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Still no confirmed Corona cases in Cyprus, but for how long?

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Re: Still no confirmed Corona cases in Cyprus, but for how l

Postby Kikapu » Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:25 pm

cyprusgrump wrote:
Kikapu wrote:
cyprusgrump wrote:So Kiks, on May 10th you posted:

Kikapu Sun May 10, 2020 7:40 pm wrote:By the way, the WHO 3.4% Covid-19 death rate was back in March. According to my calculations, it is at 4.4% as of now, which translates to 340 million dead per year if the whole world’s population were to contract the disease. Slightly higher than contracting the flu, no?


The whole world did not get the virus, so how am I proven wrong? :roll:

Four weeks ago you posted:

Kikapu Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:39 am wrote:Not exactly, Paphitis. Yes, at present time your statement seems true, but it is very much misleading, because you are dismissing the incubation period that it takes 2-4 weeks for patient to die after contracting the virus. Let’s look at the death numbers in about 2-3 weeks and see where they are. The “low” death numbers we have now are the numbers achieved with the lockdown, but as the new cases has exploded in the USA (50,000+ yesterday) after the lock down and the numbers are also increasing in other countries who are not practicing social distancing and the use of masks, I expect death rates to rise rapidly and sharply.


The death rates and daily cases has risen since July 3rd and the trajectory supports my statement as seen in the graphs.

Screen shot 2020-08-01 at 10.19.44.png




A day after you doubled-down and posted:

Kikapu Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:18 pm wrote:Actually, as of recent times, 5,000 are dropping dead a day world wide. I expect those figures to rise by 50%-100% in the next 2-4 weeks.


Once again I was mostly vindicated as the death rate on few times went from about 5,000 a day to about 7,000 a day. That would make it at 40%, not too far from the 50% base of the 100%. Even at 7 day average, the numbers are in my favour, considering your starting point was that there would be no change to the death rates from July 3rd. The trajectory of daily death s are in favour of my predictions and not yours, that there would be no change.

Screen shot 2020-08-01 at 10.21.27.png



On July 19th you wrote:

Kikapu Sun Jul 19, 2020 12:44 pm wrote:The whole world has not been infected yet, and should it does, we will lose millions of people. Basic science and arithmetic. :roll:

The daily death rate has already risen by 10% in the last 2 weeks. Look for it to increase much faster in the coming 2 weeks as the incubation period of those infected 2 weeks ago start “hatching”.


On Friday July 3rd the daily deaths (according to Worldometers) were 5,299. Or if you prefer, the 7-day moving average was 4,629.

On July 31st the daily deaths figure is 6,234 or if you prefer a 7-day moving average of 5,654.

Not exactly 50% to 100% higher or millions of deaths is it...? :wink:


The trajectory of increased daily deaths are in my favour of prediction than yours that they will remain stagnant.

Those getting the coronavirus and not dying is great as there are better understanding in treating patients to reduce deaths, but many patients surviving the coronavirus infection are not necessarily whole persons with their health as they were before contracting the virus. The case numbers have exploded at about 50% recently after the lockdowns were lifted. Can you see the connection?



:lol: :lol: :lol:

As I think I've mentioned before, denial, not just a river in Egypt.... :wink:


I agree. :D

You cannot deny the trajectory of the daily death rates moving higher than what they were on July 3rd. :roll:
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Re: Still no confirmed Corona cases in Cyprus, but for how l

Postby cyprusgrump » Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:00 pm

Kikapu wrote:
You cannot deny the trajectory of the daily death rates moving higher than what they were on July 3rd. :roll:


Is that the sound of goalposts being moved? :lol:

Why don't you make a prediction for the end of August...? After all, even if you get it completely wrong you can just move the goalposts again eh...? :wink:
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Re: Still no confirmed Corona cases in Cyprus, but for how l

Postby Kikapu » Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:23 pm

cyprusgrump wrote:
Kikapu wrote:
You cannot deny the trajectory of the daily death rates moving higher than what they were on July 3rd. :roll:


Is that the sound of goalposts being moved? :lol:

Why don't you make a prediction for the end of August...? After all, even if you get it completely wrong you can just move the goalposts again eh...? :wink:

No need to move the goal posts. The goal has already been scored. :D
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Re: Still no confirmed Corona cases in Cyprus, but for how l

Postby Paphitis » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:14 pm

Kikapu wrote:
cyprusgrump wrote:
Kikapu wrote:
You cannot deny the trajectory of the daily death rates moving higher than what they were on July 3rd. :roll:


Is that the sound of goalposts being moved? :lol:

Why don't you make a prediction for the end of August...? After all, even if you get it completely wrong you can just move the goalposts again eh...? :wink:

No need to move the goal posts. The goal has already been scored. :D


The death rate trajectory has plateaued. We have record new cases, but the rate of death doesn't seem to be commensurate with the statistics reported in the past.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

I have read somewhere that as the virus is transmitted it could be evolving to a milder form to reduce the death rate. I don't know the science behind it all, but according to an expert (can't remember who), the virus actually dies when it kills its host. So could it be that the virus is fine tuning its evolution? Or, the human race is developing some immunity? Or the stats are not accurate at all?
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Re: Still no confirmed Corona cases in Cyprus, but for how l

Postby Londonrake » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:37 pm

It’s a contentious issue but many learned people in related fields argue that a virus isn’t actually a living organism.

