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Bottom up approach

Propose and discuss specific solutions to aspects of the Cyprus Problem

Postby Alexandros Lordos » Tue Jan 31, 2006 3:47 pm

Tony-4497 wrote:Unfortunately for us, the concept of "BBF with political equality" means that in any such solution the federal state's sovereignty will NOT override that of the TC state.


In my understanding, "political equality" is more about how power will be shared in the Federal Government, and less about how autonomous the constituent states will be. What TCs have always asked for is that they be given the right to participate in all Federal Decisions, a right which is largely acknowledged in the Annan Plan and generally undisputed by the GC public. For this reason, I do not see the transference of powers to the federal government to be an impediment to political equality, on the understanding that the Federal Government is not about "simple majority rule"

Tony-4497 wrote:Also, as I said, the issue of "land for sovereignty" is not addressed anywhere in those polls.


No, it's not addressed in exactly the way you put it, at least not yet: It's in my plans for a future survey. Having said that, there was a question in the most recent survey which asked both communities if they would accept an 82%-18% territorial resolution, on the understanding that all property that remains in the Turkish Cypriot Consituent State (not Independent State) would remain in Turkish Cypriot hands, with monetary compensation for its original owners. The response was: Turkish Cypriots were strongly in favour, Greek Cypriots were strongly against, though not as opposed as they were to the Annan Plan property provisions.
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Postby The Cypriot » Tue Jan 31, 2006 5:21 pm

Alexandros wrote:
Having said that, if a civil society initiative to draft such a revised plan goes ahead, with the tacit approval of the leaders but also with the understanding that its results cannot be binding to the negotiators, then I am sure politicians on both sides as well as the EU/Security Council Countries/UN will make extensive use of the results.

Any thoughts on how this could happen?
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Postby Lala_Mustafa_Pasha » Tue Jan 31, 2006 6:03 pm

Agios
Re Lala you will be lucky if there are 40,000 to 50,000 turkish Cypriots in Cyprus today .


Thers only one one to find out, come to Turkish Cyprus and see :D
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Postby Alexandros Lordos » Wed Feb 01, 2006 1:27 am

The Cypriot wrote:Alexandros wrote:
Having said that, if a civil society initiative to draft such a revised plan goes ahead, with the tacit approval of the leaders but also with the understanding that its results cannot be binding to the negotiators, then I am sure politicians on both sides as well as the EU/Security Council Countries/UN will make extensive use of the results.

Any thoughts on how this could happen?


I guess the first step must be to sound out the leaders of the two communities regarding such a posible initiative and listen to their feedback/concerns ... then take it from there :wink:
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Postby cypezokyli » Wed Feb 01, 2006 1:31 am

alexandre, just out of curiosity, did you get any serious feetback from the political parties on that research that was published ?
feetback, privatly or publicly (i didnot see sth in the press to be honest) ?
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Postby Alexandros Lordos » Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:20 pm

cypezokyli wrote:alexandre, just out of curiosity, did you get any serious feetback from the political parties on that research that was published ?
feetback, privatly or publicly (i didnot see sth in the press to be honest) ?


From what I am aware, the surveys are being used by the two leaderships and also the political parties for planning purposes in view of a possible recommencement of negotiations ... though I have not received very specific comments about specific questions/results. The UN is also studying the results. Beyond that, I am not in a position to know really.
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Postby boulio » Wed Feb 01, 2006 7:52 pm

hey alex again good work,are you preparing another survey to be conducted and if so,will it have more raw questioning like territorial adjustments and the british bases?
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Postby Tony-4497 » Tue Feb 07, 2006 12:40 am

No, it's not addressed in exactly the way you put it, at least not yet: It's in my plans for a future survey. Having said that, there was a question in the most recent survey which asked both communities if they would accept an 82%-18% territorial resolution, on the understanding that all property that remains in the Turkish Cypriot Consituent State (not Independent State) would remain in Turkish Cypriot hands, with monetary compensation for its original owners. The response was: Turkish Cypriots were strongly in favour, Greek Cypriots were strongly against, though not as opposed as they were to the Annan Plan property provisions.


