Cyprus-Forum.com

[umit07]

Oh man, is it polling season again? Milti's polls remind me of not very well thought out hypothesis tests. HO, H1, the statements are too broad.

[Paphitis]

It's curious that Sputnik is reporting positively on the campaign to liberate Raqqa, given that this is a Western backed move. I get more and more convinced that there has been some kind of backroom deal between the West and Putin over Syria.

http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160 ... ation.html

So does this mean they will stop bombing the SDF? Or will they wait until they liberate Raqqa and then start bombing them again in Raqqa just like they are doing in Aleppo.

I hope you're right, and if you are, it means the SDF are on the cusp of a political solution acceptable to them.

Going by the following, which appeared yesterday in another Putin propaganda vehicle, the Russians appear willing to cooperate on Raqqa. Aleppo may be a different story.

A large-scale offensive to liberate an Islamic State stronghold in the Syrian city of Raqqa would go more smoothly and effectively if Washington and Moscow coordinated air support and anti-terror forces on the ground, believes Russian FM Sergey Lavrov.

“[The Liberation of] Raqqa is undoubtedly one of the goals of the anti-terror coalition, as well as the Iraqi city of Mosul,” Lavrov said on Tuesday, noting that the two cities could have been recaptured sooner and more effectively if Russian and American military forces started coordinating their moves.

“Right now there is a chance that such coordination will take place,” Lavrov said, adding that he can “responsibly confirm” that Moscow is ready for such coordination.

“We believe that the Russian air-space forces and those of the US-led coalition should work in a synchronized and coordinated manner and help those on the ground actually confronting terrorist squads,” Lavrov stressed, referring to both the Kurdish militias and the armed forces of the Syrian Arab Republic.
...

https://www.rt.com/news/344260-isis-raq ... d-efforts/

This is what I think. It is Russian Propaganda!

The Coalition has been bombing the outskirts of Raqqa for a few months. The city is surrounded by SDF Militias which are supported by coalition aircraft. These are the very same militias being bombed by the Russians in Aleppo.

Russia, I fear would bomb the SDF if the coalition wasn't present.

If the Russians want to cooperate in the Coalition's campaign around Raqqa, they are free to do so. However, the Russians will have to operate through the Coalition's JSOC and only hit targets through clear rules of engagement and in accordance to the Coalition's procedures. What can't happen is dropping bombs in civilian areas.

The Opus Operandi of the Coalition Vs Russians are not the same. The Coalition has the upper hand around Mosul, Fallujah, and Raqqa. But the ground campaign is slow because of the logistics and planning and allowing civilians to either escape or not fall victims to our bombs.

They are taking the piss unfortunately. You can't ask to be part of the liberation of Raqqa and then when that job is done by the SDF, start bombing them.

I think the SDF and Coalition are all alone. But the good news is that the SDF will take over Raqqa in due course strengthening their position.

But if there is some kind of deal whereby they are actually sincere, then I would welcome that. But that also means there is a de facto power sharing agreement. The SDF want transition so therefore back to square 1!

[Robin Hood]

It's curious that Sputnik is reporting positively on the campaign to liberate Raqqa, given that this is a Western backed move. I get more and more convinced that there has been some kind of backroom deal between the West and Putin over Syria.

http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160 ... ation.html

So does this mean they will stop bombing the SDF? Or will they wait until they liberate Raqqa and then start bombing them again in Raqqa just like they are doing in Aleppo.

I hope you're right, and if you are, it means the SDF are on the cusp of a political solution acceptable to them.

Going by the following, which appeared yesterday in another Putin propaganda vehicle, the Russians appear willing to cooperate on Raqqa. Aleppo may be a different story.

A large-scale offensive to liberate an Islamic State stronghold in the Syrian city of Raqqa would go more smoothly and effectively if Washington and Moscow coordinated air support and anti-terror forces on the ground, believes Russian FM Sergey Lavrov.

“[The Liberation of] Raqqa is undoubtedly one of the goals of the anti-terror coalition, as well as the Iraqi city of Mosul,” Lavrov said on Tuesday, noting that the two cities could have been recaptured sooner and more effectively if Russian and American military forces started coordinating their moves.

“Right now there is a chance that such coordination will take place,” Lavrov said, adding that he can “responsibly confirm” that Moscow is ready for such coordination.

