Pyrpolizer wrote:OK this is how I see things evolving:
If you are a government employee you will still be working at your old job but somehow they will tell you the name has changed. Some very few will be transfered at will to the Federal Department. The new thing in our lives will be the Feds, but it will take time to see them around and notice what they will be actually doing.
If you are working in the private sector, you will continue doing what you are already doing.Most probably there will be more job opportunities for the TCs, especially for those who have specialized experience in economics/banking/hotel management etc
In the first year the majority of refugees from both sides will try to do some arrangements with their properties according to what the agreement has been.I expect to see a lot of paperwork at government level and a lot of activity in property sales/exchanges etc. This is when imo they rich and the speculators will jump in and basically rob the poor.
I don't expect many people packing to move back to their original villages. The majority of movement will be in areas near to what today is the border line. The majority of people who will go settle deep into the other Fed state will be pensioners or expats.
The GC banks will certainly open 2-3 branches in the "new areas" mainly for serving their already existing TC clientele. Bussiness people will start cooperating mainly for making branches in the other side, but I don't think anyone will move his production fascilities or headquarters from where they are now.
The TC fed state will increase the number of tourists it gets but because the "hen that lays golden eggs" has already started dieing in Cyprus it is doubtful it can ever boost the economy as t going doing for the GCs in the past.
What we will all notice is people traveling all over Cyprus much much easier, without any need to have a new insurance or stop at checkpoints. Generally there will be GCs and TCs mixed everywhere you look.But they won't be residents.Just people on the move. Nicosia will be the most mixed town in this respect.
The new Government structure will be more expensive that the existing one.The GCs will not like it. The TCs will be shocked when they realize what it means to having your own pocket been taxed rather than the one of the mainland Turks. The TCs will be having their own area where they will concentrate and be administered and in the begining feel national pride that at last they got their "partition". The pride will soon erode when they will realize how much they have to pay for it. The GCs will be disapointed from the very begining as they will see that re-unification did not mean going back to before 1974. They ill be allowed to return of course but very few will. They will get their properties but they will not be able to make any use of them. In the end they will be thinking what have they gained other than an unecessary "bela".
I don't even expect the Famagustans to be happy returning to their ghost town. Most propably they ill have to wait for at least 5 years until the infrastucture is completed and God knows how many will abandon their existing places of living to ever return.
Generally within the first year I believe nothing much will change, and everybody will feel that they never expected the solution to be such a dull thing. I believe changes will come very very slowly and it will take at least 30 more years to have some New Cypriot sense for the people living here.
Thats a pretty 'grim' picture you paint Pyro. I for one would not mind having my home next to a GC (or vice versa). Saying kalimeras everymorning with a smile and expect the same. Having lived in the UK since 1964, next door to the dredges of society in some instances, and in some instances next to the nicest people , who happened to be GCs, I can do this in my HOME land - Cyprus. I would find it easy. Some, will not and it will take many years. As mentioned before, expats of both communities would be a good example to living in a mixed society. They have had the experience. I wonder what percentage of GC and TCs would like to return to their properties, if possible? (after restoration ofcourse) Admin and politics , I leave to experts to sort.
