Cyprus-Forum.com

[michalis5354]

Yes thats what I think as well. Eu membership is very important for Turkey and once this is secured then I expect further steps to be taken.

[Piratis]

By the way, Piratis, once again you point the finger at USA working for Turkey. Is it not possible that some contries might have their own reasons for acting as they do regarding this issue?

USA is working for Turkey. It is a simple fact that the US try hard to push Turkey into the EU, I don't think anybody can dispute this.

Of course some EU governments want Turkey in the EU, like UK for example. Other governments would prefer a "special relationship" with Turkey instead, and yet other governments would probably prefer if Turkey didn't get much closer to EU than it is now.

The point is that "some countries" are simply not enough to give Turkey what she needs. All countries are needed, and this is where the important role of the US kicks in.

By the way, I use the term "governments" and not countries, because the people of almost all EU countries either reject, or they are mostly skeptical about a Turkish membership.
If a pan-EU referendum was held to decide about Turkey then the result would be "no", there is no doubt about this.

[Piratis]

EU Sets Date for Turkey Talks, Demands Concession on Cyprus
Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- European Union leaders offered to start membership talks with Turkey next Oct. 3, as long as the Turkish government ends its diplomatic standoff with historic rival Cyprus.

EU governments gave no guarantee that the 10- to 15-year negotiating process -- designed to promote Turkish economic growth and build a bridge to the wider Muslim world -- would lead to full membership.

There is ``not a guarantee for the outcome,'' Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende told a news conference late yesterday after chairing an EU meeting in Brussels. European Commission President Jose Barroso said: ``This is an offer that Turkey should be glad to accept.''

Turkey, with 70 million people and economic output per capita of 28 percent the EU average, is counting on the entry process to boost investors' confidence, helping bring down unemployment and the costs of financing $220 billion in debt. Turkey will be required to embrace EU regulations on everything from food safety and rail freight to customs duties and budget management.

The talks won't start unless Turkey signs a protocol that extends an existing EU-Turkish trade agreement to Cyprus, one of 10 countries that joined the EU this year, said Lithuanian President Valdas Adamkus.

Cyprus

``Turkey has to commit itself to recognition before they could begin the negotiations,'' Adamkus told journalists. ``If by Oct. 3 there is no signature, the negotiations will not start.''

Turkey invaded Cyprus in 1974 and occupies the northern tier of the island. The southern, Greek republic joined the EU alone after rejecting a United Nations-sponsored unification plan that had the backing of the Turkish Cypriots.

Balkenende declined to outline the Cyprus conditions before presenting the EU offer to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan early this morning. Erdogan yesterday promised to work toward a settlement of the Cyprus question.

Erdogan had called full diplomatic recognition for Cyprus a ``red line'' that he wouldn't cross. Turkey's main opposition party is against recognition, as is the military, which has 30,000 troops in northern Cyprus.

``Mr. Erdogan told me that they decided to recognize Cyprus, but they need some time,'' Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said. ``We have fixed the date in order to give Turkey the necessary time to approve in its parliament the possibility of recognizing Cyprus.''

Stock Market

EU membership expectations boosted the Turkish stock market, which closed before the EU meeting. The benchmark stock index rose 2.8 percent yesterday, reaching a four-year high in dollar terms. The yield on the 19-month government bond fell 0.3 percentage point to 22.39 percent.

Still, that membership may come with strings attached, such as a permanent barrier on the migration of Turkish workers and limits on Turkey's share of EU farm support and regional- development subsidies.

Europe's embrace of Turkey was championed by U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder as a bulwark against tumult in the Middle East and the rise of Islamic radicalism.

Also endorsing Turkey's bid was the U.S., with Secretary of State Colin Powell using his farewell tour of Europe last week to urge the EU to welcome a country that is a NATO member and ally in the war against terrorism.

