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Egypt Coup a Strategic Loss to Turkey

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Egypt Coup a Strategic Loss to Turkey

Postby Demonax » Wed Jul 10, 2013 1:10 am

Some articles on how the coup in Egypt is a huge strategic loss to Erdogan and the AKP:

Coup in Egypt Strategic Loss

Turkish Leadership Demoralized By Coup in Egypt

The Cost of the coup in Egypt to the (AKP) government

The losses are large and even strategic. The Muslim Brotherhood [Ikhwan] government in Egypt was the strategic partner of an AKP-led Turkey in terms of economic and political ties. An Ikhwan-led Egypt was the sine qua non of the "new Middle East order" or the "new Islamic world" for which Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has claimed leadership and authority.

Our visionaries will obviously not be able to build the new regional order with their only remaining ally HAMAS in an eastern Mediterranean basin where Syria's Bashar al-Asad cannot be ousted. At this point, with the Ikhwan ousted in Egypt, it is not even worth discussing the An Nahda-led unobtrusive Tunisia.

Another important aspect of Ikhwan for the vision of the AKP was that Egypt allowed [Turkey] to exercise soft power. We know that the AKP wanted to transfer to the Ikhwan its knowledge and experience in organizational and campaigning techniques in democratic processes and to activate the "AKP model" in Egypt. However, that Ikhwan government is no more. Consequently, the AKP has much less room to exercise soft power now.

The "soft power" that was exercised through financial assistance was evidence of the scale of importance Ankara attached to the Ikhwan-led Egypt. Last October, when Egypt was struggling to secure a loan of $4.8 billion from the IMF, Ankara extended Cairo a five-year $1 billion loan, with no payments for three years. That was a large sum for both countries. Now, that $1 billion will not pay the expected political dividends.
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Re: Egypt Coup a Strategic Loss to Turkey

Postby Demonax » Thu Jul 11, 2013 10:51 pm

Good article on how Turkey is a big loser from events in Egypt:

Turkey and Qatar are the main losers of the events in Egypt. Turkey's close relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood and Ankara's strong reaction against the coup will contribute to the ongoing decline of Turkish influence in the region. Turkey's Syria policy and its inability to deter Syrian attacks against Turkish civilians, territory and military had already dented Turkey's image in the region. The reversal of fortunes in Syria is extremely worrying for Ankara. The concomitant tension with Iraq and Iran as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon has limited Turkey's room for maneuvering even more dramatically. The changes in Egypt signify a diminishing of Turkish influence in the region.


http://www.todayszaman.com/columnistDet ... sId=320596
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Re: Egypt Coup a Strategic Loss to Turkey

Postby Maximus » Thu Jul 11, 2013 11:09 pm

Turkeys regional power status is over stated. Sure, she has a large military and modern weapons to bully and threaten smaller nations with but I cant think of one regional crisis/conflict that she has resolved. I can think of many which she has created and paid through the nose for both financially and politically though.

In the end, the regime abuses and beats its own citizens. What kind of regional power is this?
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Re: Egypt Coup a Strategic Loss to Turkey

Postby Get Real! » Fri Jul 12, 2013 12:55 am

Demonax wrote:Some articles on how the coup in Egypt is a huge strategic loss to Erdogan and the AKP:

I don’t agree with any of these articles.

The Morsi government had only been in power for a year under extraordinarily difficult circumstances so they could not have possibly formed any worthwhile relationship with Turkey or any other country for that matter. There may have been plenty of talk but there was certainly no time for anything worthwhile and anything long-term to materialize.

As for Turkey’s “strategic plans” all one can do is laugh here because Turkey clearly has no plans whatsoever and that is evident from its abysmal foreign policy and total isolation from all neighboring countries. The Erdogan government will be lucky to make it to the end of the year let alone play regional games.
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Re: Egypt Coup a Strategic Loss to Turkey

Postby Get Real! » Fri Jul 12, 2013 12:59 am

Maximus wrote:In the end, the regime abuses and beats its own citizens. What kind of regional power is this?

America beats, kills and abuses her citizens on a daily basis so that’s not an issue apparently.
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Re: Egypt Coup a Strategic Loss to Turkey

Postby Demonax » Fri Jul 12, 2013 1:14 am

Get Real! wrote:I don’t agree with any of these articles.

The Morsi government had only been in power for a year under extraordinarily difficult circumstances so they could not have possibly formed any worthwhile relationship with Turkey or any other country for that matter. There may have been plenty of talk but there was certainly no time for anything worthwhile and anything long-term to materialize.

As for Turkey’s “strategic plans” all one can do is laugh here because Turkey clearly has no plans whatsoever and that is evident from its abysmal foreign policy and total isolation from all neighboring countries. The Erdogan government will be lucky to make it to the end of the year let alone play regional games.


There are plenty of suggestions that Turkey had close links with the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and had invested billions in Egypt. Clearly this was supposed to be the start of a wider regional partnership involving Egypt and Turkey.

This was their 'strategic plan'. It was all they had after they alienated Iran, Syria, the EU and everyone else. All that was left was Morsi and Hamas. Now it’s just Hamas.
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Re: Egypt Coup a Strategic Loss to Turkey

Postby Get Real! » Fri Jul 12, 2013 1:21 am

Demonax wrote:...and had invested billions in Egypt.

I haven't seen any evidence of that and I read international news (politics & finance) from 20-30 sources each day.
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Re: Egypt Coup a Strategic Loss to Turkey

Postby Demonax » Fri Jul 12, 2013 1:29 am

Get Real! wrote:
Demonax wrote:...and had invested billions in Egypt.

I haven't seen any evidence of that and I read international news (politics & finance) from 20-30 sources each day.


Ah okay. I just double-checked the figures. Egypt was after a 5 billion loan from the IMF which it couldn’t get so Turkey stepped in. The Al-Monitor article above quotes a ‘five-year, $1 billion loan to Egypt with no repayment for the first three years. This is a massive amount of money for both countries.’
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Re: Egypt Coup a Strategic Loss to Turkey

Postby Get Real! » Fri Jul 12, 2013 1:35 am

Demonax wrote:
Get Real! wrote:
Demonax wrote:...and had invested billions in Egypt.

I haven't seen any evidence of that and I read international news (politics & finance) from 20-30 sources each day.


Ah okay. I just double-checked the figures. Egypt was after a 5 billion loan from the IMF which it couldn’t get so Turkey stepped in. The Al-Monitor article above quotes a ‘five-year, $1 billion loan to Egypt with no repayment for the first three years. This is a massive amount of money for both countries.’

:lol: Sorry but 1 billion for countries of that size in this day and age is laughable! :lol:

What's 1 billion when you've got 80 million people to look after?

Anyway, Saudi Arabia or Qatar could've easily funded anything the Muslim Brotherhood wanted and I'm sure they already have and probably don't want it back!
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Re: Egypt Coup a Strategic Loss to Turkey

Postby Demonax » Fri Jul 12, 2013 1:58 am

Get Real! wrote:
What's 1 billion when you've got 80 million people to look after?

Anyway, Saudi Arabia or Qatar could've easily funded anything the Muslim Brotherhood wanted and I'm sure they already have and probably don't want it back!


Er... Saudi Arabia is ideologically opposed to the Muslim Brotherhood, supports the new regime and has moved to finance it with offers of investment.

As for the Turkish loan to Egypt it was a stop-gap measure as it was running out of currency reserves. Here is more on the details of the complete package: 2 billion in total, around half of what Egypt was trying to raise from the IMF:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/ ... QX20130417
Last edited by Demonax on Fri Jul 12, 2013 2:29 am, edited 3 times in total.
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