Cyprus-Forum.com

[Maximus]

Potentially, that is a recipe for disaster.

It will only take one trade that doesn’t come back to wipe out the profits you would have accumulated. It will happen, that one trade. It is a statistical certainty.

You can be right 90% of the time but if you are making $1 when you are right and losing $15+ on that one time out of ten, it’s no good.

so you don’t necessarily have to be right most of the time. Your average win just has to exceed your average loss by a sufficient multiple.

[erolz66]

Potentially, that is a recipe for disaster.

It will only take one trade that doesn’t come back to wipe out the profits you would have accumulated. It will happen, that one trade. It is a statistical certainty.

You can be right 90% of the time but if you are making $1 when you are right and losing $15+ on that one time out of ten, it’s no good.

so you don’t necessarily have to be right most of the time. Your average win just has to exceed your average loss by a sufficient multiple.

I do understand what you are saying and you may well be right but for me that is one of the ways 'cryptos' are different from 'normal stocks' for me. With a normal stock that say loses 80 or 90% of it's value in a short space of time, it seems to me that the chances it will ever 'recover' are pretty low. Yet with bitcoin, the pattern to date of such wild drops followed by wild recoveries seems more the 'norm' than the exception.

To give another example, my mother aware that I was dabbling in 'cryptos' mentioned she had thought about buying some bitcoin but it was all to mystifying and complicated. At the time Bitcoin was trading and had been trading in a very narrow band of around £5000, for a period of time that going on history was 'atypical'. My best guess at the time was that it had found a 'bottom' but I had no certainty that this was the case. I was certain that sooner or later it would break out of this narrow range and dramatically so, either up or down. So I did 'advise' my mother that whilst I had no crystal ball I though it was not a bad time to buy some bitcoin (only with money she was prepared to lose entirely) and so we bought £1000 worth of bitcoin (0.2 btc). Within a week this £1000 was worth about £700 and within a month it was worth less than £500. If we had of had a 'stop loss' then it would have been place higher than this low and would have been trigger and her net position would have been negative. We just used my 'patience' and 'hope' approach. Bout a month ago, I sold half of her 0.2 bitcoin for £1000. She now holds 0.1 bitcoin that cost her nothing and is currently worth around £932.40 Of course one swift does not a summer make and I accept that this may all just be an atypical example but it is an example where had I used 'stop loss' rather than 'patience and hope' my mother would have had a loss instead of the position she is in now whereby she has a £900+ profit and can not ever 'lose' even if that drops to zero as she has back the original £1000 she invested.

Like I say I am no 'expert'.

[erolz66]

And finally for tonight.

Firstly thank you maximus for input. As I say this not an area I have any expertise in and I very much appreciate your input.

Another way 'cryptos' seem different to me than 'stocks'. That first chart I posted of Bitcoin Cash / Bitcoin pair trade, the last two buys, the Bitcoin Cash / Bitcoin pair pair has not to date ever risen above the point I bought at (though I would not say with enough patience it never will). I have now sold those Bitcoin cash buys but not for bitcoin. I have sold them for fiat (euros) and by my calculation done so at a euro return that is greater the euro cost for them was , if I take the euro value of the bitcoin I bought them with at the time I bought them. So to me this 'in my head' at least is not a loss. If there is an 'equivalent' to doing that with stocks then it is not something I am aware of or understand ? I also accept that I may just 'fooling myself' and certainly even thopugh in my head I am not behind in euro terms I do realise that had I not bought them with bitcoin at all and sold that bitcoin to fiat at the time I sold the bitcoin cash to fiat , I would have made more profit. But it feels to me at least that I have not lost on those last trades even though that pair has to date never recover over the price I bought at.

Does any of that make any sense ?

[Maximus]

Welcome,

In that example though, I understand the situation slightly differently.

You invested $1000 on your mother’s behalf and she was prepared to lose all of it. The stop loss was in effect btc going to the price of zero.

Let’s say it continued going the other way, and the price never recovered to the original buy price. or even it hovered around the less than $500 worth mark and you maintain your hope and patience strategy.

You would still be experiencing a paper/unrealized loss for the whole time. How long can you keep that up If you never realize the loss?

You can hold indefinitely, for life or if btc reaches $0. These are both as good as a total loss if you never sell to withdraw the funds.

Like I say, it will only take one trade and if you trade often enough, the more likely you will come across it.

