Cyprus-Forum.com

[erolz66]

I don't think inflation of about 4% Vs 2%+ growth is anything to worry.

This is just the start.

We know where the inflation comes from, it's basically because of the break of the imported supply chains, and transport due to Covid.

Yes that is the current 'story' - its a temp transient blip that will smooth itself out. I do not believe it. Look at the numbers. The US alone is running at something like 700billion in new money since 2008 and for what growth ? Globally it must be trillions. I remember the 'story' when they first dreamt up QE in the wake of the 2008 global crash (caused by bankers) - it was going to be a short term temporary measure that would get us back to growth. Thirteen years later and they still talking about when they might start tapering off. Cheap money just devalues existing money and we have been running on cheap money since 2008, propped up by central banks creating ever more new money.

[Maximus]

did you convert all your money to crypto yet erolz?

[erolz66]

Inflation happens over time, especially after periods of quantitative easing.

Once central banks have increased the money supply, you end up with an economy with more money swirling about. Chasing the same or less goods and services.

So prices have to go up.

it's normal.

There is absolutely nothing normal with either the extent and duration with which all major central banks globally have been printing new money (QE) since 2008. It is entirely unprecedent in history. If it had led to real economic growth then it would have stopped years ago. It is smoke and mirrors , trying to prop up the unpropable and keep the whole circus running after the wheels have already come off. Reality is coming and its gonna be tough all round. Well except for bankers.

I was talking about inflation being normal.

You are talking about the duration of quantitative easing.

Trying to contrast what is happening elsewhere to what is happening in Turkey,

As if that is going to water the situation down over there.....

I said Turkey is at the extreme end and they are facing it earlier and in cliff edge fashion because Erdogan is an nutter. There is no mitigation for Turkey in what I am saying.

I do feel for my CYPRIOT family and compatriots who are paid in TL and have rents and loans in euros or sterling. But this is what is coming to the world, yeah not as bad as Turkey right now, but it is going to bad for almost everyone, everywhere. The end is nigh. I revisit this post annually for the next five years. See if I am right.

did you convert all your money to crypto yet erolz?

I have been and continue to seek ways of protecting my wealth against the coming 10-15 years of high inflation and slow growth. Crypto is a relatively small part of that. I am looking basically to turn assets in to cash as just about everything is overpriced right now, stocks, crypto, property - everything. I am increasing my cash holdings as my primary hedge against inflation ironically enough.

[Maximus]

Stocks are good and so is gold,

Companies raise prices to cover costs and pass it on to the consumer. if you can invest in a utilities company, they are probably the best.

Gold is historically a store of value too, particularly against inflation.

[Maximus]

cash is not a hedge against inflation,

its probably the worst thing to be rich in, in an inflationary environment.

[Pyrpolizer]

I don't think inflation of about 4% Vs 2%+ growth is anything to worry.

This is just the start.

We know where the inflation comes from, it's basically because of the break of the imported supply chains, and transport due to Covid.

Yes that is the current 'story' - its a temp transient blip that will smooth itself out. I do not believe it.

It's not a "story". We actually witness it. Cyprus is a small place. I personally know merchants dealing with imports of construction steel, expecting the goods to arrive 3 months ago, and just got them last week.It's not only one it's everybody. As a result the prices of steel, aluminum etc skyrocketed. Other than that the prices of domestic products actually dropped. This is not imported inflation, the buying price did not change...

Look at the numbers. The US alone is running at something like 700billion in new money since 2008 and for what growth ? Globally it must be trillions. I remember the 'story' when they first dreamt up QE in the wake of the 2008 global crash (caused by bankers) - it was going to be a short term temporary measure that would get us back to growth. Thirteen years later and they still talking about when they might start tapering off. Cheap money just devalues existing money and we have been running on cheap money since 2008, propped up by central banks creating ever more new money.

Are you taking into account the circulation of the initial money back to it's origin? You seem to describe QE as a pyramid scheme.
Regardless can you provide links to your sources, or is this just a personal view.

[Pyrpolizer]

cash is not a hedge against inflation,

its probably the worst thing to be rich in, in an inflationary environment.

Yeah I was also surprised to hear that from erolz. He probably means cash in some other currency.

[erolz66]

I aim to sell at the peak of the market, because this cheap money low inflation charade the worlds central banks have been playing since 2008 is not sustainable. It only last on wishful thinking. The piper always has to be paid in the end and the piper is inflation. I am looking to sell property I have had and held in the UK for 30 years in the expectation that within 3-5 years I will be able to buy it back for less than I sold it for. I would not buy stocks right now, not even solid yield bearing stocks. They are over priced by the trillion of new cheap easy money the world has been running on for the last 13 years. Even a base rate of 2% would lead to a serve property crash in the UK and even worse in NZ where house prices are so massively over inflated. But I recon base rate will be nearer 6% than 2%. The reckoning is coming imo and so yeah ironically enough I am hedging against inflation primarily by liquidating assets for cash.

My money is most firmly where my mouth is.

[Oceanside50]

This is when erdy will completely lose it.. starting a war in the Aegean or Cyprus … the Turks will be like rabid dogs with no teeth..

[Maximus]

I aim to sell at the peak of the market, because this cheap money low inflation charade the worlds central banks have been playing since 2008 is not sustainable. It only last on wishful thinking. The piper always has to be paid in the end and the piper is inflation. I am looking to sell property I have had and held in the UK for 30 years in the expectation that within 3-5 years I will be able to buy it back for less than I sold it for. I would not buy stocks right now, not even solid yield bearing stocks. They are over priced by the trillion of new cheap easy money the world has been running on for the last 13 years. Even a base rate of 2% would lead to a serve property crash in the UK and even worse in NZ where house prices are so massively over inflated. But I recon base rate will be nearer 6% than 2%. The reckoning is coming imo and so yeah ironically enough I am hedging against inflation primarily by liquidating assets for cash.

My money is most firmly where my mouth is.

Inflation means that prices go up.

For example, the cost of materials to build a house or for a company to make a product will get more expensive.

You seem to have an inverse view of what will happen if you are banking on prices coming down to buy things cheaper.

if things are massively over inflated, and we have inflation as well, then things will get more expensive. Not cheaper.