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Egypt Coup a Strategic Loss to Turkey

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Re: Egypt Coup a Strategic Loss to Turkey

Postby Get Real! » Fri Jul 12, 2013 2:26 am

Demonax wrote:Er... Saudi Arabia is opposed to the Muslim Brotherhood, supports the new regime and has moved to finance it with quick offers of investment.

Saudi Arabia has only recently (1 or 2 months) split from supporting the Brotherhood along with Qatar, but they were doing so for years…

http://globalmbreport.com/?p=1186

http://www.thenation.com/blog/168871/sa ... es-missed#

http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=58685

http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/arti ... rotherhood

It's all backfiring on them so they're running around like headless chickens.


As for the Turkish loan to Egypt, here is more on the details of the complete package: 2 billion in total, around half of what Egypt was trying to raise from the IMF and which it couldn’t get:

Ok, so Turkey risks losing the 2-3 billion they've loaned the Brotherhood so far but it’s hardly a dent in their 950 odd billion GDP p/annum.
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Re: Egypt Coup a Strategic Loss to Turkey

Postby Demonax » Fri Jul 12, 2013 2:55 am

Get Real! wrote:Ok, so Turkey risks losing the 2-3 billion they've loaned the Brotherhood so far but it’s hardly a dent in their 950 odd billion GDP p/annum.


It's not just the investments. The Turks are rattled mainly because Egypt was supposed to be part of a 'new order' that Davutoglu was hoping to spearhead in the Middle East and North Africa. Of course it was typical Turkish fantasy. But they really were pushing Turkey as a model for Egypt and other Arab Spring countries. The opposite is now happening...
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Re: Egypt Coup a Strategic Loss to Turkey

Postby Tim Drayton » Fri Jul 12, 2013 11:01 am

Correction:

... a (huge) strategic loss for Turkey's current Islamist regime.
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Re: Egypt Coup a Strategic Loss to Turkey

Postby Demonax » Tue Jul 16, 2013 2:14 pm

Turkish foreign policy in crisis due to sectarian and Islamist policies of the AKP government:

Turkey, Lonely Man of the Middle East

Today, four years and three months after the appointment of Ahmet Davutoglu as Turkish foreign minister, Ankara's foreign policy faces an endemic crisis. The problem with the “new Turkish foreign policy,” managed by the duo of Davutoglu and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, goes beyond bad governance, incompetence and wrong-headed tactics. Had these features been the only issues, one would not label the current situation “endemic.” Rather, it is ideology that leads to it being an “endemic crisis”...

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origina ... -east.html
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Re: Egypt Coup a Strategic Loss to Turkey

Postby GreekIslandGirl » Tue Jul 16, 2013 2:36 pm

Demonax wrote:
Get Real! wrote:Ok, so Turkey risks losing the 2-3 billion they've loaned the Brotherhood so far but it’s hardly a dent in their 950 odd billion GDP p/annum.


It's not just the investments. The Turks are rattled mainly because Egypt was supposed to be part of a 'new order' that Davutoglu was hoping to spearhead in the Middle East and North Africa. Of course it was typical Turkish fantasy. But they really were pushing Turkey as a model for Egypt and other Arab Spring countries. The opposite is now happening...


Yes, weren't they spearheading Egypt's supposed withdrawal from recognising Cyprus' EEZ and signing a new deal with Turkey ...

cyprus40063.html
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Re: Egypt Coup a Strategic Loss to Turkey

Postby Demonax » Tue Jul 30, 2013 11:44 pm

It’s not getting any easier for the dynamic dipsticks - Erdogan and Davutoglu:

The fall and fall of the Turkish Empire

Perhaps it is about time the very important men in Ankara should sit down and think over the Egyptian interim government’s warning that Ankara should stop meddling in Egyptian politics. It was not a coincidence that Egypt’s presidential spokesman, Ahmed Elmoslmany, said that “1- The Turkish statements were inappropriate, 2- Ankara should respect Egypt’s sovereignty, and 3- Turkey has to understand it is speaking about a big country with a great history.”

It was not a coincidence either that some Egyptian NGOs are calling Egyptians and Arabs to boycott Turkish goods and soap operas. Nor was it another coincidence that Egypt’s ambassador to Ankara, Abdurrahman Salahaddin, told Hürriyet that “Egypt’s intellectuals, writers and businessmen were recommending a break in Egypt’s relations with Turkey because they are disappointed.”

And now, are you, Mr. Davutoğlu, surprised that Egypt unilaterally cancelled visa-free travel for Turkish citizens? Are you surprised that Lebanon is no longer a safe travel destination for Turkish citizens? Are you surprised that the comrades in arms of your brothers in arms in Syria attacked the Turkish embassy in Mogadishu and killed one Turkish police officer? Are you really shocked that “some” Muslims could commit such acts? You may not call them Muslims, but they do.

If Mr. Erdoğan wishes to test his popularity on the Arab Street would he care to visit Cairo, Baghdad or Beirut – after the Maghreb disappointment early in June? (I would strongly advise against Mogadishu, Aleppo or Damascus where, like Cairo and Beirut, he once was a “rock-star” but could now probably be a potential martyr.)


http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/the-fa ... sCatID=398
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Re: Egypt Coup a Strategic Loss to Turkey

Postby Demonax » Fri Aug 09, 2013 1:42 pm

More on Turkey's 'no mates' foreign policy:

Turkey loses friends in the Middle East

It looks like the unkindest cut of all. After years in which the march of Turkish soap operas across the Middle East has been hailed as proof of Ankara’s soft power in the Arab world, someone wants to pull the plug.