[miltiades]

It is so much easier trading now than in the early 80s when I first started. Back then you had to rely on the FT and prices were a day behind. If you wanted to obtain uptodate prices you had to ring your broker .Now you get up to the minute prices and information on a stock's movement, announcements etc.
It is however a mentally tiring exercise keep in uptodate. I only concentrate on a maximum of 4 stocks, mostly just 3 right now just 2. Historical prices are if course important in making an investment decision. Kiadis for instance reached its lowest price for 12 months after its share issue. 5..56 € was the lowest. I jumped in? Bearing in mind that in September 2018 it traded at over €15.
Setting a " Sell" point is of a fundamental importance. Tomtom has been good to me, so has Galapagos now trading at 121€. I first tipped it at 93.74 way back in November 2018. I bought at 89.70 and sold at 109.90. I'm still watching this stock as it appears to be undervalued.
Nobody can correctly predict at all times. Base your investments on your own research and do take into account financial experts opinions.
XRP, I first bought at 0.44$ , then bought again at around 0.31. It's likely to rise in the not too distant future, this one I just ....wait.
Will sell only when I double my money at around 0.75$.
It was a good move selling Tomtom at 10.16€ since the following day it dropped considerably, now trading at around 9.85€.
Good luck guys , remember invest ONLY what you can afford to lose.

[erolz66]

Being successful in the financial markets is about being in the minority or contrarian opinion. You don’t want to follow the heard with the popular opinion.

Is a 'bet' on bitcoin having real value ongoing and in to the future not in itself a minority contrarian opinion ? When you have the likes of Joseph Stiglitz , Paul Krugman, Jamie Dimon and Warren Buffett and a general majority of the experts in and from the 'trading industry' all talking about bitcoin being 'worthless ?'

[Maximus]

Being successful in the financial markets is about being in the minority or contrarian opinion. You don’t want to follow the heard with the popular opinion.

Is a 'bet' on bitcoin having real value ongoing and in to the future not in itself a minority contrarian opinion ? When you have the likes of Joseph Stiglitz , Paul Krugman, Jamie Dimon and Warren Buffett and a general majority of the experts in and from the 'trading industry' all talking about bitcoin being 'worthless ?'

I suppose it could be yes but is it really a minority opinion? I don’t know.

it’s all relative and nothing works 100%, 100% of the time.

Because you are only dealing with probabilities and inherently, there are no certainties.

Trading and investing is full of contradictions and there are as many ways to trade as there are traders.

This is why it is possible to make money. The difference of opinion between buyers and sellers creates price volatility.

However, it is a statistical certainty that there will be one trade that does not come back. Even warren buffet, who has accumulated billions has had losing investments. He accepts his loss when he is wrong.

Trading crypto is like any other business, and good business practice involves minimizing waste/ losses and maximizing profits.

Think of it like you have a retail store, and you buy lots of units of a particular product. Some you sell at rrp, but then the trend changes in the market and no one wants the product anymore. Or sales stop, or your completion is selling it much cheaper. What would you do as the store manager? Try and get rid of them at a discount and liquidate or keep the stock in your warehouse hoping the trend changes?

Remember, the nature of crypto has a perishable element to it. Let’s say you choose the latter as the store manager..

If you make enough purchases like this, you might run the risk of running out of operating capital and be forced to liquidate to stay in business.

[B25]

When trading the most fundamental factor is not the quality of the product made by a " company" but the market capitalization of the stock. Tesla , now with a MC of almost 34 billion $ is still considered over valued, bearing in mind that 2 years ago it had a MC of 53.5 billion, some 3 billion more than GM !!
The markets always correct in the end.
2017
Tesla, $60.28 billion, 76,230 salesBMW, $54.77 billion, 2.4 million salesGM, $51.45 billion, 9.6 million salesFord, $44.65 billion,  6.7 million sales.
It is highly valued even at today's capitalization. A reason I stayed away from it but still continue to follow. Options are rather high right now and of course the " unlikely" but speculative reports that it may well go bankrupt.

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-j ... me-2018-10

[miltiades]

Yes I read this, hence the steady recovery we have seen over the last 2 -3 weeks
It has some way to though, somehow I dont think it will significantly improve. In the meantime I keep a watchful eye out for another stock, only have two now. Tempted to go back to Galapagus, I think they will soon be making some new drugs available which could see the price significantly rising

[repulsewarrior]

...and yet some smart investors are expecting am imminent crash. Why?