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What are the chances of a regional war?

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What are the chances of a regional war?

Postby Sotos » Wed Sep 30, 2020 12:39 am

Seems like Erdogan is trying to mess with everybody at the same time. Cyprus, Greece, Armenia, Syria, Iraq, directly, and then by extension Russia, France, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Israel. He also messed Turkey's relations with USA, and then there are the Kurds within Turkey. Meanwhile the economy of his country is going from bad to worst.

I guess he thinks he can balance everything "just right" and come out of it with gains. I am sure he has a plan. So the question is: Should we act predictably and do what Erdogan expects us to do, or is this maybe a good time for Cyprus/Greece to be getting ready for something that Erdogan doesn't expect?

As a small country Cyprus can never defeat Turkey on its own. But I think Erdogan has made a mistake on opening too many fronts. Especially challenging Russia, now with a 3rd proxy war, this one right on Russia's border, is very risky for Turkey. He probably counts on NATO as a deterrent, but maybe that is where Greece can play a role, as NATO wouldn't help Turkey, if Turkey was also in war with Greece.


https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origin ... syria.html
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20200 ... in-turkey/
https://in-cyprus.philenews.com/un-spok ... c-actions/
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Re: What are the chances of a regional war?

Postby Get Real! » Wed Sep 30, 2020 1:00 am

There’s no doubt that Erdo has lost his mind… perhaps realizing he is getting old and tired and will somehow be replaced soon, he seems to want to leave a “mark” before he goes.

He seems desperate for some smaller country he is comfortable with, to take his bait and engage Turkey in a war and no doubt many of his daft compatriots will be cheering him on.

Of course, the more fronts he opens the worse it gets for his relationships with other countries and his economy; Turkey had a significant tourist industry now severely battered by Covid-19.

America and Europe are responsible for building this monstrosity we call Turkey so they are responsible for taking it down.

What’s delaying it is the fact that both giants have invested heavily in Turkey… from Trump’s towers to many EU factories taking advantage of cheap Turkish labour, but the more trouble he causes the more he helps them decide that their investments have gone to waste and its time to pull the plug on Turkey.

There’s no way of predicting what’s next when it comes to mad-man Erdo's moves but the more trouble he causes the better for his enemies who can’t wait to see Turkey ruined and dismantled.

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/tu ... 12524.html
https://journal-neo.org/2020/09/29/anti ... shrooming/
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/13 ... ip-Erdogan
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Re: What are the chances of a regional war?

Postby yialousa1971 » Wed Sep 30, 2020 3:23 am

The Turks have attacked so Armenia can activate article 4 of the CSTO!


Nagorno-Karabakh: Russia and Turkey will be at war, if Article 4 of CSTO is activated
By Boyko Nikolov On Sep 29, 2020
Share

ATHENS, (BM) – The situation in Nagorno Karabakh and the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan may soon change 180 degrees and things will end in a very short time, learned BulgarianMilitary.com.

Read more: BulgarianMilitary.com 24/7 – All about Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

It is about the Collective Security Treaty Organization [CSTO – ed.], in which Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are members. Like Article 5 of the NATO Collective Agreement, this organization also has an equivalent and it is enshrined in Art. 4 of the CSTO that the members of the organization must provide assistance if one of these members is territorially threatened by external military intervention.
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2020/09/2 ... activated/
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Re: What are the chances of a regional war?

Postby yialousa1971 » Wed Sep 30, 2020 4:38 am

Sotos wrote:Seems like Erdogan is trying to mess with everybody at the same time. Cyprus, Greece, Armenia, Syria, Iraq, directly, and then by extension Russia, France, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Israel. He also messed Turkey's relations with USA, and then there are the Kurds within Turkey. Meanwhile the economy of his country is going from bad to worst.

I guess he thinks he can balance everything "just right" and come out of it with gains. I am sure he has a plan. So the question is: Should we act predictably and do what Erdogan expects us to do, or is this maybe a good time for Cyprus/Greece to be getting ready for something that Erdogan doesn't expect?

As a small country Cyprus can never defeat Turkey on its own. But I think Erdogan has made a mistake on opening too many fronts. Especially challenging Russia, now with a 3rd proxy war, this one right on Russia's border, is very risky for Turkey. He probably counts on NATO as a deterrent, but maybe that is where Greece can play a role, as NATO wouldn't help Turkey, if Turkey was also in war with Greece.


https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origin ... syria.html
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20200 ... in-turkey/
https://in-cyprus.philenews.com/un-spok ... c-actions/


Don't forget Israel is supplying Azerbaijan with the latest weapons!


Jerusalem Post Israel News
Armenian FM to ‘Post’: Israel needs to halt all weapon sales to Azerbaijan
Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan says: ‘Israel should stop this deadly business with Azerbaijan.’
By YAAKOV KATZ JULY 29, 2020 17:04

Israeli weapons sold to Azerbaijan are used to target Armenian civilian infrastructure, and arms sales between the countries should be stopped immediately, Armenian Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan has told The Jerusalem Post.
In an interview in the midst of the ongoing conflict with Azerbaijan, Mnatsakanyan said that while Israeli-Armenian relations have improved in recent years – the Armenian president visited Israel in January – Israel’s continued supply of advanced weaponry to Azerbaijan remains an outstanding issue for the countries.

