by Nikitas » Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:54 am
Offshore, to the south, oil and gas confound Turkey. Davut had just written a 64 page treatise on the demise of the RoC, describing it as the "late" Republic, and "moribund" and up comes the gas with US companies being involved in the exploitation and the EU needing the gas in view of Russia's games in the Ukraine.
These development come on top of EU membership. It looks like events are proving Davut's forecast of a demise a little premature. Both the EU membership and the gas find reinforce the RoC.
None of the local "powers" not even Israel, have the ability to exploit the offshore oil and gas finds. The only way to do this is via partnerships with the oil companies or via outright leases to them. The only entity that can offer legal contracts to these companies is the RoC. These companies are corporate citizens of the most powerful nation states in the world and their interests are protected by powerful navies and air forces.
The situation seems to indicate anything but closer cooperation between the two communities. No reasonable capitalist would want to introduce a veto wielding new party into the negotiations. The capitalist class in the south has no incentive to share the new found wealth. The north is offering no incentive, it holds no valid cards here. In fact the reverse is true. After a generation of touting "two peoples", "two nations" it can hardly lay claim to resources clearly and unequivocally laying in the southern EEZ. Notice how the RoC refrained from pressing its legal right and offer exploration licenses to the northern EEZ.
To the above I add something else, which did not exist before- the breaking of the Partition Taboo in Greek public opinion. This year, for the first time, Greek media are openly discussing the option of a "silk divorce" in the form of an agreed partition. In the past any open and public mention of Partition would have raised hell. Not now. The most recent pro partition article was by respected political commentator Lygeros. The Greek side is seeing the opportunities underlying partition: by a unilateral ceding of territory and recognition of the TRNC the RoC can get rid of the problem and have the southern EEZ eclusively to itself. The result would leave a long EEZ stretching from Israel to Italy in Greek hands underwritten by American, French and Italian interests.
It is interesting that on July 1 Greece presented the geoseismic surveys for its own oil and gas fields to the south and west, areas beyond any possible claim by Turkey. All the oil majors were present at the London presentation.
It looks like the TCs are about to gain a pyrrhic victory, and get official approval for Partition and Enosis of the north with Turkey, from where they can watch the south prosper and flourish as an energy center. What we need now is Davut to write another long treatise, maybe this time be on the right tack, that the best way to solve the problem is to get all rivals OUT of Cyprus and find a way to guarantee independence. It will take time, but it will dawn on him eventually.
did I say that out loud 
