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what next?

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Re: what next?

Postby erolz66 » Fri Sep 20, 2019 1:36 pm

Londonrake wrote:All deals or No deal will be voted down by the current parliament. It isn’t about deals. That’s just an excuse for people who simply want to stay in the EU but - for many of them - don’t have the guts to admit it.


Everyone who wants remain will support efforts to stop a no deal exit. That does not mean that everyone who supports stopping a no deal exit also wants remain. This is no different from saying, any out and out old school racist would support leaving the EU but this does not mean that everyone who supports leaving is an out and out old school racist.

The main former conservative architects for stopping a no deal exit, like Grieve and Hammond, voted consistently three times for leaving with a deal. It is hard for me to believe they did so motivates by a overt or covert desire to stop brexit happening at all. The likes of Johnson and Mogg voted against such an exit twice and then for it once.

I can understand why you might want to believe that anyone and everyone who opposes a no deal exit has a (overt or covert) desire to stop the UK leaving at all but I also think you are capable of realising what is something you want to believe for convenience regardless of what reality actually is vs what statistical probability is closest to actual reality.
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Re: what next?

Postby cyprusgrump » Fri Sep 20, 2019 2:01 pm

As has been mentioned multiple times on here before, 'No Deal Brexit', aka 'Crashing out without a deal' aka goodness knows how many other variations is merely a post referendum Remoaner 'Project Fear' term for Brexit under WTO rules...

...moreover, as I have pointed out before, there isn't even 'no deal', there are plenty of deals already in place like the one to keep aircraft flying (remember when the Remoaner scare du jour was that aircraft would be unable to fly from the UK to the EU)...?

It really is große Lüge as Londonrake said earlier... :roll:

We're going to leave, I expect we'll get a trade agreement of some form to add to the other 'deals' already in place but if we don't we'll continue to trade and we'll continue to negotiate after the leave date...

Oh, and would you like some evidence to back up my assertion that 'No Deal' is a post referendum Remoaner scare term...? Type it into Google Trends... :wink:
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Re: what next?

Postby Pyrpolizer » Fri Sep 20, 2019 2:04 pm

Londonrake wrote:Pyro.

Thanks for taking the time to respond.

One of the features of this situation, since day one, has been the use of propaganda (aka lies) to promote each side of the cause. Whilst I've lost count of the likes of the NHS bus being trawled over, the blatant lies the "establishment" told ********* in the referendum campaign have been swept away though. Never to be discussed by the remain cause who, in essence, act as though it never happened. Despite that, to myself and a great many others it's fundamental.

Project Fear, a blitz of scare-mongering, continues to this day. Now, instead of the (immediate) dire consequences of voting to leave they've simply transported the apocalypse to No Deal (which is actually just a euphemism/excuse for not leaving). The closer the "threat" of Brexit looms the more of it we get. Recently, a veritable avalanche.

Your posts and Lordo's/Kikapu's are sometimes typical examples of the technique. For instance, a simple one sentence response from yourself to a post by Paphitis, stating that UK GDP would drop by 20% in year one of no deal. That's obviously ludicrous but par for the course and might be accepted at face value by some. It's a basic Goebbel's technique. Tell a big lie often enough and.....................

Whilst not directly related, the assertion that the Cypriot economy crashed by 40% in 2013 was obviously equally wrong. In fact, the loss of GDP was closer to 5%. That, in pretty disastrous times for the country.

The bottom line is that many remainers can't wean themselves off Project Fear. It was all lies then and many believe it's exactly the same again now. Crying Wolf. Where's the remain credibility after the referendum campaign fiasco?

I imagine it's a great concern for the mouth-foaming remainer type that if, instead of the oft-promoted end-of-the-world, actually not much at all happens. In here there would I'm sure be pages of their past Armageddon quote posts. A rod made for the back.


****** An interesting feature of the referendum campaign and since has been an absence of much in the way of promoting the benefits of EU membership. The vast majority has been about the horrendous consequences of leaving. Cameron knew trying to sell the EU to the UK electorate would be a disastrous strategy (not that the other one wasn't! :lol: )


While I do sympathize with you on the fact that what you personally voted has not been implemented yet, I was always as honest as I could about my positions which in summary are

1) The referendum stole the vote of those who thought Brexit would be with a deal.
2) I want the UK out of the EU for political reasons.
3) If I were a British I wouldn't vote to leave for financial reasons.
4)I strongly beleive that Brexit without a deal will be damaging to the British people, while Brexit with a deal will be damaging too but not to the same degree.

I am a Cypriot who never even lived in the UK for more than a few hours waiting for a transit plane in Heathrow.
I don't read British newspapers and don't really follow the news of what's going on in the UK. Therefore I don't consider myself as any consumer of lies. When there's a reference to something I always try to find the original document rather than beleiving the newspapers.
I did try to find the law proposed by Hilary Ben for example. I did the same with the current document from KPMG as well as other older ones.

