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by **Londonrake** » Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:19 am

Press.jpg

by **dinos** » Sat Aug 08, 2020 4:28 pm

Paphitis wrote:
Trumps approval ratings were worse in the last election.

He is starting to rally with an 8% increase in approval but I don’t expect Trump to actually win a single poll. But still win the election.

Polls were off by around 4% in 2016 against a rather hated candidate. Biden isn't saddled with the same baggage that Clinton was. The only drag on him is his (rapidly) declining cognition - the less he says, the better off he is.

His approval has been in a range between 43.3 in Aug '19 and 43.1 in aggregate polling as of yesterday. His numbers aren't good, and his messaging is clearly out of touch with reality. Socialism is very unpopular Stateside, but nobody will care about that when they have no work, are out of money, and their elected officials are telling them that they'll get lazy if given any aid. Trump's hit pieces on Biden saying that he's going to usher in extreme-left politics are unlikely to stick the landings.

The real detail is how he's doing in swing states because that's really what decides the election. He's behind Biden in 8 of 12 battleground states, and he's within the margin of error in 3 of the 4 he's ahead in.

Obviously, there's a long time between now and November and anything can happen. If Biden doesn't cuck out of the debates, he's going to look like a feeble old man next to Trump. Economic factors can change. Changes in the spread of the pandemic can change. Given the incumbent advantage, I'd give Trump a 55% chance of pulling it off again.

Honestly, I'd love nothing more than to see the pseudo-leftists (ice-cream commies, Starbucks marxists, etc) melt down at another Trump victory. They're going to wreck their own cities and hinder their own chances of living successful lives. Fuck 'em. I live in a suburb of NYC. People are leaving and coming out here, driving up housing prices (that's a separate story in and of itself, but a lot of cities like NYC, Seattle, Minneapolis, etc are buggered). That's going to make us some nice bank out here.

Hope you're well.....

by **Kikapu** » Sat Aug 08, 2020 4:41 pm

dinos wrote:
Paphitis wrote:
Trumps approval ratings were worse in the last election.

He is starting to rally with an 8% increase in approval but I don’t expect Trump to actually win a single poll. But still win the election.

Polls were off by around 4% in 2016 against a rather hated candidate. Biden isn't saddled with the same baggage that Clinton was. The only drag on him is his (rapidly) declining cognition - the less he says, the better off he is.

His approval has been in a range between 43.3 in Aug '19 and 43.1 in aggregate polling as of yesterday. His numbers aren't good, and his messaging is clearly out of touch with reality. Socialism is very unpopular Stateside, but nobody will care about that when they have no work, are out of money, and their elected officials are telling them that they'll get lazy if given any aid. Trump's hit pieces on Biden saying that he's going to usher in extreme-left politics are unlikely to stick the landings.

The real detail is how he's doing in swing states because that's really what decides the election. He's behind Biden in 8 of 12 battleground states, and he's within the margin of error in 3 of the 4 he's ahead in.

Obviously, there's a long time between now and November and anything can happen. If Biden doesn't cuck out of the debates, he's going to look like a feeble old man next to Trump. Economic factors can change. Changes in the spread of the pandemic can change. Given the incumbent advantage, I'd give Trump a 55% chance of pulling it off again.

Honestly, I'd love nothing more than to see the pseudo-leftists (ice-cream commies, Starbucks marxists, etc) melt down at another Trump victory. They're going to wreck their own cities and hinder their own chances of living successful lives. Fuck 'em. I live in a suburb of NYC. People are leaving and coming out here, driving up housing prices (that's a separate story in and of itself, but a lot of cities like NYC, Seattle, Minneapolis, etc are buggered). That's going to make us some nice bank out here.

Hope you're well.....

I agree with you Dino’s, but with a twist.

I am almost expecting at the Democratic Convention when it comes to declare Biden as the candidate for the US presidency, Biden will say, “thank you but no thank you”, and instead he will say, “I will nominate NY governor Andrew Coumo as the leader of the Democratic Party and the candidate for US presidency.” He will be a great candidate against Trump and a good guy overall really.

by **Londonrake** » Sat Aug 08, 2020 4:46 pm

Biden’s had a couple of good gaffes this week. The more the campaigning pressure mounts the more prone he will probably become. The ole “you can run but you can’t hide” maxim.

by **Kikapu** » Sat Aug 08, 2020 4:52 pm

Londonrake wrote:Biden’s had a couple of good gaffes this week. The more the campaigning pressure mounts the more prone he will probably become. The ole “you can run but you can’t hide” maxim.

Biden had those most of his political life.

by **Londonrake** » Sat Aug 08, 2020 5:07 pm

Plus........... his Press Officer’s a real dog. :lol:

by **Kikapu** » Sat Aug 08, 2020 5:11 pm

Londonrake wrote:Plus........... his Press Officer’s a real dog.

Most probably a volunteer.

You get what you pay for! :lol:

by **dinos** » Sat Aug 08, 2020 6:57 pm

Kikapu wrote:
I agree with you Dino’s, but with a twist.

I am almost expecting at the Democratic Convention when it comes to declare Biden as the candidate for the US presidency, Biden will say, “thank you but no thank you”, and instead he will say, “I will nominate NY governor Andrew Coumo as the leader of the Democratic Party and the candidate for US presidency.” He will be a great candidate against Trump and a good guy overall really.

My money's on there not being a convention at all; Ds would be too worried about what Bernie bros might try to do. Plus, Biden has succeeded by being held captive in his basement. Why risk it? :mrgreen:

I do agree with you though, Cuomo would find a way under Trump's skin and gain control of the narrative, and could probably win.

by **repulsewarrior** » Sat Aug 08, 2020 7:06 pm

...in any case, it is decades, not years, that this man (Biden), politically, has survived; this is something worth thinking about.

Indeed, the American population is split. The, anything but Hillary, movement will now decide on their choice. They will have to look through the mayhem for a result that in effect justifies Trump's re-election.

...here is where Trump fails, because he has no policy. Yet he may always be hopeful sitting on a fence, to "be" engaging, with "his" people divided, force his top choice against Americans who protest, this to him is Leadership.

Americans want change, not just any change blaming "others", but the change all Americans want, values they all respect enough, as Individuals to defend, Persons or not, as one People.