Cyprus-Forum.com

[Lordo]

if uk crashes out with brexit with no deal does the backstop still apply or is it automatically removed.

[Londonrake]

if uk crashes out with brexit with no deal does the backstop still apply or is it automatically removed.

"Crash out" is part of Remainer lexicon. They just can't wean themselves off the headless-chicken scare mongering stuff. Actually it means "Leave the EU without a formal trade agreement". In that case, I suspect you'd be amazed at just how quickly one appears. Another good one is that everybody who voted leave in the referendum - and those politicians who've consistently stuck to that aim - have for a while been labelled "Brexit extremists"

A few months ago the idea of implementing a system which would check those - relatively small - elements of cross Irish border trade with minimal disruption was labelled by the great Mr Barnier as "Magical thinking". Now though he has changed to "“My team and I have done a lot of work on virtual, decentralised controls, which will be useful in all hypotheses,”. He's talking about - funny ole fing - digital checks by computer that link licence plate numbers to customs declarations, filed in advance online. Exactly the same as the "magical thinking" system that's planned to be used at Calais.

Ireland's a shibboleth. With two parts of the EU using different tax systems and currencies there's in essence been a "border", operating on a daily basis for decades. It was a trap to lock the UK into the Customs Union - otherwise known as leaving the EU without actually doing so (BRINO). Much to my disgust it seems that the UK parliament's overflowing with people only too willing to oblige.

I can't believe that they don’t see it though. They’re pissing off a very large number of people and politically will become The Walking Dead. If that's what the UK ends up with - I can't wait for the next election.

[Paphitis]

The remoaners are full of crap!

If UK Brexit with no trade deal, one will miraculously appear within weeks, if not days.

Pretty stupid if Turkey, USA and Australia have Free Trade with the EU and the UK don't.

[Lordo]

ehem ehem i did not ask for drivel, i asked for a bit of legal advice specifically to do with the
no-deal crash out and backstop. it really could not be a simpler question.

does it still apply or does it not?

[Lordo]

The remoaners are full of crap!

If UK Brexit with no trade deal, one will miraculously appear within weeks, if not days.

Pretty stupid if Turkey, USA and Australia have Free Trade with the EU and the UK don't.

you really are one stupid idividual. have you any idea how long these negotiations take? the canadian one was started in 2009 and concluded september 2017. incerdible one of the 4 federal states of belgium objected to it so they had to wait till it agreed before they could conclude. ireland can do the same to uk they can block an agreement till kingdon come if they wished.

last i looked uk had 30 negotiators expert enough to negotiate all these deals.

they could not organise a pissup in a brewery if they tried.

one other small matter though.
eu eports to uk are around 16% of their total exports and uk exports to the eu are around 56%. now put that in your pipe and smoke it.

[Paphitis]

The remoaners are full of crap!

If UK Brexit with no trade deal, one will miraculously appear within weeks, if not days.

Pretty stupid if Turkey, USA and Australia have Free Trade with the EU and the UK don't.

you really are one stupid idividual. have you any idea how long these negotiations take? the canadian one was started in 2009 and concluded september 2017. incerdible one of the 4 federal states of belgium objected to it so they had to wait till it agreed before they could conclude. ireland can do the same to uk they can block an agreement till kingdon come if they wished.

last i looked uk had 30 negotiators expert enough to negotiate all these deals.

they could not organise a pissup in a brewery if they tried.

one other small matter though.
eu eports to uk are around 16% of their total exports and uk exports to the eu are around 56%. now put that in your pipe and smoke it.

Right! Do you honestly believe that the EU imports to the UK will cease or reduce and UK exports to EU will cease or reduce.

Don't bet on it.

[Londonrake]

ehem ehem i did not ask for drivel, i asked for a bit of legal advice specifically to do with the
no-deal crash out and backstop. it really could not be a simpler question.

does it still apply or does it not?