Doesn’t stop them taking people out sometimes of course. :shock:

https://www.khanacademy.org/test-prep/m ... d-or-alive

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Re: Still no confirmed Corona cases in Cyprus, but for how l

Postby Kikapu » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:35 pm

Paphitis wrote:
Kikapu wrote:
cyprusgrump wrote:
Kikapu wrote:
You cannot deny the trajectory of the daily death rates moving higher than what they were on July 3rd. :roll:


Is that the sound of goalposts being moved? :lol:

Why don't you make a prediction for the end of August...? After all, even if you get it completely wrong you can just move the goalposts again eh...? :wink:

No need to move the goal posts. The goal has already been scored. :D


The death rate trajectory has plateaued. We have record new cases, but the rate of death doesn't seem to be commensurate with the statistics reported in the past.

You can see the U shape trajectory rising in the graphs I posted earlier for the daily deaths. As for daily new cases, it is like climbing the Everest!
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Re: Still no confirmed Corona cases in Cyprus, but for how l

Postby Paphitis » Sat Aug 01, 2020 5:34 pm

Kikapu wrote:
Paphitis wrote:
Kikapu wrote:
cyprusgrump wrote:
Kikapu wrote:
You cannot deny the trajectory of the daily death rates moving higher than what they were on July 3rd. :roll:


Is that the sound of goalposts being moved? :lol:

Why don't you make a prediction for the end of August...? After all, even if you get it completely wrong you can just move the goalposts again eh...? :wink:

No need to move the goal posts. The goal has already been scored. :D


The death rate trajectory has plateaued. We have record new cases, but the rate of death doesn't seem to be commensurate with the statistics reported in the past.

You can see the U shape trajectory rising in the graphs I posted earlier for the daily deaths. As for daily new cases, it is like climbing the Everest!


In may, we were getting approximately 100K new cases per day and about 5K deaths per day.

Today, we are getting nearly 300K new cases per day and about 6K deaths per day. It should be 15K deaths per day.

I see that as a substantial decrease in the rate of death.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
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Re: Still no confirmed Corona cases in Cyprus, but for how l

Postby repulsewarrior » Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:32 pm



...never mind the Karen, although it is very much an example of what is wrong in America at this point; check out the bonus video on masks.
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Re: Still no confirmed Corona cases in Cyprus, but for how l

Postby cyprusgrump » Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:07 pm

Paphitis wrote:
Kikapu wrote:
Paphitis wrote:
Kikapu wrote:
cyprusgrump wrote:
Kikapu wrote:
You cannot deny the trajectory of the daily death rates moving higher than what they were on July 3rd. :roll:


Is that the sound of goalposts being moved? :lol:

Why don't you make a prediction for the end of August...? After all, even if you get it completely wrong you can just move the goalposts again eh...? :wink:

No need to move the goal posts. The goal has already been scored. :D


The death rate trajectory has plateaued. We have record new cases, but the rate of death doesn't seem to be commensurate with the statistics reported in the past.

You can see the U shape trajectory rising in the graphs I posted earlier for the daily deaths. As for daily new cases, it is like climbing the Everest!


In may, we were getting approximately 100K new cases per day and about 5K deaths per day.

Today, we are getting nearly 300K new cases per day and about 6K deaths per day. It should be 15K deaths per day.

I see that as a substantial decrease in the rate of death.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries



Mass testing... :wink:

Note that the Worldometer figures that Kiks used to 'prove' that the IFR was 6% now show it to be under 4%... Although in reality is is under 1%... :wink:
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Re: Still no confirmed Corona cases in Cyprus, but for how l

Postby Kikapu » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:48 pm

cyprusgrump wrote:
Paphitis wrote:
Kikapu wrote:
Paphitis wrote:
Kikapu wrote:
cyprusgrump wrote:
Kikapu wrote:
You cannot deny the trajectory of the daily death rates moving higher than what they were on July 3rd. :roll:


Is that the sound of goalposts being moved? :lol:

Why don't you make a prediction for the end of August...? After all, even if you get it completely wrong you can just move the goalposts again eh...? :wink:

No need to move the goal posts. The goal has already been scored. :D


The death rate trajectory has plateaued. We have record new cases, but the rate of death doesn't seem to be commensurate with the statistics reported in the past.

You can see the U shape trajectory rising in the graphs I posted earlier for the daily deaths. As for daily new cases, it is like climbing the Everest!


In may, we were getting approximately 100K new cases per day and about 5K deaths per day.

Today, we are getting nearly 300K new cases per day and about 6K deaths per day. It should be 15K deaths per day.

I see that as a substantial decrease in the rate of death.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries



Mass testing... :wink:

Note that the Worldometer figures that Kiks used to 'prove' that the IFR was 6% now show it to be under 4%... Although in reality is is under 1%... :wink:

And of course there are zero deaths in China everyday the past few months and we are suppose to believe this in a country of 1.4 billion, a place where it all started, right ?
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