Tim Drayton wrote:Paphitis wrote:Tim Drayton wrote:Raoul Ruparel says with reference to in-depth research conducted by his thinktank, Open Europe:
“What we found is that, in the long run (up to 2030), there will be a permanent cost to leaving the customs union. This cost is around 1% to 1.2% GDP.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... on-uk-25bnNever mind, that’s obviously just more moaning by the remainers! But it’s not. Raoul Ruparel has been hired by David Davis, Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, to provide expertise on the process of leaving the EU.
And how did they come up with that?
Where are their calculations? There are none because they don't have a clue. Their calculations are based on assumptions. Did they assume there would be no FTA with the EU, and if so, also no FTA with America and other countries? What are their variables and assumptions?
But let's say it is true. 1% to 1.2% is not much especially if its over a 24 year period.
This is just agenda driven anti BREXIT scare mongering journalism. The journo got up and decided or was instructed to find any so called analysis material that paints the BREXIT in bad light. so they came across this "think tank" which could also be agenda driven by a foreign Government like the USA for instance.
Bottom line is this. We won't know for sure until after BREXIT. I do have a gut feeling though, that Britain will have the best of both worlds. they will have the FTA other EU members have without the extra baggage or compliance with all the EU nonsense.
The overwhelming consensus view among economists is that leaving the EU will be disastrous for the UK. You can call it moaning, or project fear, or what you wish but it is all a smoke screen for the intellectual bankruptcy of the leave camp that cannot produce any coherent arguments as to the supposed benefits of leaving - because they don't exist. OK, in your case it is just one in the eye for the EU and you are glad because you see it as being retribution for the hard deal the EU imposed on Greece, and you are also eying up the possibility of moving in and making a killing when things hit rock bottom and profiting from the self-inflicted (albeit by a narrow majority) misery of the British people. You don't care about the fate of the UK - and why should you? In fact, this is the opinion of the man that David Davis, Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, has just appointed as an advisor.
The consensus view is it? i bet I can find you many economists who would disagree with this.
But, finding economists that think it will be disastrous is easy because they are only looking after their own self interests. like Obama was when he literally bullshitted and fed the British people some additional scaremongering to fend off BREXIT.
But since the vote, we hear the USA has done a backflip and clearly state they would sign a FTA with Britain - presuming Clinton wins of course and not Trump.
I also see it is beneficial for Britain. honestly, if I had the misfortune of raising my family in London and a Briton with a family, I would vote for BREXIT because the attitude of Juncker and the rest of the EU clowns is something I don't like. I don't like big interfering Government either, making a rule and regulation for everything turning us all into a super Nanny State like we are all fuckwits.
But one of the biggest kickers for Britain is this. It is a good country, with one of the best social welfare systems on the planet, great education facilities, NHS and very high living standards. The brits now want to control their borders and they can virtually go into lock down Australia style. They can even have detention Centres to house all illegal immigrants before deportation. Who is going to tell them naughty brits off? The EU or the UN?
fact of the matter is this. If the Brits want to maintain their high living standards, then I'm afraid they are not going to be able to do it in the EU.