I knew from memory that KPMG old report was saying something about 9% drop in GDP in the long run and I honestly thought if it were so then the first year it should have been twice as much. I had to read the documents again after your objection just to realize where exactly I was wrong. In short the GDP drop is a year by year repeated event. 1.5% for 3 years would end up to 4.5%, or to 9% if it got repeated for 6 years.
However as I already told Paphitis is not only the GDP that matters. After all what's the GDP, people will continue to work, continue receiving about the same salaries so the GDP is not expected to change by much.
What matters is the GDP drop+devaluation of currency+higher prices for imports.
All of them together will certainly make the British people poorer after Brexit with no deal.
Of course this is not going to affect the elites. It will affect the pensioners, and the lower classes.

I will continue to support those positions simply because that's what I beleive.
As a Cypriot I wouldn't just feel proud getting out of the control of unelected EU bureaucrats and getting "my Country back"
The local ones are worse. Most of the things that affect our everyday lives locally are not even governed by laws.
It's just Ministers and various unelected officials taking decisions..
What law was there for placing those bomb containers at Mari for example?
Similarly your governing system in the UK looks to me too much of Medieval and backwards.
I can accept Nationalistic feelings for "getting your country back", but we all know that feelings often lack reasoning. :wink:
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Re: what next?

Postby Londonrake » Fri Sep 20, 2019 2:04 pm

Erolz

Like the referendum, it’s really very simple. Although, for some reason simplicity never seems to appeal to you.

Parliament has voted to stop Brexit. Or at least further delay it (but stop is the ultimate desired destination).

May’s deal was voted down.

The EU have been insisting that they won’t reopen the WA.

Ipso facto, currently there’s no obvious road that can lead to leaving. It’s a Catch 22.

Look Erolz, we’ve been here before. You want to “debate” endlessly, with reams of posts. You seem to feel you’re in some way proving something. No doubt it makes you feel better and gives you belief that your unwillingness to accept a simple majority in a national democratic vote is justified. Moreover, demonstrating that you are in fact a “Democrat”. It doesn’t - and you’re certainly not.

Last time IIRC, people just gave up on you - exasperated.

Wake me up after the General Election. Well, if they ever decide to let us have one that is. :wink:
Last edited by Londonrake on Fri Sep 20, 2019 2:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: what next?

Postby erolz66 » Fri Sep 20, 2019 2:05 pm

You can believe there is no material difference between leaving without an overall agreement with the EU and a transition period and leaving with such if you like. I personally prefer to try and stay more tethered to reality if I can.
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Re: what next?

Postby Londonrake » Fri Sep 20, 2019 2:07 pm

erolz66 wrote:You can believe there is no material difference between leaving without an overall agreement with the EU and a transition period and leaving with such if you like. I personally prefer to try and stay more tethered to reality if I can.


Good on you. :wink:
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Re: what next?

Postby erolz66 » Fri Sep 20, 2019 2:12 pm

Londonrake wrote:Look Erolz, we’ve been here before. You want to “debate” endlessly, with reams of posts.


If any comparison were made of the frequency and or length of my posts on brexit vs your own, I think you may need to look in the mirror as much as at me.

Londonrake wrote:You seem to feel you’re in some way proving something. No doubt it makes you feel better


And when you post you do not think you are in some way proving something ?

Londonrake wrote:and gives you belief that your unwillingness to accept a simple majority in a national democratic vote is justified. Moreover, demonstrating that you are in fact a “Democrat”. It doesn’t - and you’re certainly not.


My position really is very simple. The decision to leave or stay should be democratically valid and the way we leave should also be democratically valid. That is it.

Londonrake wrote:Last time IIRC, people just gave up on you - exasperated.


It always amazes me when people speak with certainty as to what other people feel or think but does not surprise me that one individuals opinion as to what 'everyone else' thinks, when expressed, always matches the view of the individual claiming to know what everyone else thinks or knows'

Wake me up after the General Election. Well, if they ever decide to let us have one that is. :wink:[/quote]
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Re: what next?

Postby Cp279 » Fri Sep 20, 2019 3:03 pm

However as I already told Paphitis is not only the GDP that matters. After all what's the GDP, people will continue to work, continue receiving about the same salaries so the GDP is not expected to change by much.

GDP can be calculated using 1) Income approach 2) Expenditure approach. You are saying people will continue receiving about the same salaries. However, salaries as part of national income is strongly tied up with production, that is, if this latter falters, so will the salaries. And a decrease in salaries entails less spending and less spending will further depress production.It is a kind of vicious circle..


