Cyprus-Forum.com

[erolz66]

That is the very point you are arguing about!

The CFR is telling us how deadly the virus is - how many people that get it die.

You can't exclude people that get it but have little to no symptoms! You may just as well count the deaths column and state that the CFR is 100%!

You people are mental. Case fatality rate is

is the proportion of deaths from a certain disease compared to the total number of people diagnosed with the disease

By definition if someone is asymptomatic, has mild symptoms then they are NOT counted in CFR calculations because they will not have been diagnosed as having the disease.

Infection fatality rate is

The term infection fatality rate (IFR) also applies to infectious disease outbreaks, and represents the proportion of deaths among all the infected individuals. It is closely related to the CFR, but attempts to additionally account for all asymptomatic and undiagnosed infections

2 months in and you are still confusing the two CG. Great critical thinking skillz

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate

FWIW I do not believe it is beyond your mental abilities to be able understand the difference between CFR and IFR. There is something else going on here imo. I think you want and need confusion so that you can continue to believe what you want to believe even when hard evidence indicates that the situation is not as you chose at the start of all this.

[cyprusgrump]

FWIW I do not believe it is beyond your mental abilities to be able understand the difference between CFR and IFR. There is something else going on here imo. I think you want and need confusion so that you can continue to believe what you want to believe even when hard evidence indicates that the situation is not as you chose at the start of all this.

My only agenda from the start of this was to argue that the disease isn't as deadly as claimed and Lockdown therefore unjustified.

If I have used the wrong acronym as part of that argument then so be it - apologies if any are necessary.

The fact remains though that the number of World-wide fatalities are small (still under 500,000) and there is little to no evidence that Lockdown has made a difference while the effects of Lockdown are likely to be devastating.

Clear?

[erolz66]

FWIW I do not believe it is beyond your mental abilities to be able understand the difference between CFR and IFR. There is something else going on here imo. I think you want and need confusion so that you can continue to believe what you want to believe even when hard evidence indicates that the situation is not as you chose at the start of all this.

My only agenda from the start of this was to argue that the disease isn't as deadly as claimed and Lockdown therefore unjustified.

If I have used the wrong acronym as part of that argument then so be it - apologies if any are necessary.

The fact remains though that the number of World-wide fatalities are small (still under 500,000) and there is little to no evidence that Lockdown has made a difference while the effects of Lockdown are likely to be devastating.

Clear?

My only agenda has been to seek the best understanding I can and to be led by the simplest clearest numbers we do have as we have them. 4 weeks ago I did not know if the scale of this event was comparable to regular flu spikes seen every 5 to 10 years or more akin to once in a lifetime / 50 years or 100 year events. As far as the UK goes this it is now known that the scale of the event is a once every 50 years or 100 years. We know this because total deaths all causes in the early weeks are higher than anything for at least 50 years and the number of weeks the spike is spread over is longer than anything seen for at least 50 years. These are know facts that do not require any experts, estimates, extrapolations, guesses, modelling or anything else. Nor do I think the argument that 'but some of these excess deaths will not be from covid-19, they will be from the effects of the lockdown or media hype' makes any difference in measuring the scale of the current event vs previous ones. There will be some deaths from such ancillary causes but this is true of any of the previous peaks you compare with and the effect of this ancillary things are more likely to manifest in later weeks of the outbreak not early ones, where the greatest excess deaths spikes have already been seen. Excess suicide are not an explanation of sufficient scale, as they would have to be 10 times normally weekly average to even be able to explain 1/3rd of excess deaths that are not yet attributed to covid-19 (appear on death certificate). What is more good solid non guess credible evidence from places like Japan have shown a marked reduction in deaths from suicide in the early weeks. 30 % decline for figures till end of April. People delaying and not seeking treatment will account for some of the excess deaths but if this is a significant factor it is one that is dependent on personal choice and not a function of lockdown. We know this because there is no difference in the scale of excess deaths in Sweden that are not attributed to covid-19 as there are in the UK. These kinds of deaths are also likely to show in later weeks not earlier ones. If you put off going for a cancer check and that leads to you dying of cancer, this does not happen ins a week or two. It happens over months if not a years. Lastly the simplest and there fore most likely significant factor as to why the total excess deaths is higher than deaths attributed to covid-19 (on death certificate) is that deaths that are from covid-19 or where covid-19 was a significant factor is shortening lifespans are actually being under reported. This theory has 'Occam's razor' support - it is the simplest and it has growing evidence from studies being done. Despite much media hype , much of it via viral SM memes, of mass systematic over attributing covid-19 as a factor in deaths there is increasing evidence, from serious study and analysis, of there being systematic under reporting.

It is just a fact that using the most simple and unarguable figures alone and nothing else, that are directly comparable to previous events, this event is NOT of a scale similar to regular flu outbreaks every 5-10 years. It is of a scale of once every 50 or 100 year events. This is what we KNOW already in places like England and Wales. It is not opinion. It is just plain fact. That some still try and deny this is to me quite stunning and can only be explained by a serious level of confirmation bias as far as I am concerned. I can see no other logic explanation for this continued denial in the face of the simple count of how many people died in a week.