My apologies. Drivel appeared to me to be the language you use most and therefore would understand best. Must (not) try harder.

Are you familiar with the expression DYOR?

[erolz66]

if uk crashes out with brexit with no deal does the backstop still apply or is it automatically removed.

The 'backstop' is part of the withdrawal agreement. If the UK leaves the EU without a deal then there is no 'backstop'.

"Crash out" is part of Remainer lexicon. They just can't wean themselves off the headless-chicken scare mongering stuff.

There is some validity in your argument that the term 'crash out exit' is overly dramatic and negative. However your 'complaint' is then undermined by you, personally, doing exactly the same, arguably to a greater degree when you say

Actually it means "Leave the EU without a formal trade agreement".

Leaving without a deal means massively more than just this. It means the UK choosing to end literally hundreds of existing international agreements it is party to, not just with the 27 EU members states but also with around 140 other non EU states, that cover vastly more things than just 'trade', all on the same day and then seeking to try and put back each of these agreements after the fact.

A few months ago the idea of implementing a system which would check those - relatively small - elements of cross Irish border trade with minimal disruption was labelled by the great Mr Barnier as "Magical thinking". Now though he has changed to "“My team and I have done a lot of work on virtual, decentralised controls, which will be useful in all hypotheses,”. He's talking about - funny ole fing - digital checks by computer that link licence plate numbers to customs declarations, filed in advance online. Exactly the same as the "magical thinking" system that's planned to be used at Calais.

It may prove possible via some sort of 'technology' solution to be able to not have to increase the 'hardness' of the border between NI and Ireland in a scenario where Ireland has different customs rules for goods than NI has. The EU however has every right to be concerned with and about protecting the integrity of it's customs union and to ask the question 'what happens if these technical solutions prove to be unable to maintain the integrity of its customs union' ? This is what the backstop is.

It was a trap to lock the UK into the Customs Union - otherwise known as leaving the EU without actually doing so (BRINO)

The idea of the UK leaving the EU but remaining in the customs union would be the UK having left the EU in all but name, is so ridiculous that it is hard to start challenging it. At best remaining in the customs union could be said to still being in the EU to a degree. Trying to argue that that degree is more than say '20% in and 80% out' would be hard for any person not driven by 'dogma'. Do you really think Turkey is in the EU in all but name ?

In that case, I suspect you'd be amazed at just how quickly one appears.

In the event of a no deal exit, none of the issues around exiting with a deal go away. Yes the EU will have incentive to put in place new trading arrangements between itself and the UK, but they will also still want an agreement on the UK paying its obligations associated with exit. It will still want to protect the integrity of it's customs union without having to increase the hardness of the border between NI and Ireland. The idea that it will 'forget' about these issues after a no deal exit and 'rush' to put in a trade deal with the UK is unrealistic. Yes the UK buys more goods from the EU than the it sells top them. However there is a 'backstop' with such trade - namely WTO rules, that limits the free sovereign reaction of both the UK and the EU in such a scenario. On services, where the UK sells much more to the EU than it buys, there is no such 'backstop'.

Much to my disgust it seems that the UK parliament's overflowing with people only too willing to oblige.

Yet this is the same parliament that it was argued that we must return increasing sovereignty to by leaving the EU, even if that means taking an economic hit.

[Londonrake]

Erolz66:

Thanks for your well reasoned and polite response.

You raise quite a few issues (I concede, as did I). There are counter arguments to them of course. However, after 3 years of it TBH I’ve gotten a bit fed up with the whole Brexit thing. The relative absence of related discussion hereabouts being part of the reason I’ve always enjoyed this forum. I’ve particularly admired Milti’s candid posts on the subject though.

Although I voted Leave, it’s always been with a sceptical view about actually doing so. Nothing’s really happened yet to change that.

What’s the old Chinese curse about “interesting times”?

[Lordo]

if uk crashes out with brexit with no deal does the backstop still apply or is it automatically removed.