The post-coup government in Egypt, which is barely on talking terms with Turkey, appears to be encouraging a boycott of Turkish soaps, a move that not only hits a showpiece cultural export but comes at a time when Ankara is confronting a host of problems in the Middle East.

The glory days of August 2011, when prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was greeted by thousands of sympathisers at Cairo airport, seem very far away. Indeed the upheaval in the Arab world, which once seemed set to bolster Turkey’s influence, is turning into a serious headache on issues ranging from soap operas to shootings.

According to Egypt’s state-controlled Ahram news service, the Egyptian Radio and Television Union has postponed the broadcast of several Turkish serials, while the Egyptian Cinema Syndicate says the boycott call has attracted the attention of both state and public companies.

The push to deliver a blow to Turkey’s most publicly visible presence in the Arab world is just the latest sign of the rupture between Egypt’s post-coup rulers and Ankara, one of the strongest backers of former President Mohamed Morsi.

This week, Mr Erdogan denounced those who “refuse to call a military coup a military coup” and who “ignore oppression and massacres in Egypt” – a reference to the west but also perhaps to some Arab states.

And indeed Turkey’s problems in the region are not confined to Egypt – far from it. Ankara is at odds with Saudi Arabia, which has greeted the Cairo coup with enthusiasm. It still has very difficult relations with Iran, and has become mired in what looks for all the world like a proxy war in Syria, where Tehran in seeking to shore up President Bashar al-Assad, while Ankara is campaigning for his ouster.

Then there is Syria itself, where there is real chaos on the 900km long border with Turkey. Ankara officially still has an open door policy for Syrian refugees fleeing from the Assad regime. But with 200,000 now in Turkish camps – at a cost of more than $1bn – and an additional 300,000 elsewhere in Turkey, the door is effectively closed.

Against this backdrop, surreal and alarming events are occurring on the border. At the end of July, on two successive days, Turkey used tear gas to repel thousands of “smugglers” – about 1,000 on the first occasion; 1,500-2000 on the second. This week, there was another incident, involving 3,000 people and an exchange of fire in which 18 Turkish soldiers were wounded. The incidents remain murky and do seem to involve the attempted smuggling of oil – but also hundreds of people who simply wanted to get across the border.

Meanwhile, four Turkish people have been killed in recent weeks in the border town of Ceylanpinar, due to stray shots from the Syrian side. They were likely to have been victims of fighting between the PYD, a Syrian sister organisation to Turkey’s banned PKK, and Jabhat al-Nusra, an Islamist organisation linked to al-Qaeda. Many local Kurds insist Turkey is backing the jihadists. Ankara denies backing al-Nusra and has recently established contacts with the PYD, although officials acknowledge that arms for the jihadist group are probably crossing the border.

The issue may be beginning to haunt Turkey. In a phone conversation this week, instigated at Mr Erdogan’s request, the prime minister tried to impress Turkey’s point of view on Egypt on President Barack Obama. But the first issue noted by the White House press release was “the danger of foreign extremists in Syria” – an apparent reference to al-Nusra, about which the US has been much more alarmed than Turkey.

As the Arab spring turns messy and as Turkey finds relations with old allies increasingly difficult, losing soap opera rights may be the least of its problems.


http://blogs.ft.com/the-world/2013/08/t ... %2Fproduct
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Re: Egypt Coup a Strategic Loss to Turkey

Postby Tim Drayton » Fri Aug 16, 2013 10:59 am

Turkey and Egypt are recalling their ambassadors from each other's country.

http://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/?hn=434970&kn=8&ka=4&kb=8
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Re: Egypt Coup a Strategic Loss to Turkey

Postby kimon07 » Sat Aug 17, 2013 7:55 am

Egypt cancels naval war games with Turkey

16 August 2013 /TODAYSZAMAN.COM, İSTANBUL
Egypt has canceled naval military drills with Turkey after Ankara’s harsh criticism of the Arab nation’s violent crackdown on Muslim Brotherhood protesters that has killed more than 600.
The decision to cancel joint naval war games and the one within NATO came a day after Ankara announced that it is recalling its ambassador from Cairo and illustrated the rapidly deteriorating relations with Egypt……

http://www.todayszaman.com/newsDetail_g ... sId=323773
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Re: Egypt Coup a Strategic Loss to Turkey

Postby Demonax » Mon Aug 19, 2013 5:05 pm

Egypt to recognize Armenian Genocide, who's next?

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems to have succeeded in spoiling ties with half the countries in the Near East, including major players like Egypt and Syria. Monarchies in the Gulf are, clearly, next in turn.

Erdogan has merely confirmed that the Islamic brotherhood, if it actually exists, implies Arabs' submission to Ottomans. Which, in turn, can't rejoice Arab states who've retained vivid memories of the Ottoman rule. Turkey might be facing an adequate response, if Egypt, Syria and Lebanon were to recognize the Armenian Genocide. The first signal came from Egypt - the most politically significant country of the Arab East.

Egypt’s interim leader pledged to recognize the Armenian Genocide in response to statements by Erdogan condemning "the coup" in Egypt and announcing Islamist Mohammed Morsi a legitimate President.

“The document will be formally submitted to the UN on Monday, August 19,” Adly Mansour said in his Twitter post. “Our representatives in the UN will sign an international document recognizing the Armenian Genocide in Ottoman Turkey which led to the deaths of millions,” the Coptic leader said.

It was in Egypt's Port Said that survivors of the Genocide found refuge in 1915, with heroes of Musa Dagh Resistance, actors, public figures buried in Cairo's old Armenian cemetery.


http://panarmenian.net/m/eng/news/168524?
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