Azerbaijan is a known close ally of Israel, supplies Israel with about 40% of its oil needs and is a longtime customer of an assortment of Israeli defense companies, buying drones, missiles and other advanced weapon systems. In 2016, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev revealed that his country has signed $5 billion worth of long-term contracts over the years to buy weapons and security equipment from Israel.


https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/armen ... jan-636713
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Re: What are the chances of a regional war?

Postby Paphitis » Wed Sep 30, 2020 5:39 am

Yeh with patrol boats exactly the same as the one they supplied to Cyprus.

It’s no indication at all that Israel has sided with Azerbaijan as this weapons deal was done years ago.
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Re: What are the chances of a regional war?

Postby Cap » Wed Sep 30, 2020 6:19 pm

But I think Erdogan has made a mistake on opening too many fronts


My sentiments exactly.
If he dares, and he most probably will, the final front.
Only someone as stupid as Erdorunt can open another FRONT with zero economic benefits, only nationalistic bull**t for the sake of winning favor and votes.

When you're so called 'Tu**kish' and bankrupt and the value of your monopoly money is going down the drain.
You can count on Nationalist psycho dictators like Erdorunt and all those who failed before him.
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Re: What are the chances of a regional war?

Postby Kikapu » Wed Sep 30, 2020 6:54 pm

Sotos wrote:
As a small country Cyprus can never defeat Turkey on its own. But I think Erdogan has made a mistake on opening too many fronts. Especially challenging Russia, now with a 3rd proxy war, this one right on Russia's border, is very risky for Turkey. He probably counts on NATO as a deterrent, but maybe that is where Greece can play a role, as NATO wouldn't help Turkey, if Turkey was also in war with Greece.


NATO wouldn‘t help Turkey no matter what if Turkey tries to take on Russia, especially in Armenia, just like NATO hasn’t helped Turkey in Syria.
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Re: What are the chances of a regional war?

Postby Get Real! » Wed Sep 30, 2020 7:51 pm

Kikapu wrote:
Sotos wrote:
As a small country Cyprus can never defeat Turkey on its own. But I think Erdogan has made a mistake on opening too many fronts. Especially challenging Russia, now with a 3rd proxy war, this one right on Russia's border, is very risky for Turkey. He probably counts on NATO as a deterrent, but maybe that is where Greece can play a role, as NATO wouldn't help Turkey, if Turkey was also in war with Greece.

NATO wouldn‘t help Turkey no matter what if Turkey tries to take on Russia, especially in Armenia, just like NATO hasn’t helped Turkey in Syria.

And for as long as Putin rules over Russia we will never see them take on Turkey because Putin has proven on more than one occasion, to be a paper tooth tiger.

Russia needs new leadership... a strong nationalist, intolerant of any more insults from nobodies.
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Re: What are the chances of a regional war?

Postby repulsewarrior » Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:16 pm

...he is driving all his neigbours together, whether they are hostile to each other or not he has become a bigger threat to them.

...Cyprus, by default, is not alone. Erdogan lives in his "sweet isolation".

...he has established a "Brotherhood", it is "religious", and for a Caliphate in Istanbul, which in affect spans the globe, where Iran, and Pakistan, already play major roles.

...he has divided his own country, for "Turkishness", and it is closer to Civil War than its ever been before; given that confidence in the Economy is (also) unsustainable.

...what distraction has he to offer with Turkey's Centennial in two years? Peace? More war perhaps; define "regional".

@GR, Russia is not toothless. Turkish hostility, toward Armenia, for Russia and the EU, proves Erdogan to be disruptive, and more importantly to both, a hostile threat.

Indeed, in Armenia, Europe and Russia may be compelled to find common ground.
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Re: What are the chances of a regional war?

Postby Kikapu » Wed Sep 30, 2020 9:11 pm

Get Real! wrote:
Kikapu wrote:
Sotos wrote:
As a small country Cyprus can never defeat Turkey on its own. But I think Erdogan has made a mistake on opening too many fronts. Especially challenging Russia, now with a 3rd proxy war, this one right on Russia's border, is very risky for Turkey. He probably counts on NATO as a deterrent, but maybe that is where Greece can play a role, as NATO wouldn't help Turkey, if Turkey was also in war with Greece.

NATO wouldn‘t help Turkey no matter what if Turkey tries to take on Russia, especially in Armenia, just like NATO hasn’t helped Turkey in Syria.

And for as long as Putin rules over Russia we will never see them take on Turkey because Putin has proven on more than one occasion, to be a paper tooth tiger.

Russia needs new leadership... a strong nationalist, intolerant of any more insults from nobodies.


Only because Putin is a capitalist and making money left and right, so he doesn’t need a big war, and neither does Erdogan. They like proxy wars instead, giving support from the rear to the fighting fools.
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