magikthrill wrote:so you are saying that outward immigration from the isolated breakway state was the same after 74 as it was before?
maybe thats true but most of the TCs on this forum dont actually live in northern cyprus. but maybe i am wrong.
Yes my assumption was that outward immigration had stayed the same after 1974. The reasons for my assumption was quite simple actually. I usually divide the period after 3 periods.
a) 74-90s
b) 90s-2004
c) 2004-contiunuing
(a) First of all after 1974 the outward immigration definitely had reversed itself for TCs initially. This is because many TCs that have left the island during 63-74 conflict and went to Turkey turned back to island due to many reasons including social unrest in Turkey in late 70's, improving conditions in Cyprus after 1974. Believe it or not TCs had their best economic prosperity on the island between the period of 74-90 (I am talking about relative prosperity, in absolute terms every day is better than before usually).
The main reason was that there was increased economic activity on the north during these years due to many reasons like settlers coming to island, outside investment to island, Asil Nadir effect, etc. etc. TC were able to sell everything to UK till 90's (it was in 1994 due to EU court ruling that UK stopped accepting north Cyprus origin goods, For example exports to EU was $37mil in 1993 and it was $12.5 mil in 2003). So there was definitely a relative economic prosperity at north Cyprus up to 90’s.
(b) After 90’s is when really the effects of economic isolation started showing signs. And 90s were also the years where Turkey economically became very unstable and investment and cash inflow from Turkey started get distracted. So after 90’s outward immigration may have gone up again.
(c) Effects of this period are still to be seen.
But I assume that overall these two effects (period a and b) would cancel each other out. Therefore I assume that outward immigration of TCs can not be higher than it was during the periods 1960-1974 which mainly includes the worst periods for TCs on the island, period of 63-74.
That is my reasoning. If you have other reasoning to believe otherwise please share them,
Take care,
p.s. Most of the TC members being outside of this forum can be explained with so many different reasons. Like easy access to internet at overseas. I become a member of this forum last year when I have left Cyprus for personal reasons (and trust me 2004 can hardly be classified a year as outward immigration in Cyprus). It is very hard to get good connection in Cyprus with traditional dial-up modem. I am usually sick of connecting at 45kbit all the time. No DSL, no cable. That may be one of the reasons.