Cyprus-Forum.com

[Nikitas]

Just returned from Cyprus . I spent a week touring the island.

I am a little confused by what I saw. The population in the south is said to be 800 000 people. It seems that these people are crowding in a tight space, considering the urban sprawl evident almost everywhere in the south. Almost all major population centers seem to have multiplied their square mileage.

In the north the population is supposed to be 200 000 TCs and up to 500 000 colonists, by some accounts. Where do all these people fit? Looking over the Green Line the north seems empty. Considering it is half the area of the south, the density should be double, it is obviously not anywhere as densely populated as the south. So where do the 700 000 live?

[Viewpoint]

Just returned from Cyprus . I spent a week touring the island.

I am a little confused by what I saw. The population in the south is said to be 800 000 people. It seems that these people are crowding in a tight space, considering the urban sprawl evident almost everywhere in the south. Almost all major population centers seem to have multiplied their square mileage.

In the north the population is supposed to be 200 000 TCs and up to 500 000 colonists, by some accounts. Where do all these people fit? Looking over the Green Line the north seems empty. Considering it is half the area of the south, the density should be double, it is obviously not anywhere as densely populated as the south. So where do the 700 000 live?

You have a massive mountainous area which is not preferred for inhabitance. As for the TRNC our popluation is 300.000 add to this influx of 100,000 students, 200.000 workers, very rare you get TC gardeners waiters builders.

[Nikitas]

There is no way that 600 000 people fit in the urban areas I scanned with my binocs.

Looking at my ancestral village, half the houses have been bulldozed by the TCs that moved there from Polis to prevent settlers moving in. That brings the capacity of the village to half its former size, it used to house 1800 people pre 1974. The same has happened in other villages according to my personal and reliable sources (including TC friends).

North Nicosia is tiny compared to the south side, presumably it is also the major urban center. Something strange is going on.

[repulsewarrior]

...i read (PIO) that there are 90,000 eligible Turkish voters, living in the illegally occupied north. as the article expands upon, very scary if one takes into account their children and family, in approximating population size. my guess is the population is split 50-50; statistically we have seen recently similar results (as intentions go), within a population of less than 400,000.

[Nikitas]

RW,

I am aware of the various reports of TC to settler ratios, the census etc. What does not make sense is the total built area available in the north compared to the south. Even a cursory look at Google maps will show that there is simply not enough accomodation to house the reputed 500 000 to One million people.

GC friends and relatives who have traveled north of the Green Line report empty or half empty villages. So where are these hundreds of thousands of people living? Or maybe there aren't that many and the numbers speculation has another purpose.

Note that all sides are using these numbers, each for their own purpose, and whan I say all I include GCs and mainland Greeks.

[Tim Drayton]

Sorry, but I get the feeling that wishful thinking beats within the heart of every Greek Cypriot, to the extent of shutting our objective reality. Earlier this year I had to go to an address in the northern end of the municipality (once just a village) of Gönyeli (in Greek: Κιόνελι), now effectively part of the northern Nicosia urban sprawl. I was astonished to see the Pentadaktylos range seemingly rising up just beyond the doorstep of the house I called on. The urban sprawl of northern Nicosia has spread half way up the main road to Kyrenia.

Are you really telling me that all of the urban areas shown on this map were there in 1974? I don't think so.

https://www.google.com/maps/@35.2186173,33.2942832,13z

[Nikitas]

Tim,

I did not make myself clear. Urban sprawl is the the name of the game in the south. Let me name a few places that were small villages or hamlets in my time- Germasoya, Nissou, Tseri, Paralimni (that one was the biggest shocker for me), Derynia. In Nicosia itself Anthoupoli was unknown in 1980, as were most of the south and southwestern new suburbs and Larnaca stretching for miles from the outskirts to the port was a big surprise.

It is obvious that the south is bursting with its population of 800 000 people. The north is about half the area, which would give it twice the population density of the south if the reports we read are reliable. And that kind of density is not evident from the urban development I saw.

This link to a night image illustrates comparative urban sprawls and is what I had in mind:

http://geology.com/articles/night-satel ... ght-lg.jpg

The images of the main urban areas and the Urban Heat Island effect in this book are also intriguing. I never thought I would see the day when Paralimni would be bigger than Morphou, yet here it is:

http://www.intechopen.com/books/remote- ... -in-cyprus

[GreekIslandGirl]

We've also heard reports that the illegal Turkish invaders are returning to their anatolian roosts ...

[repulsewarrior]

...indeed, it would seem that the economy in Turkey would be attractive to someone from there, with nothing to lose, given that the job situation in Cyprus may be worse.

...yet speaking of population growth in general, it is not so ridiculous, my hypothesis, that Cyprus should be prepared to support a population of 12.5 million, perhaps not in fifty years, but in a hundred, and at worst in 200 years...

[Nikitas]

RW you are touching on subject that I too have been trying to tackle for some time: population.

The overriding assumption these days is that humanity is ever increasing. Yet there are pointers that major regions are stabilising and others are facing decreases in population. Europe and Japan are decreasing, North America and Turkey are stable, and as the standard of living rises in other areas the trend is for two children or less per family which translates into stable or decreasing populations.

The effect on economies built on the model of expanding populations will be interesting.

To turn to the original issue in the thread. If the north has the number of people we are told it has, which translates into double the population density on the ground of the south, where are these people? Why are the night maps not showing the lights? Why are the Google maps not showing similar conurbations as you see in the south? Where are the people?

It may be as you say, that people are returning to Turkey in search of better opportunities. Anyone who has visited the Aegean coastline of Turkey can appreciate the vastly superior tourist infrastructure there and the possibilities open to a small enterpreneur compared to Cyprus, and here I am comparing the whole of the island, not just the north, with Turkey.

As for incentives given to small industrial startups Turkey has aggressive policies in place with favorable deals on everything, from factory space to export subsidies and tax breaks. By comparison Cyprus is an industrial backwater.