cyprusgrump wrote:Firstly, I’ve made my end of August prediction and I’m not going to jump through any hoop predicting anything else that you think will support your obvious agenda…
How predictable. Oh yeah that is right I DID predict that this is what you would do. You demand a guess from me re global total covid deaths whilst refusing to give in return your guesses on the two stats I wanted. You are such a pussy and so transparent and predictable. You chose the number that you think suits your agenda, I give it and then you refuse to give your predictions on my stats because you think I think they suit my agenda (actually I just prefer them because they are hard numbers). So predictable. So predicted.
cyprusgrump wrote:End of August, World Wide Daily Deaths <4,000.
So not even 24 hours has past and you have already revised your original prediction on your chosen stat upwards by 1000.
cyprus47300-2470.html#p899382cyprusgrump yesterday wrote:Around September 13th...? I'd guess 3,000ish...
So according to you on the 25th Jun, the virus was rapidly dying out almost anywhere. At that point the global daily covid deaths was running at around 5k a day. So after 80 days from the point you claimed the virus is rapidly dying out, you predict only a 20% reduction in global deaths. That is your idea of what 'rapidly dying our almost everywhere' looks like is it ? Twat.
cyprusgrump wrote:Secondly, here are some quotes from this thread where you insist that ‘total deaths’ are the only reliable measure….
And yet ANOTHER prediction from me is proven correct
erolz66 wrote: At best you will try and take what I have said previously and try and twist and distort it to suit .... The best you could do is try and take where I have said that ONS numbers for total deaths ALL CAUSES is the 'gold standard' and twist that to make out I said that 'ONS number for covid deaths'
EXACTLY what you then went on and did. QED - another prediction in the bag.
Once more - deaths from all causes - hard number. Covid death - soft number. That is what I have said since day one and consistently from then on. The reason why is simple and plain and has been made not just by me but by countless experts included large numbers of cited experts from yourself and TD. We all say the same thing for the same reason and you STILL can not comprehend it.
cyprusgrump wrote:Remember when you used to quote the weekly ONS Total Death numbers when it suited your cause…?
I have always started with total deaths all causes because it the hardest number. Still do. Still happy to talk about. When you asked me to, I did just that. To date England and Wales has seen 53,000 more deaths this year than 5 year average. I talk about it and you just ignore it when I do whilst continuing to say I will no longer talk about these numbers. You are such a twat.
So shall we look at some of your distortions in a bit more detail ?
erolz66 » Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:28 pm wrote:Any numbers relating specifically to the virus are less 'hard' right now than these numbers.
So I look at them 'before' the 'cause of death' figures from the same place even.
Can you understand what the above actually says. It says I do NOT start with numbers like total covid deaths and you use THIS as proof that I said I start with covid deaths. Twat. I say the OPPOSITE of that. I have always said the opposite of that.
Same predicted twisting and distortion here
erolz66 » Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:31 pm wrote:For me the total death numbers are vastly more 'hard' than any numbers relating specifically to the virus.
Global covid deaths specifically relates to the virus. That is the number you demanded I predict and I just with utter and total consistency pointed out that it is a soft number and prefer hard ones. So agin the very quote you claim shows I have 'shifted' my position actually shows exactly the opposite. Twat.
and again
erolz66 » Sun Apr 26, 2020 9:19 pm wrote:[b]And for those who will jump in and scream , cause of death is being misreported I say look then at the total death figures for those weeks and explain the massive jumps if they are NOT related to the virus.
So again I explicitly make the point that total deaths ALL CAUSES is a 'hard' number. Again the above quote does not show what you claim it does it shows the opposite. Twat.
again
erolz66 » Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:01 pm wrote:Not the numbers on covid deaths, just the ones on total deaths ?
What is so hard to understand about "NOT THE NUMBERS ON COVID DEATHS" ? The very number you demanded I give my prediction on and have given. I did not like suh soft numbers then and I still do not like them now compared to the hard number , which you steadfastly refuse to give your predictions on. As I predicted you would.
cyprusgrump wrote:Now bizarrely, you are more interested in SOFT deaths, HARD deaths, Year End Deaths and Cases. Anything in fact that will distract from the weekly ONS figures that you used to cherish...
I have totally and consistently started with 'total deaths all causes number' numbers ahead of 'total covid deaths'. 100% totally consistent. Consistent with Tim's citied article that said "The simplest way to judge whether we have an exceptionally lethal disease is to look at the death rates. Are more people dying than we would expect to die anyway in a given week or month?" . Not are there more covid deaths but are there just more deaths over all from all causes.
I AM talking about the hard ONS numbers - total deaths all causes. YOU are the one who will not talk about them, except to take single snap shot weeks because they show a tiny decrease for that specific week, yet you just ignore that they show year to date that 53,000 people in England and Wales to date have died vs the expect number of deaths for that period (5 year average). Remember Tim's expert ? When he said "The simplest way to judge whether we have an exceptionally lethal disease is to look at the death rates. Are more people dying than we would expect to die anyway in a given week or month?". What the hard ONS numbers show is that YES to date more people have died than we would expect to die in that period. That is what the ONS hard numbers on deaths from all causes show. It is what you ignore entirely. Sure you will talk about one specific week where 161 less people died in that week than expected whilst ignoring the weeks where 12,000 people more than expect died.
So let's talk about the ONS total death all causes figures. There will be a net figure, positive or negative, for the year 2020, for total deaths all causes vs 5 year average. I have given you my prediction for what this number will be by year end. It will be 40k plus. That is by the end of the year 40 thousand more people than expected will have died. That will be more excess deaths than seen in the previous 10 years, with seasonal flu spikes and all. Now if your 25 june claim that the virus was rapidly dying out everywhere is correct and your view that most who have died were people who were going to dying within 6 months anyway is correct that figures should be close to zero. That is why you will not give your prediction. It is whay I knew you would not give your prediction. Because you KNOW that you were just totally and utterly wrong when you claimed 25 june the virus was rapidly dying out almost everywhere and you know that has been shown already and you know you will have no get out on a hard number like total deaths all causes. You will only give a prediction on the soft number of how many people died of coid because you know if it proves to be badly wrong you can just fall back on 'yeah but they attributed deaths to covid that were not from covid'. You NEED that softness and potential get out clause and you know it. Stop being such a pussy and show some conviction in what you claim to believe in and make a prediction.
By year end the ONS stats on total deaths all causes will show that in 2020 more people than expect died from all causes than any year in the previous ten. That is my prediction. At least 40k more deaths by year end than expected in England and Wales. More than any previous year in the last 10 (and probably in last 50-100). So more than seen with regular periodic flu spikes.
The simplest way to judge whether we have an exceptionally lethal disease is to look at the death rates. Are more people dying than we would expect to die anyway in a given week or month?"
Give us your prediction your coward.
erolz66 » Sun Apr 19, 2020 10:53 am wrote:nice one CRG. not a trump fan myself but am and always have been a fan of truth and accuracy before and above anything else. something I think some others here could consider perhaps.
Yep true then and still true now.