Strategic Ally

Turkey borders Iraq, Syria and Iran and its population is larger than the combined population of the 10 mainly Eastern European countries that joined the EU this year.

EU commission economists predict ``substantial'' costs of bringing in Turkey, which had unemployment of more than 10 percent at the end of 2003. Inflation topped 50 percent for 20 of the past 30 years.

By 2025 Turkey would swallow up EU farm and regional subsidies equal to 0.17 percent of annual European economic output, or about 16 billion euros ($20 billion) in today's terms, the commission said.

Turkey's on-again, off-again ties with the EU began with a 1963 trade accord that the EU suspended during subsequent bouts of military rule in Ankara. Turkey formally applied for membership in 1987, only to see the EU's priorities shift to Eastern Europe with the fall of the Iron Curtain two years later.

Relations bottomed in 1997 when the EU put arch-rival Cyprus and five Eastern countries on the fast track to membership, shutting the door to Turkey until it settled territorial disputes with EU member Greece and cleaned up its human-rights performance.

When the ex-Yugoslav wars of the 1990s climaxed with NATO's Kosovo campaign in 1999, the EU elevated stability on its southeastern flank to the top of the agenda and prodded Greece and Turkey to overcome their historic tensions. As a reward, Turkey was declared an EU ``candidate'' in 1999.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... fer=europe

[insan]

In my opinion, soon Turkey will take the initiative to solve the Cyprus problem before 3rd of October, although the new initiative should be taken by Greek side...

Turkey will not recognize RoC until a solution has been found.


I'm not sure what Turkey will offer to Greek side in order to satisfy them to reach a joint agreement but I don't expect that it would be something which would satisfy the Greek side.


Apparently; in October, most probably Turkey will show her red card both EU and Greek side...Thus, the only solution alternative will have been left to choose: Agreed Partition.

The END.

[pantelis]

Summary by Gunduz Aktan
I am writing this article not knowing how different the Dec. 17 European Union summit decision will be from the fourth version, but we can say the likely changes will be more in wording than in content as the EU’s attitude towards our membership appears inflexible.
It seems likely we will get a date to start negotiations at the summit in 2005 with the objective being full membership.

However, the start of the process doesn’t necessarily mean it will progress smoothly. Cyprus, the Aegean, minorities (Kurds and Alawis), the supposed Armenian “genocide” and restricted membership that doesn’t correspond with full membership puts the whole process in doubt.
Some may think all these obstacles will be overcome one by one, but all of them preventing progress at the same time should be seen as a possibility.

It is being said we cannot refuse Greek Cypriot demands to recognize them because “they will be a party as a EU member in the negotiations.” However, how can we refuse to withdraw our military forces from the island, and refrain from interfering in the domestic political structure and its constitutional order when we become the occupiers of the north of an EU member country? Greece failed to apply to the court to resolve the Aegean matter. Consequently, we won’t be able to declare a EU member that we will face at the negotiation table deciding to extend its continental shelf would be considered a casus belli. We will have to accept their demands and if the matter goes to court in The Hague, we will lose the Aegean entirely. It seems like the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK/Kongra-Gel) will continue to conduct terrorist acts perpetrated by Kurdish students at universities, rallies and through civil disobedience in order to establish an autonomous region in the Southeast. If the concept of minority, as defined in the progress report of Oct. 6, becomes a political condition we need to fulfill in the new Accession Partnership Document to be prepared in April 2005, it can be used to further autonomy demands.

French Foreign Minister Michel Barnier says he would present the recognition of the “Armenian tragedy” as a condition at the negotiation table. This means we will need to recognize the genocide allegations by the end of the negotiations.
The suspension of negotiations or issues that are backed with a veto threat and the sacrifices we need to make in order to appease will eventually result in chaotic public relations.