“We believe that the Russian air-space forces and those of the US-led coalition should work in a synchronized and coordinated manner and help those on the ground actually confronting terrorist squads,” Lavrov stressed, referring to both the Kurdish militias and the armed forces of the Syrian Arab Republic.
...

https://www.rt.com/news/344260-isis-raq ... d-efforts/

But surely the Russians (Putin/Lavrov) have been offering for months or even longer to cooperate with UN/NATO air forces? It is the US/NATO that won't entertain the idea. The Syrians or the Russians would have every right to destroy aircraft entering Syrian air space ..... but they haven't. No doubt Paphitis will see this as Assad/Putin being scared of the mighty US coalition ..... I see it more as common sense? No point in making matters worse.

The forces attacking Raqqa are still some 8km away from the outskirts, so the fall of Raqqa is far from a fore gone conclusion. I can't see how they will achieve it without massive civilian casualties and is the reason IMO that the recapture of Aleppo is going so slowly. It would be simple to wipe the terrorist out in a couple of days but it is trying to avoid the resulting civilian casualties that makes it slow going. I have not yet seen the SOHR reporting on civilian casualties from Raqqa ...... maybe there are none so far?

[Paphitis]

They can if they agree to operate through our JSOC. All operations ho through one central command and since the Coalition already has the upper hand around Raqqa, they won't entertain anything unilateral from Russia.

The Coalition would have concerns for civilian casualties which they are making every effort to avoid as well as the security of our allied SDF on the ground. We actually avoid bombing downtown Raqqa for the time being because of the civilian human shields whilst the Russians actually hit hospitals and the Syrians drop barrel bombs in Aleppo.

So of course the Russians are not welcome unless they do what they are told under Coalition command because it is our troops on the ground and it is these forces which the Russians have been killing elsewhere.

The ball is in Putin's court but the coalition is not stupid! It is really up to them. Coalition would be happy for the Russian's join the effort but let's be clear here. They would be assisting the SDF taking over Raqqa!

The Coalition would also no doubt be seeking a complete cessation of the bombings against the SDF in Aleppo and that all areas are open to UN aid. The fact that the Russians will not do that suggests that they are insincere.

If the Russians agree to all of that and a political solution, then the we will welcome all forms of cooperation to destroy DAESH and Al Nusra. If not, then they can go and to hell! Their choice.

[Robin Hood]

Paphitis:

They can if they agree to operate through our JSOC. All operations go through one central command and since the Coalition already has the upper hand around Raqqa, they won't entertain anything unilateral from Russia.

What you consistently tend to ignore is the fact that the coalition has no authority to demand anything related to the State of Syria .... land, sea or air. The coalitions actions in Syria are illegal in International law. The Russians and SAA ignore these breaches because the result is in the common good. It is this rather arrogant attitude of the coalition that they have a God given right to do what they want even if it breached international law, that is why there can be no cooperation. It is the coalition that has to concede that Syria/Russia alone have that right under Law and should be willing to cooperate with them with a joint command.

The Coalition would have concerns for civilian casualties which they are making every effort to avoid as well as the security of our allied SDF on the ground. We actually avoid bombing downtown Raqqa for the time being because of the civilian human shields whilst the Russians actually hit hospitals and the Syrians drop barrel bombs in Aleppo.

I don’t think that is true at all! Both sides have concern for the loss of civilian lives and try to avoid hitting civilians. This idea that the Russians/Syrians deliberately target civilian is just propaganda. The Russians did bomb a hospital and again about 20 minutes later ..... they admitted it ..... but you again overlooked the circumstances under which it happene! I am sure you are aware MSF did not follow protocol and inform them of the coordinates as is the norm because they were told (By who?) if they did this the Russians would bomb them (Amnesty Intl, conformed that)...... the advice given was based on the sort of propaganda you keep applying.

The coalition supported troops have yet to get into Raqqa .... the SDF is still some kilometres from even the suburbs ..... we will see, when they start hitting real resistance from the occupiers inside built up areas, if they can still claim to avoid civilian casualties.

So of course the Russians are not welcome unless they do what they are told under Coalition command because it is our troops on the ground and it is these forces which the Russians have been killing elsewhere.

Reality seems to differ from your conception. Every time an area is cleared of terrorists by the SAA, the population welcome the Syrian Army and praise the Russians help in releasing them from occupation. The stories abound of the treatment they receive from the ‘moderateswho are hated by the relieved citizens, and in many cases are plain and simple war crimes. But you ignore this completely.

