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'Why won't Turkey become a full EU member before 2015?'

Benefits and problems from the EU membership.

Postby cannedmoose » Thu Apr 14, 2005 7:32 pm

brother wrote:Give me time i will find the ULTIMATE AVATAR....hahaha....hahahaha..... :lol: :lol: i think i am losing the plot. :? :shock:

I'm a bit worried by the posture of your current avatar, looks like it's doing something quite lewd... :lol:
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Postby brother » Fri Apr 15, 2005 10:41 am

ooopsss.....did not think you would notice that. :oops:
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Postby turkcyp » Tue Apr 19, 2005 6:25 pm

Europe’s Middle East adventure
15.12.2004 - 17:40 CET | By Andrew Beatty
EUOBSERVER / COMMENT - Turkey is not in Europe. Regardless of its ‘Europeanness’, geographically at least, a great deal of the country is most certainly not in Europe.

Of course, for the EU Turkey’s situ may well be less important than relative modernity, but in foreign policy at least, it does matter.

As any ad-man or Canadian diplomat will tell you, location matters.

Turkish membership would bring the Middle East, the Caucuses and Black Sea to Europe, it would also sharpen Europe’s focus on Central Asia and the Balkans.

The thought of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Iran, Iraq and Syria bordering the Union may scare the Merkels out of Germany’s Christian Democrats - but it does pose some difficult practical questions for the EU's embryonic common foreign policy not to mention border control.

Ankara’s neighbours do not exactly form a who’s who of stable, democratic and prosperous countries.

Of course, this is part of the attraction for Europe, as one commentator recently remarked, Turkey is "probably the most geo-strategically important piece of real estate in the world".

New leverage will be gleaned over Turkey’s traditional allies such as Azerbaijan, useful given the county’s resource wealth and signs that new leader Ilham Aliyev appears to be as reform-averse as his father.

Turkey’s importance as a transit for oil and gas pipelines is also not lost on EU members.

Bridging cultures
Many EU states, in particular the UK, hope Turkey’s membership will act as a bridge between the West and Muslim world. This can easily be overstated.

Turkey's relations with its neighbours have frequently been terrible, with many southern neighbours remembering the bad old days under the Ottomans - although this is changing.

Turkish diplomacy under the AK party, which took power in 2002, has become increasingly active and focused on the region, positioning Turkey as a major regional power.

Trade and political relations with Iran and Syria are growing steadily, offering the EU more levers in two of the unstable countries in an unstable region.

Although relations with Israel have soured somewhat this has also presented a boon, making relations with the Arab world easier.

Forward planning
But the regional situation in the ten years – a time span Turkey will no doubt need to complete membership talks – could be very different.

The future of Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Iran and the Levant are in question and events could have profound repercussions for Turkey.

In the last couple of decades Turkish policy makers have made a beeline for Europe, as the keystone of its foreign policy, but it is still interested in its own back yard - particularly Iraq.

The fallout from the Iraq war, no doubt, has to bring us some of Donald Rumsfeld’s known unknowns (and probably some unknown unknowns). The fate of Iraqi Kurdistan could prove pivotal in Turkey’s relations with the EU.

Even moderate conservatives would be likely to press for the army to insure the Turkomen minorities are protected in Iraq and, more importantly that a Kurdish state is not established which could destabilise Turkey's southeast.

If this looks like a possibility, it could be difficult for some of Turkey’s more zealous Kemalist generals to allow their hands to be tied by the European Union, especially if Turkish interests are being undermined by Iran, Syria and Israel, whose militaries have a virtual carte blanche.

If things go badly in Iraq, divergences between the Kemalist - secular establishment - and the Islamist-government could be further exposed, creating domestic crises and drawing the government to the 'right'.

Needless to say, any intervention by Turkey, which is still not ruled out by political and military leaders, would likely mean a halt to negotiations.

But Turkey’s strong army also offers its opportunities for the EU. A major player in NATO, Turkey’s accession would bring Europe military resources and knowledge akin to that of France or the UK.

On the flip side, it could also mean the EU importing another France or UK, making the already creaking EU Common Foreign and Security Policy all the more difficult.
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Postby unnamedman » Thu Apr 28, 2005 10:55 am

Cultural or Geographical?

I really don't care that if we can't join EU. There will be always a speciality of Turkey because of its geo-political status.
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Postby garbitsch » Thu Apr 28, 2005 2:22 pm

unnamedman wrote:Cultural or Geographical?

I really don't care that if we can't join EU. There will be always a speciality of Turkey because of its geo-political status.

Exactly. The EU will always prefer 70 million of Turks, to 700 thousand Greek Cypriots.
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Postby magikthrill » Thu Apr 28, 2005 7:37 pm

garbitsch wrote:
Exactly. The EU will always prefer 70 million of Turks, to 700 thousand Greek Cypriots.

Maybe but its 700 000 Cypriots that have been chosen by EU whereas 70 million of Turks are still in the dark...
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Postby turkcyp » Wed May 04, 2005 6:40 pm

I do not think Turkey can be a member AT ALL. I believe it is mutually beneficial t both EU and Turkey but I think people think with their hearts more than with their brains always, so common anti Turkish sentiment will prevail at the end of the day.

Not at this EU at least.

On the flip side, I do not see the EU exists in its current form for long anyway. EU will turn itself into tow regions. One central Europe where more integration and the idea of federal Europe has more support, most probably by countries like France, Germany, Benelux, Austria and may be Italy and Spain. Classical traits of these countries are their anti-Americanism, their social model, and their way of managing economy with huge state influence.

And an outer circle compromised of the countries which value their sovereignty and which does not want to be ruled by France and Germany, and the countries which are geographically distant and economically undeveloped compared to the central Europe. Most probably these will be countries like UK, Scandinavian countries, Ireland, Greece, Portugal and the recent new comers. Classical traits of these countries are their Atlanticist approach, their anglo-saxon model of economic development, and their distance from the core.

If Turkey makes it into EU, and that is a big IF, it will only be to this outer circle.
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Postby insan » Wed May 04, 2005 7:00 pm

Until the time comes for Tukey to enter EU, most probably there'll be no EU anyways... :lol:
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Postby gabaston » Wed May 04, 2005 8:31 pm

Never human rights

Wot about female sheep rights.

Has greece changed its law that it is illegal to _ _ _ _ a sheep, if it is male.

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Postby sk » Wed May 04, 2005 9:19 pm

actually the scandinavians are not very far from forming their own union.....(norway,iceland,sweden,denmark)....the only problem according to norway and denmark is swedens persistence in having into tis union finland.......denmark and norway believe that since finland has close ties to russia it has no place in the union.....also they consider sweden to be extremely tolerant with foreigners....these are the reasons why the havent agreed to form their union....if problems continue in eu,the pressure from denmark and norway to sweden to change its mind will grow and it will not be long before they will form their union and consequently the richest and wealthiest country in this world.
actually what will happen is that europe will be divided in regions according to language and religion !
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