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Turkey - Preparing for Chaos

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Re: Turkey - Preparing for Chaos

Postby GreekIslandGirl » Sat Aug 10, 2013 1:41 pm

Demonax wrote:
GreekIslandGirl wrote:
As I said, the Kurds were conveniently, strategically, silenced during the chaos. And then Turkey (predictably) reneges on commitments and bingo - the Kurds have missed the boat! Full marks to Turkey for achievement (zero for methods and aims).


You sound like Viewpoint at times. You really are so in awe of Turkey it borders on hero worship. You think they are brilliant strategists and arch manipulators who turn every setback to their advantage. Maybe you could find work in their Ministry of Propaganda?

If you had any knowledge of what is going on in Kurdish-Turkey affairs you wouldn’t assume that Gezi Park was a missed opportunity' for Kurds. Kurds aren't as stupid or opportunistic as that. Kurds know that they have a good hand right now and know better than to throw it away on the back of a protest that has nothing to do with them.


My heroes are not tricksters like Turkey. Just because I know they usually come out on top, that doesn't mean I admire their means and aims. I just think we need to wise up and not naively trust them. The Kurds trusted them and look what has happened to them! Not just once but ever since Sevres/Lausanne. (Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.)

We, who have suffered at the hands of Turks, should warn the other EU members of what it means once you let down your guard with Turkey. They take everything and give nothing!
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Re: Turkey - Preparing for Chaos

Postby Demonax » Sat Aug 10, 2013 1:56 pm

GreekIslandGirl wrote:
My heroes are not tricksters like Turkey. Just because I know they usually come out on top, that doesn't mean I admire their means and aims. I just think we need to wise up and not naively trust them. The Kurds trusted them and look what has happened to them! Not just once but ever since Sevres/Lausanne. (Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.)

We, who have suffered at the hands of Turks, should warn the other EU members of what it means once you let down your guard with Turkey. They take everything and give nothing!


Except you think they come out on top even when they are in the midst of chaos and face nothing but problems. You have to get over your Ottoman mindset that Turks always come out on top. They don't. And I don't think the EU is fooled by Erdogan any more. What makes you think that? He has zero credibility. His entire policy of the Turkish model has come unstuck and he is seen as nothing but a petty Islamic dictator. Another reason why we're always proved right and Turkey always loses!
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Re: Turkey - Preparing for Chaos

Postby Lordo » Sat Aug 10, 2013 2:34 pm

more frothing in the mouth. you have been waiting for 50 years for terkey to impload. dream on.
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Re: Turkey - Preparing for Chaos

Postby B25 » Sat Aug 10, 2013 2:36 pm

Demon, with respect, and i do have a lot for you, but we should not become complacent where th EU and Turkey are concerned. GiGs has a valid point we cannot trust the eu to do whats right, just, and lawful otherwise they would have cancelled turkeys eu bid long ago and sanction her. This has not happened, why? Bigger things are at stake, w just need to be on our guard and make more noise within the eu.
All the best, you are doing a grand job.
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Re: Turkey - Preparing for Chaos

Postby Lordo » Sat Aug 10, 2013 2:40 pm

first you have to learn to piss in the pot, the rest will come later in good time. elambciklarim.
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Re: Turkey - Preparing for Chaos

Postby Demonax » Sat Aug 10, 2013 3:01 pm

B25 wrote:Demon, with respect, and i do have a lot for you, but we should not become complacent where th EU and Turkey are concerned. GiGs has a valid point we cannot trust the eu to do whats right, just, and lawful otherwise they would have cancelled turkeys eu bid long ago and sanction her. This has not happened, why? Bigger things are at stake, w just need to be on our guard and make more noise within the eu.
All the best, you are doing a grand job.


I agree B25, but the EU is clearly divided between those who are keen to encourage Turkey's EU membership in the Commission and those governments who are opposed. Right now,Turkey's EU membership is going nowhere because there are some real and practical obstacles in their way: namely the Ankara Protocol and in the long term a Cyprus solution. In the longer term there is German, Austrian objections on full membership. But that's not our problem now.

Our policy is to keep Turkey's membership options open as this means we (and the EU) can exert influence over Turkey. The current situation is to our advantage. Shutting off talks altogether isn't. I judge everything as to how useful it is to us.