What matters is the GDP drop+devaluation of currency+higher prices for imports.
All of them together will certainly make the British people poorer after Brexit with no deal.
Of course this is not going to affect the elites. It will affect the pensioners, and the lower classes.

Well, again, a devaluation of currency ( I guess depreciation is the more appropriate term to use here since UK FX regime is supposed to be floating regime) might also have favorable effect on current account.Everything depends on UK's trade elasticity.
I am not trying to contradict anyone here , just simply trying see the loose ends. Still, I can't understand how a word-class economy like UK ( Britain produced the best economists in the world) could wander into Brexitland without any preliminary measures, this is a big dark spot for me. One last issue, how financial city of London will be affected ? Will it be completely overwhelmed by either Paris or Frankfurt ?
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Re: what next?

Postby Paphitis » Fri Sep 20, 2019 3:13 pm

Pyrpolizer wrote:
Paphitis wrote:
What it proves is that you had a major meltdown. A 45% collapse from 2008 is an unprecedented collapse comparable only to Iceland, Argentina, Zimbabwe and maybe some other African tinpots. You are a member of the EU and according to your link to had a 40% drop from 2008 till 2015.

Are you kidding. You couldn't even write about it. This is a calamity. This is a disaster. And it all happened under the ECB's watch.

But you said it was your fault.

OK then, but again I ask you what about Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland. they had a big fall as well. Not as big as Greece and Cyprus but their GDP did still reduce by significant amounts.

Eat your heart out Zimbabwe.

Once again, I wouldn't worry about any KPMG predictions. They have interests for Britain to stay in the EU.

If there is a trade deal there will be no reduction at all for anyone and therefore no GDP drop attributable to Brexit. And this is what is most likely to occur because the Germans are not exactly going to kiss many tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs good bye which will also potentially slide them into deep recession.

Britain is not Cyprus or Greece. It has many friends and it produces a lot within its economy. Tgheir economy is broad and they will trade their way out of anything over the next 5 to 10 years.


You just proved once again you are just a "kistimeno" little child who in the absence of any arguments starts hitting below the belt, reverting to his favorite target, Cyprus. Fyi, he have doubled our GDP from 2000 to 2008 and whereas from 2004 (when we joined the EU) to 2008 we had an equal 45% increase to what we lost from 2008 to 2015. Big booms big recessions nothing unusual. We ended up in 2016 at a bit higher level than in 2004 which is quite normal.

I have already replied to you about Spain Italy Portugal etc. but it seems you didn't understand one iota. Go on try to drag me to endless discussions on those.... :lol:

Back to Brexit now: You have to read KPMG's full report. Even with a deal there will be a GDP drop both in the shortrun and the long run. But it will be about half the drop of Brexit with no deal.
The point however is not the GDP drop alone. It's the GDP drop + the devaluation of the currency + higher prices of imported products that might end up making the British people poorer by as much as 5-10% in just one year. :mrgreen:


I don't think you understand how GDP works.

Australia has never had a decrease in GDP for the last 36 years. They came close recently where they only added 0.4% in a qaurter but then accelerated again. But they are flatlining and they think that is a disaster.

You can double your GDP but when you lose 40% (you came up with that figure not me) in a few years, then that is more than a recession. That it a total meltdown and collapse. You needed a bail out. Your Banks when under. People had their deposits taken away from them above 100K

Doubling GDP from 2000 to 2008 is just a standard thing and the big economies did even better than double their economy but they didn't retract by 26% over the next 6 year of the GFC. They slowed down. Some even slipped into a recession and lost maybe a few percent but not 26%. Others just slowed down but kept growing.

Cyprus is not my favorite example. I am just using Cyprus and Greece as an example because as EU members they had a massive collapse from within the Eurozone. But not only them. You said it was their fault. I actually place a lot of the blame on the Eurozone for deepening the collapse in Greece and Cyprus and making it 10 times worse than it had to be. And of course they were not the only EU members to go backwards by a significant amount - Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland were hit hard as well.

Your GDP back in 2008 was larger still than the GDP of Cyprus in 2019. You are only just about to break even after 12 years.

Your GDP in 2009 was 25.94 Billion. In 2015 your GDP was 19.68 Billion (that is a 26% reduction from 2009). And in 2019, your GDP was 24.47 Billion which is still less than what it was in 2009. This isn't just a recession. It's a total calamity.

I can see that Maths wasn't your strong point.

And yet you spout your project fear about BREXIT! :lol: :lol: :lol:

https://tradingeconomics.com/cyprus/gdp
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Re: what next?

Postby cyprusgrump » Fri Sep 20, 2019 3:22 pm

erolz66 wrote:My position really is very simple. The decision to leave or stay should be democratically valid and the way we leave should also be democratically valid. That is it.



It was and it was, I'm not sure why you (or all the other Remoaners) struggle with it... :roll:
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