The ball is in Putin's court but the coalition is not stupid! It is really up to them. Coalition would be happy for the Russian's join the effort but let's be clear here. They would be assisting the SDF taking over Raqqa!

I see it as the ball being in the coalition’s court, to cooperate with Russia and Syria as a joint effort with a common command structure and common purpose. That does not mean that command structure is dominated by the demands of the US/NATO coalition.

The Coalition would also no doubt be seeking a complete cessation of the bombings against the SDF in Aleppo and that all areas are open to UN aid. The fact that the Russians will not do that suggests that they are insincere.

The SDF only came into being in December 2015. (I don’t think SDF plays much of a part in vents in Aleppo ?) In Aleppo the terrorists are the ones continually breaking the cease fire and causing civilian casualties ..... I have watched the videos of the gas bombs from the rebels falling in civilian areas and hitting hospitals in the process. You refuse to accept that the Russians have been dropping aid and that it is often stolen by the terrorist. But it is a fact! Russia has all along said it will attack and bomb terrorists ......... I agree with Lavrov’s description of a terrorist, you believe there are good and bad terrorist ..... I think that is an impossibility.

If the Russians agree to all of that and a political solution, then the we will welcome all forms of cooperation to destroy DAESH and Al Nusra. If not, then they can go and to hell! Their choice.

As I say ..... I believe it is the coalition that have to cooperate with Syria/Russia as they have the legal authority in Syria, not the coalition. If the coalitions actions are contrary to International Law, which they are according to the UN, then they have no authority.

[Tim Drayton]

There's a lot of talk just now about the new draft Syrian constitution that the Russians are supposedly working on, and the word is that they are actually cooperating with the Americans on it. There is also talk of Raqqa becoming part of a new Kurdish entity (perhaps destined to be an American puppet), a prospect which the people of Raqqa - if the Raqqa is being Slaughtered Silently web site is to be believed - do not in any way welcome. Just talk. But, all little pointers as to the existence of a deal behind the scenes.

[Paphitis]

There's a lot of talk just now about the new draft Syrian constitution that the Russians are supposedly working on, and the word is that they are actually cooperating with the Americans on it. There is also talk of Raqqa becoming part of a new Kurdish entity (perhaps destined to be an American puppet), a prospect which the people of Raqqa - if the Raqqa is being Slaughtered Silently web site is to be believed - do not in any way welcome. Just talk. But, all little pointers as to the existence of a deal behind the scenes.

Are you suggesting Partition, Transition or both?

We will see soon enough but I don't have high hopes.

In any case, the Coalition will not cooperate with Russia unless they allow aid through to besieged areas, and the Bombing of Aleppo ceases. The Coalition will not cooperate with Assad under any circumstances whatsoever. We do not recognize the legitimacy of the Syrian Government until a political solution is achieved and transition occurs.

If there is a back room deal, then we shall see what transpires hopefully very soon. But unfortunately, in a war as brutal as this one, the biggest casualty is the truth and there are big Superpowers at play. Russia and the Coalition will not be humiliated, so I guess it is possible that a deal has occurred so both can walk away without being losers. The Coalition wants Assad, Russia wants Syria as its client. Why not give us Assad, and Russia can keep Syria? Then everyone is happy and we can all just concentrate efforts against ISIL and Al Nusra.

[Tim Drayton]

I am happy to confess to being puzzled as to what is really going on. If the Russians really are happy for American backed forces to liberate Raqqa (if that's actually what it is happening - some sources say it is just an operation to take the countryside north of Raqqa from Daesh) that would suggest that some kind of partition is on the cards. I don't know if this is so.

[Paphitis]

Coalition aircraft have been bombing the outskirts of Raqqa today. There is no information reported that anything other than the low density outer areas being bombed.

Meanwhile, the SDF is only a few kms away.

Also, there are reports that Coalition backed Forces have captured 2 villages just to the North of Raqqa.



http://www.albawaba.com/news/coalition- ... qqa-844678

Tim, it appears that the areas to the north of Raqqa are taking priority. Kurdish State?

[Paphitis]

There are also reports that Coalition Aircraft have been dropping leaflets into Raqqa and Fallujah, urging residents to flea the area.

It appears that the ground offensive against Raqqa will start soon.

There are also sad reports that 15 Sunnis were burned alive by ISIL when they tried to flea Fallujah.