What Gul says about Turkey restarting its EU talks is interesting. It's a clear rebuke to Erdogan and Davutoglu whose Middle East adventure has blown up in their faces. Now they have come back to the EU and the West - and the problem of the occupation of Cyprus. That's where we want them.
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Re: Turkey - Preparing for Chaos

Postby kimon07 » Sat Aug 10, 2013 6:35 pm

Demonax wrote:Kimon, I don't think the Turkish military will intervene. But I do think things will deteriorate in Turkey. The Syria mess has come back to haunt them. They've got Al Qaeda groups on the Turkish border which they've been funding. Think Afghanistan on the Turkish border!


I am not that sure. Basbug is already mailing warnings from prison and trying to make the to brass in charge of the turkish forces feel ashamed for not reacting.

Meanwhile the Syrian Kurds are close to setting up an autonomous region also on the Turkish border. This will embolden the Kurds in Turkey. The 'peace deal' with the Kurds in Turkey is already unravelling.


True.

And the Gezi protests haven't gone away. Students return to the universities in Autumn. The combination of Kurdish and domestic unrest will happen. It doesn't need a conspiracist to tell you that.


Well September is not far.

As for Cyprus, we should be ready for all eventualities. Gul is talking about rebooting Turkey's EU accession because the whole neo-Ottoman strategy of Davutoglu and Erdogan has been a disaster. Let's hope Turkey sees sense.


Let's hope NOT! The furthest away they drift from Europe and the more they try to become dominant in the wider region of the Mid East, the more they scare their traditional friends and protectors as well as their neighbours.
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Re: Turkey - Preparing for Chaos

Postby GreekIslandGirl » Sat Aug 10, 2013 6:44 pm

Demonax wrote:Our policy is to keep Turkey's membership options open as this means we (and the EU) can exert influence over Turkey. The current situation is to our advantage. Shutting off talks altogether isn't.


I disagree. You seem to want the status quo to continue. But, it was to the advantage of Turkey; never for Cyprus. The EU cannot "influence" Turkey - give me one example if it has.

If anything is going to happen to free Cyprus, it has to be through distancing Turkey from the Western world. Only when the EU stops pretending Turkey will be considered for membership can the EU truly treat Turkey as the enemy to freedom that it is.
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Re: Turkey - Preparing for Chaos

Postby Demonax » Sat Aug 10, 2013 6:53 pm

kimon07 wrote:Let's hope NOT! The furthest away they drift from Europe and the more they try to become dominant in the wider region of the Mid East, the more they scare their traditional friends and protectors as well as their neighbours.


They've done that already! They've got no friends left, only enemies. Chaos on their borders, Kurds on the rise and unrest at home. It's not going to get any better. The economy is on the slide and Erdogan has no credibility beyond his Islamic base. While the Eastern Med is turning into a gas corridor with Greece, Cyprus and Israel making plans to exploit it.

And now the Turkish President is going on about how much they need EU accession! Well if they're serious, the bastards will have to pay a price for it.
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Re: Turkey - Preparing for Chaos

Postby Demonax » Sat Aug 10, 2013 7:08 pm

GreekIslandGirl wrote:
I disagree. You seem to want the status quo to continue. But, it was to the advantage of Turkey; never for Cyprus. The EU cannot "influence" Turkey - give me one example if it has.

If anything is going to happen to free Cyprus, it has to be through distancing Turkey from the Western world. Only when the EU stops pretending Turkey will be considered for membership can the EU truly treat Turkey as the enemy to freedom that it is.


You do know that the EU has frozen Turkey's EU accession? You do know that no more chapters are likely to open without implementation of the Ankara Protocol?

You seem to be unaware that the whole charade has ground to a halt and that Turkey cannot continue as before. Meanwhile its economy is not going to grow without the prospect of EU Membership. The whole Turkish economic model has come unstuck. Its turn East has been exposed as nonsense. Turkey has only one place realistically to turn: the EU.

So your plan is to do exactly what Turkish extremists want, to pull the plug on the whole thing and leave Cyprus with no leverage at all. Really think we should see how this plays out before chucking away our only hand. :roll:
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