Clear ?

[cyprusgrump]

FWIW I do not believe it is beyond your mental abilities to be able understand the difference between CFR and IFR. There is something else going on here imo. I think you want and need confusion so that you can continue to believe what you want to believe even when hard evidence indicates that the situation is not as you chose at the start of all this.

My only agenda from the start of this was to argue that the disease isn't as deadly as claimed and Lockdown therefore unjustified.

If I have used the wrong acronym as part of that argument then so be it - apologies if any are necessary.

The fact remains though that the number of World-wide fatalities are small (still under 500,000) and there is little to no evidence that Lockdown has made a difference while the effects of Lockdown are likely to be devastating.

Clear?

My only agenda has been to seek the best understanding I can and to be led by the simplest clearest numbers we do have as we have them. 4 weeks ago I did not know if the scale of this event was comparable to regular flu spikes seen every 5 to 10 years or more akin to once in a lifetime / 50 years or 100 year events. As far as the UK goes this it is now known that the scale of the event is a once every 50 years or 100 years. We know this because total deaths all causes in the early weeks are higher than anything for at least 50 years and the number of weeks the spike is spread over is longer than anything seen for at least 50 years. These are know facts that do not require any experts, estimates, extrapolations, guesses, modelling or anything else. Nor do I think the argument that 'but some of these excess deaths will not be from covid-19, they will be from the effects of the lockdown or media hype' makes any difference in measuring the scale of the current event vs previous ones. There will be some deaths from such ancillary causes but this is true of any of the previous peaks you compare with and the effect of this ancillary things are more likely to manifest in later weeks of the outbreak not early ones, where the greatest excess deaths spikes have already been seen. Excess suicide are not an explanation of sufficient scale, as they would have to be 10 times normally weekly average to even be able to explain 1/3rd of excess deaths that are not yet attributed to covid-19 (appear on death certificate). What is more good solid non guess credible evidence from places like Japan have shown a marked reduction in deaths from suicide in the early weeks. 30 % decline for figures till end of April. People delaying and not seeking treatment will account for some of the excess deaths but if this is a significant factor it is one that is dependent on personal choice and not a function of lockdown. We know this because there is no difference in the scale of excess deaths in Sweden that are not attributed to covid-19 as there are in the UK. These kinds of deaths are also likely to show in later weeks not earlier ones. If you put off going for a cancer check and that leads to you dying of cancer, this does not happen ins a week or two. It happens over months if not a years. Lastly the simplest and there fore most likely significant factor as to why the total excess deaths is higher than deaths attributed to covid-19 (on death certificate) is that deaths that are from covid-19 or where covid-19 was a significant factor is shortening lifespans are actually being under reported. This theory has 'Occam's razor' support - it is the simplest and it has growing evidence from studies being done. Despite much media hype , much of it via viral SM memes, of mass systematic over attributing covid-19 as a factor in deaths there is increasing evidence, from serious study and analysis, of there being systematic under reporting.

It is just a fact that using the most simple and unarguable figures alone and nothing else, that are directly comparable to previous events, this event is NOT of a scale similar to regular flu outbreaks every 5-10 years. It is of a scale of once every 50 or 100 year events. This is what we KNOW already in places like England and Wales. It is not opinion. It is just plain fact. That some still try and deny this is to me quite stunning and can only be explained by a serious level of confirmation bias as far as I am concerned. I can see no other logic explanation for this continued denial in the face of the simple count of how many people died in a week.

Clear ?

Heard it all before ErLolz, you are like a stuck record TBH...

Unfortunately your 'holier than thou' attitude doesn't hold much water when you are prepared to cling to one weeks worth of figures from Sweden because it suits your argument...

At the end of the day we'll have to wait and see if the experts that are predicting the end of the crisis is upon us or your Doomsday scenarios are correct.

[erolz66]

Heard it all before ErLolz, you are like a stuck record TBH...

But not you with your constant quoting of the global figures that just continue to go up and up and up ? No stuck record there then ? What were you saying about googling the meaning of 'hypocrisy' ?

Unfortunately your 'holier than thou' attitude doesn't hold much water when you are prepared to cling to one weeks worth of figures from Sweden because it suits your argument...

I am not clinging to anything. I pointed out the fact that the latest figures indicate a trend that is against your claims. I predict IF the trend continues you will just do what you did re the ONS figures when they went from showing what you wanted to not showing what you wanted. You will just go from shouting about them to ignoring them. If this trend does not continue it still does not prove that lock down in the UK was a bad call. I still have not said that I know that Sweden's approach will turn out to be net better or worse than if they had imposed more sever lock down measures. I just keep repeating in the face of your claims that you DO know, that such certainty is not the product of dispassionate analysis of the hard evidence we do have.

