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Turkey is bankrupt

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Re: Turkey is bankrupt

Postby Maximus » Fri Aug 28, 2020 12:57 am

One Turkish Lira buys you 10 (single) Rizla rolling papers in Europe.

I will just leave this here.
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Re: Turkey is bankrupt

Postby Maximus » Fri Aug 28, 2020 1:11 am

News is doing the rounds on social media that a well-known private beach in Turkey was charging TL 370 (around $53) for one portion of doner meat and TL 185 (around $27) for a common pride or stuffed pitta bread to tourists.

https://www.dailysabah.com/turkey/turki ... -cash/news

There is no such thing as a cheap holiday in Turkey when inflation and a revenue shortfall from the corona virus pandemic is forcing vendors to price gauge whatever tourists do visit. The mayor of the city defended the practice, saying the city relies on tourism and is “responsible for taking whatever it can from the pockets of tourists to the last penny.”

With an attitude like this, being desperate too, it looks like the Turks will eventually kill off whatever tourism revenue the corona virus didnt.
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Re: Turkey is bankrupt

Postby Maximus » Sat Aug 29, 2020 7:17 pm

Turkeys external debt is rolling at 60% of GDP for the next 12 months with GDP also expected to fall as the economy shrinks.

in other words, the majority of what Turkey earns annually is required to pay for its external debts.

The central bank is trying to do what it can, without raising interest rates so banks have been lumbered with the burden of increasing liquidity by raising interest rates on loans. But the credit driven economy is giving way as consumer are increasingly being saddled with more debt.

Al-monitor says that the country will have to consider selling the "family silver" to try make ends meet.

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origin ... -next.html
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Re: Turkey is bankrupt

Postby Maximus » Wed Sep 02, 2020 2:52 pm

Fitch, the ratings agency, downgraded 20 Turkish banks to below investment grade today.

This is indicative of the negative long term outlook for Turkey's economy,

The probability of the country and the banks to repay their debt is very low.
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Re: Turkey is bankrupt

Postby Maximus » Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:40 am

The Turkish lira has made a new all time low versus the USD today.

7.50 to the Lira is in sight.

The Euro is lagging, no new all time low yet but it will probably catch up.
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Re: Turkey is bankrupt

Postby Kikapu » Thu Sep 03, 2020 1:49 pm

Maximus wrote:The Turkish lira has made a new all time low versus the USD today.

7.50 to the Lira is in sight.

The Euro is lagging, no new all time low yet but it will probably catch up.


The USD has made a slight gains, which reflects in the Turkish Lira. Should the USD return to it’s place where it was few months ago, the TL will be 1USD = 8TL

That is just one of TL’s problems, the currency exchange fluctuations. The others are the constant devaluation of the Turkish currency each year due to economic circumstances in Turkey from high unemployment numbers, high inflation, creative interest rates which does not reflect reality, current accounts, corruption, wars, and last but not least, getting kicked in the teeth by the EU because Turkey can never become an EU member state under the present political and economic condition.

Other than those factors, the TL is a “must have” currency! :wink:
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Re: Turkey is bankrupt

Postby Maximus » Thu Sep 03, 2020 2:31 pm

Yeah,

Seriously, Turkey needs to do a u-turn otherwise its curtains.

Turks need to give Endorgan the boot, stop the military adventures, resolve all problems with neighbors and commit to the rule of law and friendly relations, start cooperating instead of acting as adversary, raise interest rates massively, then commit to some painful austerity for a few years,

This is just to start and that might or might not be enough.
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Re: Turkey is bankrupt

Postby Maximus » Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:40 am

Maximus wrote:The Turkish lira has made a new all time low versus the USD today.

7.50 to the Lira is in sight.

The Euro is lagging, no new all time low yet but it will probably catch up.


The Lira hit 7.55 to the USD today.

It is making fresh lows almost daily this month,

The regime in Ankara cant stop the bleeding.

They are just good at making matters worse.

Where to next? If the EU imposes sanctions in a weeks time, 7.75 - 8 to the dollar is in sight.
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Re: Turkey is bankrupt

Postby repulsewarrior » Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:21 pm

...cynics speak,

https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-in ... 1600378629

...if you are a savvy investor there is still a lot of money to be made; timing is everything.
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Re: Turkey is bankrupt

Postby repulsewarrior » Tue Sep 29, 2020 5:23 am

...a zombie economy,

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origin ... float.html

...how far can this go?
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