If Angela Merkel and Edmund Stoiber in Germany in 2006 and Nicholas Sarkozy in France in 2007 come to power and suspend the membership negotiations like they say they will, the process that will start after Dec. 17 will become meaningless.
Moreover, if the summit decision includes certain “derogations” in the freedom of movement, the agricultural sector and structural policies -- in other words the treatment accorded to Turkey differs from the fundamental values of the EU -- we will actually devolve into a privileged partnership. We will miss out on the main financial assistance accorded to member countries such as farming subsidies and structural funds. The people will naturally question the benefits of making so many sacrifices and what we are negotiating for.

The government did more than its share in satisfying the EU’s conditions and it issued the necessary warnings, but if the decision comes out as it is, it will become obvious the EU does not want us as members, or is not ready to accept us.

Under such conditions, the government may announce issues it cannot accept and reject the EU summit decision. This way, the EU may be forced to rethink its attitude that is limited, segregationist and prejudicial. Let’s not forget the fact that prejudicial actions are always followed by a deep regret. On the other hand, if we don’t become EU members, Greek Cypriots and Greeks will realize how much their excessive demands cost them.
Turkey can then prove that its democratic regime is strong enough to weather anything until the negotiations are restarted with a new set of rules.

Did Annan have anything to do with the EU proposals to Turkey?
The timing, the derogations, the exceptions, etc, remind me of "his" plan.
Am I imagining things?

[magikthrill]

An interesting part of all the articles regarding Turkey's green light to accession talks:
I have not found a single one that does not mention the Cyprus problem in any way. Has anyone found one that doesn't?

THe matter of the fact is that if Turkey recgonizes the RoC without forming a solution then it accepts the fact that it is illegally occypuing Cyprus, ie the European Union. Therefore, what will happen before 3 Oct, is still up in the air.

And as for the Greek side seeking a resolution, instead of Turkey I thought that this had already happened. Didn't Papadopoulos invite Erdogan a few weeks (maybe more) to come to Cyprus? I don't recall Erdogan accepting this invitation.

The solution to the CYprus problem will be determined by two factors: Turkey and the EU. Now only time will tell what type of "solution" will be formed.

[turkcyp]

What I know is that Turkey is supposed to expand the trade union with Cyprus by October. 3rd, something that is some form of de facto recognition, but not the official recognition we were asking for.

This is true. What EU asked Turkey is to extend the "Ankara Agreement", it has signed with EU long time ago (this agreement provides customs union with EU and Turkey since 1997 I believe) to the new members.

Turkey was very well aware of it and was making all the preperations for it. What it is basically is that RoC can start trading with Turkey, as an EU member, and some other trade benefits like RoC ships can use Turkeys harbours etc, etc.)

It is not recognition as you know it. And Turkey was already ready for it. I mean it would be stupid to be in customs union with EU for the last 8 years but not apply customs union to some of the EU countries. But it is not a political recognition per se.

What Papadapulos was trying to achive ( and we do not know yet if he has gotten what he want, we will wait till tomorrow and see the final text to find out) is to include phrases in the same sentence to ask Turkey to normalize relationships with RoC as two neighbouring countries, establishment of embassies, etc. etc.

May be he got what he want? we will wait and see?

Have a great day,

[brother]

Is it not true that a lot of E.U leaders are still peeved at tassos and his back stabbing them with the annan plan, hence i reckon the annan plan will rise from the grave twicked a little and then watch tassos go on t.v and tell you its the best thing since slice bread.

[Piratis]

Brother, what solution we will accept for our country is our problem, and our partners have to accept it, and they did.

The Annan plan was created to officially partition Cyprus and to make it easier for Turkey to enter the EU.

Turkey soon will realize that the times of Ottomans that they could move in and cut heads to impose their will is over. If they want to be part of the EU they will have to show full respect to all other member states including Cyprus.

The Annan plan is not going to be put in a referendum ever again. Turkey will have to make some choices. What is sure is that this time she will not be able to win everything at the same time.

[brother]

Lets see what happens whatever we say at the moment is pure speculation.