At the end of the day we'll have to wait and see if the experts that are predicting the end of the crisis is upon us or your Doomsday scenarios are correct.

I have made no predictions, doomsday or otherwise. I have just stuck to interpreting the simple , understandable, unarguable fact numbers we do have. I have question the certainty of YOUR predictions because they are predictions of things that we do NOT have hard simple data in support of. My predictions can not be proven wrong over time because I made no such predictions. That you imagine I have made such predictions is just yet more evidence of you simply seeing what you want to see regardless of actual reality. I would challenge you to show even one doomsday predication I have made but you will not because you can not, just like all the previous allegations you have made and then failed to back up with even a single example.

[Londonrake]

You take the time to accuse me of having to 'win'. No comment on Paphitis in these terms. Kind of shows YOUR bias do you not think ?

Popcorn shortage.

I quite like Paphitis. Let's face it, most of us in here are has-beens and are generally nowadays happily retired non-entities. He's got a life though. Quite an interesting one really. Moreover, he has major events going on in it - outside of pandemics that is . We also have a little in common in that I've been involved with the RAAF in the past and have had an aviation career of my own. Long gone. Having said that I don't believe I've done much in the way of rushing to support his views in here. I imagine you could trawl back over the past 4 years - the way you do - and "prove me wrong" on that one with an example. Fundamentally though, he speaks for himself. So - no - I don't believe I've been guilty of some sort of hypocrisy wrt Paphitis.

In a similar vein I don't criticise you that much.

What happened yesterday attracted my ire. The essence of the lockdown/no lockdown discussion at that point was the example of Sweden, which hasn't instigated a formal lockdown regime. It was argued that the result demonstrated the futility of having one. You then posted something which was clearly designed to give the impression that the country was the worst place on the planet for C-19 deaths. That was simply not true. You'd taken a week's figures and used them in what I regarded as a duplicitous manner. CG was right, there are countries, even in Europe, with worse records. Countries which have instigated lockdowns.

We have had our lockdown. The economic and social fallout will clearly be substantial, globally. I can't see it happening again, whatever. So, I'm personally pretty indifferent on the subject. Then again, being comfortably retired and living in paradise I can afford to be. For my kids, who have to pay bills (including mortgages) and put food on their family tables it's a different matter.

Just wanted to clear that up. Well, hopefully.

Ahhhh! Chomp, chomp, chomp.

[erolz66]

What happened yesterday attracted my ire. The essence of the lockdown/no lockdown discussion at that point was the example of Sweden, which hasn't instigated a formal lockdown regime. It was argued that the result demonstrated the futility of having one. You then posted something which was clearly designed to give the impression that the country was the worst place on the planet for C-19 deaths. That was simply not true. You'd taken a week's figures and used them in what I regarded as a duplicitous manner. CG was right, there are countries, even in Europe, with worse records. Countries which have instigated lockdowns.

Yes I should have made it clear I was talking about the most recent week. I made that clear with the links when challenged. You jump on the discrepancy but it was not duplicitous. It was fact , lazily expressed and quickly clarified. So if there is going to be a difference in deaths per head of population between UK and Sweden re different approaches to lock down, when do you think that might show up in the numbers ? From the minute that lock down was applied in the UK or do you think there might be some lag ? I think lag myself. I did not cherry pick a specific week, I took the latest week that MAY be indicative of difference starting to show after a lag in terms of implementation of lock down and it being seen in the deaths per head numbers. I am not saying this is certain yet but there WAS a change in the latest figures, before that the UK was leading Sweden, in totals to date AND in weekly periods and from the latest figures and time period is now trailing Sweden. Something changed with the latest figures. Am I not allowed to talk about this or make this point because total figures to date has not yet shown this ?

Just wanted to clear that up. Well, hopefully.

[Cap]

Anyway.

Cyprus records no new cases for the first time since March 9
No deaths in over a week.

https://cyprus-mail.com/2020/05/23/coro ... I3TsKl9IfI

[erolz66]

Fundamentally though, he speaks for himself. So - no - I don't believe I've been guilty of some sort of hypocrisy wrt Paphitis.

You called me out for not being able to admit I am wrong. On this metric by any reasonable judgement I have shown by action more ability to admit I am wrong when I clearly am to a degree that is massively greater than that shown by Paphitis. You called me out but not him. Hypocrisy in my book. Your problem was not really my behaviour per se. Your problem is you do not like me so you call me out for things I do not do anywhere near as much as people you do like who do the same thing to a vastly greater degree. Which is all fine but do not pretend that your calling out was disconnected to you not liking me and was some sort of 'objective' complaint. You are not fooling me and I doubt many other either. Your calling me out says as much about your prejudices as it says anything about me imo.

[erolz66]

Anyway.

Cyprus records no new cases for the first time since March 9
No deaths in over a week.

https://cyprus-mail.com/2020/05/23/coro ... I3TsKl9IfI

Over a month here with no new positives as well.