's a well known fact, it is mostly in this region that empty GC villages were re-populated with settlers. As for voting patterns, the settlers most definitely vote in a different way to TCs. I ran some cross tabulations on the latest results, and the findings were as follows:


Presidential elections:

TC vote: Talat 60%, Eroglu 17%
Settler vote: Talat 42%, Eroglu 25%


Parliamentary elections:

TC vote: CTP 52%, UBP 19%
Settler vote: CTP 34%, UBP 30%


Last April's Referendum:

TC vote: Yes 71%, No 27%
Settler vote: Yes 47%, No 47%


In this sense, the GCs have a valid point when they complain that the Settlers would upset the political balance of a re-united Cyprus and strengthen the parties that are more directly influenced by Turkey.

[Murtaza]

The point is that Serdar dont supported by Turkey.
Turkey favor Talat more.

Settlers choose Serdar because their future is more vague.

By the way, I think settlers should stay in Island but should not be citizen.

[Alexandros Lordos]

Settlers choose Serdar because their future is more vague.

I am not sure what you mean. Can you clarify?

By the way, I think settlers should stay in Island but should not be citizen.

Yes, this seems to be a compromise solution that is gradually gaining support. I must emphasise though that they should not be allowed to stay on GC properties.

[boulio]

. On the issue of Security, the Greek Cypriots are unwilling to countenance an arrangement based on the 1960 Treaty of Guarantee, even with substantial alterations. In contrast, they would accept a European Security system, with “last resort” rights for Turkey to directly protect the Turkish Cypriots only if the primary security system fails. This is a position which the Turkish Cypriots also support, by a wide margin. In fact, they would clearly prefer such arrangements to the security provisions of the fifth Annan Plan

Alex can you please go into more detail because this was one of the areas that really suprised me wityh the t/c response,is there anything out there to explain a "EUROPEAN Security system"?and what about the national guard and when we say turkey will have "last resort rights"what does it mean?

thanks

[Murtaza]

Settlers choose Serdar because their future is more vague.

I am not sure what you mean. Can you clarify?

I mean this is not related to being a settler, TC or GC.
This is related to being a human.
They cannot see their future. They know GC dont want them much.
So they prefer status quo.(Like most human being)

That is the reason why they choose Serdar.

Yes, this seems to be a compromise solution that is gradually gaining support. I must emphasise though that they should not be allowed to stay on GC properties.

GC properties should give back.
I dont think anyone will argue about this.

[magikthrill]

Alexandre,

I know you are uber busy but do you think you can create a small proposal that, accroding to your results (past and present), you believe both communities would accept and then put a poll.

i think it would be interesting

[boulio]

is there any talk of territorial adjustments and who would both communities see this(karpasia) for example.

[Alexandros Lordos]

is there any talk of territorial adjustments and who would both communities see this(karpasia) for example.

In the survey, there were only two questions which directly referred to territory. The first was where respondents were asked if they would accept a Federal zone to cover areas of environmental and archeological significance, and the second was a question on whether further territorial concessions might be made by the TCs in return for "pure bizonality" (i.e. GCs to not be given back their property in the TC constituent state).

Concerning the first question, it would seem that a federal zone (which wouldn't include any major population centres) would be acceptable to all. I guess in such a zone the tip of Karpasia could be included, as well as the tip of Akamas, mount Olympus, Salamis archeological site, the Hala Sultan Teke, and Nicosia-within-the-walls. Any people who happen to live in these Federal areas would exercise their voting rights in one or the other constituent state, but the local administrators - police etc. - would be strictly Federal.

I suppose in such a Federal zone one could add the ports and airports of entry into Cyprus - since border control will be the responsibility of the Federal Government - and also the region where the Federal Government will be housed - during the Annan Plan discussions they were talking about Nicosia International Airport area as the seat of the Federal Government. So all this could be part of a Federal zone.

Now concerning the second idea - further territorial concessions in return for pure bizonality - this is a dead horse with GC public opinion (though the TCs would most certainly go for it). We should be emphasising that people can live all over Cyprus, not just in their "own" constituent state. If we go down the path of further territorial adjustments it will be like recognizing that what we are talking about is disguised partition, something which the GC public totally abhors.

Beyond the survey I am not sure exactly what is happening, I know that Anastasiades suggested to Talat that karpasia should be returned to GCs and in return the TCs can have Kokkina, but I don't think Turkey would accept any proposal which included the return of Karpasia (for strategic reasons).

One of Papadopoulos' advisors, Claire Palley, has been putting forward the notion of a Federal Zone, but on a massive scale, in effect turning Cyprus into a trizonal state. I think this is too ambitious to ever happen, and probably too expensive/bureaucratic as well.

[Alexandros Lordos]

Alexandre,

I know you are uber busy but do you think you can create a small proposal that, accroding to your results (past and present), you believe both communities would accept and then put a poll.

i think it would be interesting

Yeah, good idea, I'll do it at some point, but don't expect any miracle-results. From my estimates, even the best BBF plan can only get about 55%-60% support amongst GCs, so don't expect an uncontested string of "Yes" votes.