Alex

I have eventually found time to have a good look at this report.

I believe the findings actually fully support my point and the main message of the "80% Party".

Page 68 demonstrates that when presented with a range of possible solutions to the property issue, the GC people would obviously prefer all solutions that would allow them to RETURN to the ENTIRE area of Cyprus (ALL possible solutions that "beat" the 80% solution in the poll involved the full return to ALL of Cyprus, and I can assure you that GCs are assuming that this would be done under a very strong Federal government, as they have shown elsewhere in the report that they would not want to return if this was not the case).

If however they are given the choice between a solution which does not allow ALL of them to return to their lands (i.e. Annan plan), they much prefer the 80% solution. This is also acceptable to the TCs by far (which disproves arguments made by others here suggesting that TCs would not accept this).

As it is clear that there is no way that TC will allow ALL refugees to return as they demand strong majority and a sovereign state, it is obvious that the only realistic possibility for a solution is on an 80-20 split, possibly with limited rights of return for GC in order to make it slightly more acceptable to GCs.
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Postby Simon » Tue Feb 07, 2006 6:09 pm

I believe the findings actually fully support my point and the main message of the "80% Party".

Page 68 demonstrates that when presented with a range of possible solutions to the property issue, the GC people would obviously prefer all solutions that would allow them to RETURN to the ENTIRE area of Cyprus (ALL possible solutions that "beat" the 80% solution in the poll involved the full return to ALL of Cyprus, and I can assure you that GCs are assuming that this would be done under a very strong Federal government, as they have shown elsewhere in the report that they would not want to return if this was not the case).

If however they are given the choice between a solution which does not allow ALL of them to return to their lands (i.e. Annan plan), they much prefer the 80% solution. This is also acceptable to the TCs by far (which disproves arguments made by others here suggesting that TCs would not accept this).

As it is clear that there is no way that TC will allow ALL refugees to return as they demand strong majority and a sovereign state, it is obvious that the only realistic possibility for a solution is on an 80-20 split, possibly with limited rights of return for GC in order to make it slightly more acceptable to GCs.


All this I agree with. :)
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Postby Alexandros Lordos » Fri Feb 10, 2006 6:35 am

Tony-4497 wrote:As it is clear that there is no way that TC will allow ALL refugees to return as they demand strong majority and a sovereign state, it is obvious that the only realistic possibility for a solution is on an 80-20 split, possibly with limited rights of return for GC in order to make it slightly more acceptable to GCs.


Actually, it is not "clear" that the TCs will not allow the return of all refugees ... in fact, from the various aspects of the Cyprus Problem, the property issue is the one closest to a consensus solution at the moment. Why? Because the TCs themselves are demanding that they be given the full option to reclaim their properties in the south if they wish to do so, while the GC refugees are also demanding that they be given title deeds for the refugee houses they are currently using, which of course are largely built on TC land. Thus, any new proposal solution for the property issue will look very much like "option D" in my May 2005 poll, ie full return of all properties that a refugee does not intend to keep through exchange of equivalent properties. The "quota" philosophy of the Annan Plan will not be present in a new Plan.

The other two aspects of right of return are of course residence rights, and the issue of how strong the federation is. On these issues, it is wrong to assume that each side's maximal position is also their final fallback position. If you only compare maximal positions, it would seem that a compromise is impossible. But the possible common ground is there, as was shown in the May 2005 survey, and a new UN initiative will definitely work towards bringing both sides to a moderate position.

If you ask me, the more serious obstacles to achieving a solution are not to do with the right of return as such, but with the security issue and the settlers issue. In both these aspects the two sides are strongly opposed, they think under a veil of insecurity and prejudice, and finally, Turkey is also involved and must also show its goodwill.
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