Cyprus-Forum.com

[Kikapu]

This is getting very interesting.
The guy on the video says all economic variables (external Debt, inflation, economic growth) don't justify the fall of TL unless this currency is under some kind of attack.
This is the modern way the US uses to bend economies down to their knees, Biden even threatened to do the same to Putin just recently.
Do you guys think the TL is under attack for the purpose of removing Erdogan from power?

It is no secret that a regime change in Turkey would be welcomed by the US, the EU and most of the regional countries, and to do it democratically, the target date is 2023. Before Biden became president, he came out saying that Erdogan needed to go. Since Erdogan controls every Institute in Turkey to bend it to what he wants, he has very little control over the Turkish Lira’s depreciation when Turkey’s foreign reserves are all by depleted in supporting the Lira. This is now a case of “kicking the man who is already down” by those wanting a regime change. No wonder Biden did not invite Erdogan to his “Democratic Forum” because Erdogan being too toxic. Surely it would have been oxymoronic to invite Erdogan to this summit. Who would be next to invite, Putin, Kim Jong-un or Trump?

That is one aspect above. The other aspect is that Turkey’s rosy economic numbers projected to the world cannot be relied on since it is mostly done by smoking mirrors and by cooking the books for domestic consumption, but the greater economic world does not buy into most of those compiled and projected numbers because they are not real. Just like how Turkey lies about it’s Covid numbers so to attract the tourist to the country. Erdogan’s days are numbered. The only question is, how much damage will he do before his last day in office?

[Maximus]

the greater economic world does not buy into most of those compiled and projected numbers because they are not real.

no truer word has been spoken.

Analyzing Turkey's economic data is like reading a Lewis Carroll novel.

Are you listening bodo? you listen good...

There is no credibility or integrity in them numbers.

[Pyrpolizer]

This is getting very interesting.
The guy on the video says all economic variables (external Debt, inflation, economic growth) don't justify the fall of TL unless this currency is under some kind of attack.
This is the modern way the US uses to bend economies down to their knees, Biden even threatened to do the same to Putin just recently.
Do you guys think the TL is under attack for the purpose of removing Erdogan from power?

It is no secret that a regime change in Turkey would be welcomed by the US, the EU and most of the regional countries, and to do it democratically, the target date is 2023. Before Biden became president, he came out saying that Erdogan needed to go. Since Erdogan controls every Institute in Turkey to bend it to what he wants, he has very little control over the Turkish Lira’s depreciation when Turkey’s foreign reserves are all by depleted in supporting the Lira. This is now a case of “kicking the man who is already down” by those wanting a regime change. No wonder Biden did not invite Erdogan to his “Democratic Forum” because Erdogan being too toxic. Surely it would have been oxymoronic to invite Erdogan to this summit. Who would be next to invite, Putin, Kim Jong-un or Trump?

That is one aspect above. The other aspect is that Turkey’s rosy economic numbers projected to the world cannot be relied on since it is mostly done by smoking mirrors and by cooking the books for domestic consumption, but the greater economic world does not buy into most of those compiled and projected numbers because they are not real. Just like how Turkey lies about it’s Covid numbers so to attract the tourist to the country. Erdogan’s days are numbered. The only question is, how much damage will he do before his last day in office?

Great explanation Kikapu, thanks.
Just one clarifications if you may:

You said "Turkey’s foreign reserves are all by depleted in supporting the Lira."
I know they spent a lot of reserves to support the TL before printing non stop, but have they really depleted all their reserves?

[Lordo]

It's funny how in here there is no mention of figures being false. Kicks stop feeding the monkey peanuts.

https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/rating

S&P Global Ratings has revised on December 10th, 2021 Turkey’s sovereign credit rating outlook to negative from stable and affirmed the debt grade at B+, citing rising external risks from extreme currency volatility and high inflation. The agency noted that the lira has weakened 30% against the dollar since late October, against the loosening of monetary policy over the past three months, amid high and rising inflation. In its opinion, further depreciation could pressure inflation in 2022 and may lead to a bigger deficit.

S&P warned that could cut ratings if the government's policies "further undermined the exchange rate of the lira and worsened the inflation outlook, heightening the risk of banking system distress". Moody's credit rating for Turkey was last set at B2 with negative outlook. Fitch's credit rating for Turkey was last reported at BB- with negative outlook. DBRS's credit rating for Turkey is BB (high) with negative outlook. In general, a credit rating is used by sovereign wealth funds, pension funds and other investors to gauge the credit worthiness of Turkey thus having a big impact on the country's borrowing costs. This page includes the government debt credit rating for Turkey as reported by major credit rating agencies.

