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Election Results in Northern Ireland

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Election Results in Northern Ireland

Postby Lordo » Fri May 06, 2022 9:57 pm

These are most interesting. Clearly they have a very complicated system of many levels of choice. The first choice results look very interesting indeed.

Although the final seat totals won’t be known until later, the trend suggests a major shift in the region’s political balance.

The nationalist party, whose ultimate goal is a united Ireland, won 29% of first choice votes, overtaking the formerly dominant pro-British Democratic Unionist Party, which drew 21% in the election held on May 5.

It’s the first time a nationalist party has led results since the power-sharing government was established following the 1998 Good Friday agreement, which largely ended decades of violence between unionists and nationalists.

With 29 of 90 seats declared Friday, the former political wing of the Irish Republican Army has won 16, while the cross-community Alliance Party and DUP were tied on 4. The Ulster Unionist Party had 3 seats as of 8:15 p.m. in Belfast. The Alliance Party drew 13.5% of first preference votes while the UUP won 11.2%, the BBC reported.

A Sinn Fein win would come as a blow to unionism and to the U.K. Conservative government. The DUP has campaigned strongly against the Northern Irish Protocol -- the part of the Brexit agreement dealing with the region -- which Boris Johnson’s pro-unionist government wants to get re-written.

If Sinn Fein wins the largest number of seats, it will be eligible to choose the region’s first minister. While the positions of first and deputy first minister are equal, the symbolic difference of a nationalist holding the post would be huge.

A dominant Sinn Fein would also likely to encourage those who want to see a united Ireland both north and south of the border.

Northern Ireland’s assembly is elected using a system of Proportional Representation known as Single Transferable Vote. Voters can select from five candidates in order of preference. Seats are then awarded in proportion to the number of votes cast, with voters’ lower ranking preferences also taken into account.

Very interesting.
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Re: Election Results in Northern Ireland

Postby Londonrake » Sat May 07, 2022 8:20 am

The Unionists have been architects of their own demise and the eventual loss of their majority widely predicted for some time. That possibly via the weight of demographics alone.

NI is a bottomless pit of funding for the rest of the UK. Give that to the Republic, repatriate all the Public Sector jobs and see “The Troubles” become theirs. Which I suspect would be as bad, or even worse than the 70s. What’s not to like?

Then, move on to Scotland. Although, I think the Scottish electorate would be more savvy and probably vote for continuing to have their cake and eat it.
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Re: Election Results in Northern Ireland

Postby Lordo » Sat May 07, 2022 11:33 am

You seem to forget the Scots were told if they vote to leave, they will find themselves outside the EU when they had the referendum. When in fact by voting to stay they found themselves outside instead.
If the Scots decide to leave of course they will take the income from the resources from the North Sea with them so they will not do so badly especially in the EU.

When it comes to the NI, it is part of TGFA that they will have a referendum on both sides of the border. If people decide to join that is their right to do so.

The Unionists have finally woken up to the games BoZo is playing. He kept them quiet telling them that when the time comes he will implement Article 16 and tear up the Brexit agreement but you can see from miles away that he would not be able to do that. BoZo lied to them even before the vote telling them his agreement does not put the border in the Irish Sea despite his Brexit negotiator confirming it. This morning a Unionist claimed that EU is controlling NI when it is part of the UK. Hell where has he been since TGFA was signed? Was it not signed by the Unionists, Nationalists, Ireland and Britain?
As to public sector jobs situation will have to be sorted between themselves. Interesting that you view NI as a bottomless pit and yet there is Britain refusing to let go. It's a funny old game ain it.
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Re: Election Results in Northern Ireland

Postby Londonrake » Sat May 07, 2022 1:17 pm

Nobody wants to earn a place in history as the PM who oversaw a break up of the UK after so many years. No matter how sensible it might be.
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Re: Election Results in Northern Ireland

Postby Lordo » Sat May 07, 2022 1:59 pm

Londonrake wrote:Nobody wants to earn a place in history as the PM who oversaw a break up of the UK after so many years. No matter how sensible it might be.

And yet he signed the Brexit agreement knowing that the Northern Irish were no longer fully part of the UK and are likely to join the EU rather than UK after Brexit and knowing that the Scots signed up to stay in the EU when voting yes and once out of the EU they certainly would be heading for another referendum.

Perhaps BoZo is really as stupid as he looks and did not realise what he was doing.
What will really be interesting is what happens next. If the nationalists do win most seats will the Unionists accept it and allow them the First Minister role or will they spoil it and refuse to return to government.
Perhaps we will get the crunch point sooner than we realised.
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Re: Election Results in Northern Ireland

Postby Lordo » Sat May 07, 2022 8:59 pm

What a great electoral system in Northern Ireland. We should all have this. At least each party gets roughly the correct percentage of seats to the votes they got.

What happens when counting begins?
A quota is calculated for each constituency using a mathematical formula, based on the number of seats and the number of votes cast.
The first preference votes are all counted and any candidates who meet the quota are elected.
If a candidate has more votes than they need to meet the quota then their extra votes are transferred to other candidates - so the candidate marked "2" on those ballot papers gets those votes instead.
Meanwhile, the candidate with the fewest votes is knocked out and their second preferences are transferred to other candidates.

Not one vote is wasted this way. What a great system.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-61022550
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Re: Election Results in Northern Ireland

Postby Lordo » Sat May 07, 2022 9:06 pm

By the way history is made in Northern Ireland today. Sinn Féin has got the most seats. First time since Northern Ireland was set up. Ironically it was UUP and SDLP which lead the way and they have all but gone.
With two more seats left to declare:

SF 27, DUP 24, APNI 17, UUP 9, SDLP 7, OTH 4
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