The 'backstop' is part of the withdrawal agreement. If the UK leaves the EU without a deal then there is no 'backstop'.

"Crash out" is part of Remainer lexicon. They just can't wean themselves off the headless-chicken scare mongering stuff.

There is some validity in your argument that the term 'crash out exit' is overly dramatic and negative. However your 'complaint' is then undermined by you, personally, doing exactly the same, arguably to a greater degree when you say

Actually it means "Leave the EU without a formal trade agreement".

Leaving without a deal means massively more than just this. It means the UK choosing to end literally hundreds of existing international agreements it is party to, not just with the 27 EU members states but also with around 140 other non EU states, that cover vastly more things than just 'trade', all on the same day and then seeking to try and put back each of these agreements after the fact.

A few months ago the idea of implementing a system which would check those - relatively small - elements of cross Irish border trade with minimal disruption was labelled by the great Mr Barnier as "Magical thinking". Now though he has changed to "“My team and I have done a lot of work on virtual, decentralised controls, which will be useful in all hypotheses,”. He's talking about - funny ole fing - digital checks by computer that link licence plate numbers to customs declarations, filed in advance online. Exactly the same as the "magical thinking" system that's planned to be used at Calais.

It may prove possible via some sort of 'technology' solution to be able to not have to increase the 'hardness' of the border between NI and Ireland in a scenario where Ireland has different customs rules for goods than NI has. The EU however has every right to be concerned with and about protecting the integrity of it's customs union and to ask the question 'what happens if these technical solutions prove to be unable to maintain the integrity of its customs union' ? This is what the backstop is.

It was a trap to lock the UK into the Customs Union - otherwise known as leaving the EU without actually doing so (BRINO)

The idea of the UK leaving the EU but remaining in the customs union would be the UK having left the EU in all but name, is so ridiculous that it is hard to start challenging it. At best remaining in the customs union could be said to still being in the EU to a degree. Trying to argue that that degree is more than say '20% in and 80% out' would be hard for any person not driven by 'dogma'. Do you really think Turkey is in the EU in all but name ?

In that case, I suspect you'd be amazed at just how quickly one appears.

In the event of a no deal exit, none of the issues around exiting with a deal go away. Yes the EU will have incentive to put in place new trading arrangements between itself and the UK, but they will also still want an agreement on the UK paying its obligations associated with exit. It will still want to protect the integrity of it's customs union without having to increase the hardness of the border between NI and Ireland. The idea that it will 'forget' about these issues after a no deal exit and 'rush' to put in a trade deal with the UK is unrealistic. Yes the UK buys more goods from the EU than the it sells top them. However there is a 'backstop' with such trade - namely WTO rules, that limits the free sovereign reaction of both the UK and the EU in such a scenario. On services, where the UK sells much more to the EU than it buys, there is no such 'backstop'.

Much to my disgust it seems that the UK parliament's overflowing with people only too willing to oblige.

Yet this is the same parliament that it was argued that we must return increasing sovereignty to by leaving the EU, even if that means taking an economic hit.

erol there is an issue with what you have said. it is common knowledge that the backstop was not put their out of choice. it was put there becasue the agreement to leave the eu would undermine the previous international agreement of the good friday agreement. the attorney general was asked to comment about whether at some point it can be removed in the future by uk and the answer was no. there is a risk that it may never be removed. the reason why they thought it could be removed was that article 62 of the geneva convention which applies here, an international agreement can be negated under certain unforseen circumstances by one of the sigantory parties. the legal advice given to the brexiteers was that this situation can hardly be specified as unforseen. so if uk crashes out they would have to apply for not applying the backstop too.

it seems to me no matter what happens to the uk there cannot be a border between the two irelands so the border will have to be between northern ireland and uk. i guess they can just do it and flout the international agreement and it will have two consequences. they will end up in court where uk will lose and even if uk wins it willead to hostilities between the two communities.