Grade
Investment
AAA Highest rating. Extremely strong capacity to meet financial commitments
AA Very strong capacity to meet financial commitments
A Strong capacity to meet financial commitments, but somewhat susceptible to adverse economic conditions and changes in circumstances
BBB Adequate capacity to meet financial commitments, but more subject to adverse economic conditions
BBB- Considered lowest investment-grade by market participants Speculative
BB+ Considered highest speculative-grade by market participants
BB Less vulnerable in the near-term but faces major ongoing uncertainties to adverse business, financial and economic conditions
B More vulnerable to adverse business, financial and economic conditions but currently has the capacity to meet financial commitments
CCC Currently vulnerable and dependent on favorable business, financial and economic conditions to meet financial commitments
CC Highly vulnerable; default has not yet occurred, but is expected to be a virtual certainty
C Currently highly vulnerable to non-payment, and ultimate recovery is expected to be lower than that of higher rated obligations
D Payment default on a financial commitment or breach of an imputed promise; also used when a bankruptcy petition has been filed or similar action taken


Enjoy

[Pyrpolizer]

how is it under attack,

Im interested to know...

I don't know Max, I am not an economist.
If you watch the video, at some point towards the end he says the only explanation is "that some foreign center is dumping the TL en mass"

[Pyrpolizer]

It's funny how in here there is no mention of figures being false. Kicks stop feeding the monkey peanuts.

Greece has been cooking the books for half a century, did anyone smell anything?


outlook for Cyprus:
https://tradingeconomics.com/cyprus/rating

[Kikapu]

This is getting very interesting.
The guy on the video says all economic variables (external Debt, inflation, economic growth) don't justify the fall of TL unless this currency is under some kind of attack.
This is the modern way the US uses to bend economies down to their knees, Biden even threatened to do the same to Putin just recently.
Do you guys think the TL is under attack for the purpose of removing Erdogan from power?

It is no secret that a regime change in Turkey would be welcomed by the US, the EU and most of the regional countries, and to do it democratically, the target date is 2023. Before Biden became president, he came out saying that Erdogan needed to go. Since Erdogan controls every Institute in Turkey to bend it to what he wants, he has very little control over the Turkish Lira’s depreciation when Turkey’s foreign reserves are all by depleted in supporting the Lira. This is now a case of “kicking the man who is already down” by those wanting a regime change. No wonder Biden did not invite Erdogan to his “Democratic Forum” because Erdogan being too toxic. Surely it would have been oxymoronic to invite Erdogan to this summit. Who would be next to invite, Putin, Kim Jong-un or Trump?

That is one aspect above. The other aspect is that Turkey’s rosy economic numbers projected to the world cannot be relied on since it is mostly done by smoking mirrors and by cooking the books for domestic consumption, but the greater economic world does not buy into most of those compiled and projected numbers because they are not real. Just like how Turkey lies about it’s Covid numbers so to attract the tourist to the country. Erdogan’s days are numbered. The only question is, how much damage will he do before his last day in office?

Great explanation Kikapu, thanks.
Just one clarifications if you may:

You said "Turkey’s foreign reserves are all by depleted in supporting the Lira."
I know they spent a lot of reserves to support the TL before printing non stop, but have they really depleted all their reserves?

Pyro, most probably Turkey has not depleted all of their foreign reserve because they would need some to pay off their foreign debts with the remaining amount. What they have most probably all but depleted are the funds reserved for supporting the Lira, which seems to slow down the Lira’s depreciation for the moment, but then it starts to slide again until the next intervention by the central bank. The Lira has become the boat with constant small holes in it’s hull and taking in water despite some of the holes getting plugged one at a time as more holes are appearing at the same time creating a losing proposition.

[Pyrpolizer]

Ah, Ok thanks again.

[Kikapu]

It's funny how in here there is no mention of figures being false. Kicks stop feeding the monkey peanuts.

Greece has been cooking the books for half a century, did anyone smell anything?

That’s why they needed a bail out few years back which has caused major hardship for a lot of Greeks. If they didn’t have the Euro, their Greek drachma would have devalued just as bad as the TL, if not more.

[Pyrpolizer]

Mainland Greeks, mainland Turks, the same shit if you ask me.
Problem is we still have a lot of people from both sides in Cyprus still believing in "motherlands"