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Repercussions of Russian / Georgian conflict

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Postby Filitsa » Sun Aug 17, 2008 9:47 pm

miltiades wrote:
Filitsa wrote:
miltiades wrote:Filitsa , every media source refers to him as an American educated lawyer , does it matter that much if he was a Harvard graduate ? He is most certainly not a wise diplomat, on the contrary more of a loose canon , utterly impulsive , with an uncontrollable temper that could cost the West a great deal.
America was quite in order with its response.


Do you commonly subscribe to misinformation, generalizations, and faulty logic, Miltiades? The fact is that Shaakasvili was not educated at Harvard. Your willingness to render post-secondary educational institutions in the U.S. homogeneous indicates that you know very little about them. Further, a law degree, from the U.S. or anywhere else, does not guarantee a wise diplomat. Neither does is it temper the "utterly impulsive" "loose can[n]on" "with an uncontrollable temper." These are inherent personality traits that, again, a law degree, from America or anywhere else, cannot alter. Indeed "America was quite in order with its response."

You are not making sense Filitsa , what exactly is it that you dissagree with ? Faulty logic regarding what ?


I shall make it simple for you, Miltiades, by cutting to the quick. This "loose cannon" is a by-product of American neo-con politics. Is it any wonder the U.S. reacted the way it did? Do you really believe that Saakashvili simply woke up one day and determined to invade South Ossetia without regard for Russian reprisal?
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Postby Bananiot » Sun Aug 17, 2008 10:08 pm

May be he did Filitsa. How can you be absolutely sure? May be he misjudged and thought that the Americans and NATO would step in and stop the Russians. After all he is a rooky politician, just like Makarios was in 1960.
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Postby Filitsa » Sun Aug 17, 2008 11:05 pm

Bananiot wrote:May be he did Filitsa. How can you be absolutely sure? May be he misjudged and thought that the Americans and NATO would step in and stop the Russians. After all he is a rooky politician, just like Makarios was in 1960.


It's possible, but not probable, Bannaniot. In my opinion, Makarios's mistake is forgiveable, and he did not have the support of the U.S., which is why he turned to Russia at one point. Saakashvili, on the other hand, does have the "support" of the U.S. When the neo-cons are involved, I am suspicious of clandestine activity. Call me a cynical American, but I've been given enough reason to be.
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Postby Filitsa » Sun Aug 17, 2008 11:45 pm

Further, Bananiot, Saakashvili's move on South Ossetia was too blatantly stupid - like suicide - for it to be done on his on accord. I don't think Saakashvili is this stupid. Rather, I think it's part of a bigger plan, with bigger players, to get the trouble makers out of Georgia while retaining its borders, allowing the U.S., with its peace accord, to swoop in and save the day, and continue their push toward NATO, pipeline and all.

Should Georgia aspire to NATO? If it's the will of its people, it should.
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Postby Oracle » Mon Aug 18, 2008 12:02 am

Saakashvili was only stupid in believing the Americans would get him out of any opposition from the Russians regarding his ill-advised actions.

His stupidity is Paramount and unforgivable, and he should be removed from Office immediately, although since he has the blessing of Bush, he will remain in office .... :roll:
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Postby Raymanoff » Mon Aug 18, 2008 8:10 am

Spotted Russian made Hummer (Tiger GAZ2975) in some news footage, they are already in service. :D

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Postby miltiades » Mon Aug 18, 2008 8:57 am

Oracle wrote:Saakashvili was only stupid in believing the Americans would get him out of any opposition from the Russians regarding his ill-advised actions.

His stupidity is Paramount and unforgivable, and he should be removed from Office immediately, although since he has the blessing of Bush, he will remain in office .... :roll:


I agree here with O , the man grossly miscalculated the importance of Georgia to the West , here the times says " In his attempts to clamp down on pro-Russian South Ossetian separatists, Mr Saakashvili appears to have made one fundamental, disastrous miscalculation: that the Bush Administration and the West viewed their relationship with Georgia as more important than that with Russia.

I still do not understand Filitsa's point here.
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Postby Bananiot » Tue Aug 19, 2008 2:31 pm

Anti Americanism, socialism of the fools, Miltiades.
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Postby Piratis » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:50 pm

Bananiot wrote:Anti Americanism, socialism of the fools, Miltiades.


Pro Americanism, the patriotism of those with no principles.
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Some thoughts

Postby Tim Drayton » Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:52 pm

I can’t help wondering if there are parallels between the recent debacle in Georgia and the Hungarian uprising against Soviet rule in 1956. Some people have argued that the Hungarian people at the time were misled by the propaganda that they were fed by the likes of Radio Free Europe into believing that if they started something, the West would step in and help them finish it. Unfortunately, the values of liberty and democracy promoted by the West needed to be taken with a pinch of salt because, ultimately, these values were a veneer to justify whatever action the West took in its own interests. The Hungarian people learned this lesson the hard way.

On the other hand, when I hear Angela Merkel speaking out in favour of Georgia’s NATO membership, my ears up prick up. After all, France and Germany were very sceptical, rightly so in hindsight, of the Anglo-American alliance’s Rambo style campaign to take over Afghanistan and Iraq. Yet, here is the leader of one of European countries that has shown little support for the US neo-imperialistic project in the Middle East seemingly lending its support to a campaign with similar overtones in the Caucasus.

This makes me think there may be much more substance behind these developments. About a decade ago people on the left of the political spectrum were speculating about the existence of massive hydrocarbon reserves under the Caspian Sea. It was argued that the major world powers would start vying with one another to gain control of territory in the vicinity of the Caspian Sea and so to get their hands on the greatest possible share of what could well be the last huge oilfield in the world.

This theory of the Caspian being a hydrocarbon El Dorado has been debunked; for example:

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/86

Despite this, everything that America has been doing in the region supports the Caspian Sea theory. First Afghanistan, then Iraq and now Georgia. A circle is gradually being drawn around the Caspian. So perhaps recent events in Georgia do fit into a wider pattern.

If this analysis is correct, Russia could only have won the first battle, but not the war. The West here may have embarked on a drawn-out campaign in which the carrot of NATO and EU membership is dangled before the eyes of people in Georgia and other Caucasian countries. This is probably an enticing proposition to a great many people in these countries. If the majority of the population in such countries can be shown to support these goals, this can be portrayed with considerable justification as a manifestation of their right to self-determination. Russia can then be cast in the mould of aggressive bully boy trampling on the right of self-determination of its former subject peoples. This is a long-term propaganda campaign in which the Russians could be defeated using ideological as well as physical weapons.

One key player here is Turkey. Georgia’s potential EU membership obviously makes no geopolitical sense unless Turkey first accedes. If the strategy I have outlined above really exists, then Turkey’s EU accession process will have to be accelerated. Cyprus is obviously a major obstacle to this. Perhaps this year could see a ‘miracle settlement’ of this long-standing problem, after all. Simply because it stands in the way of achieving much more important goals.

Is this idle speculation, or does it strike a chord with anybody else?
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