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Still no confirmed Corona cases in Cyprus, but for how long?

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Re: Still no confirmed Corona cases in Cyprus, but for how l

Postby cyprusgrump » Tue Aug 04, 2020 8:36 pm

erolz66 wrote:
I have given you the prediction you wanted, I am still waiting for YOUR prediction that I asked for and have not given yet. Global confirmed positives by 13th Sept and ONS year end net excess deaths all causes vs 5 year average for whole year.


Simple question...

Why have you changed your 'Gold Standard' from ONS Deaths to 'confirmed positives'...? :?

I'm busy at the moment but I'll post your insistence that the only true measure is 'ONS Deaths' in the morning... :wink:

And you well know that I've given you my prediction based on your 'Gold Standard' already...

You're going to look a right dick when this pans out... :lol:

...but then... :lol:
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Re: Still no confirmed Corona cases in Cyprus, but for how l

Postby erolz66 » Tue Aug 04, 2020 9:18 pm

cyprusgrump wrote:
erolz66 wrote:
I have given you the prediction you wanted, I am still waiting for YOUR prediction that I asked for and have not given yet. Global confirmed positives by 13th Sept and ONS year end net excess deaths all causes vs 5 year average for whole year.


Simple question...

Why have you changed your 'Gold Standard' from ONS Deaths to 'confirmed positives'...? :?


I have not. You just imagine I have because it suits you to think that. I have given my prediction on the hardest number, ONS deaths all causes. I have given it on the second hardest numbers, confirmed positives AND I have given on your super soft 'deaths from covid number'. Now concentrate CG and really try on this - what is the difference between the ONS number for covid deaths (the global equivalent you demanded I guess at) and ONS number for deaths from ALL CAUSES. Try thinking which of these two different things I actually have consistently championed as a 'gold standard' and which I have NOT championed. Then you might get a hint as to why you come across to me as such a monumental dick head.

cyprusgrump wrote:I'm busy at the moment but I'll post your insistence that the only true measure is 'ONS Deaths' in the morning... :wink:


No you will not. At best you will try and take what I have said previously and try and twist and distort it to suit but even that is doubtful on past experience. I have never said covid deaths are the gold standard. Not such numbers from ONS numbers or anywhere else. The best you could do is try and take where I have said that ONS numbers for total deaths ALL CAUSES is the 'gold standard' and twist that to make out I said that 'ONS number for covid deaths'
are the gold standard. Again try hard here - it is not the ONS bit that makes the numbers 'hard'. What makes the numbers hard is are you counting something that is INDISPUTABLE or something that is OPINION. Are you counting such things using people, systems and procedures that have been in place and refined and improved over decades or are you counting something that you have never counted before using people, systems and procedures that have all been made up on the fly in the middle of a ongoing global pandemic.

Now really stretch here CG , really push.

Covid deaths - SOFT number
Total deaths all causes - HARD number

Got it yet ? I mean its only been what 4 , 5 months I have been saying this over and over again and you still have not understood what I have said. Are you there yet ? Got it yet ? Repeat after me Covid deaths - SOFT number, Total deaths all causes - HARD number. Is that really so hard to understand ?

cyprusgrump wrote:And you well know that I've given you my prediction based on your 'Gold Standard' already...


No you have just yet again proudly delayed the weakness of your ability to hear or comprehend. See above. Once more Deaths attributed to covid specifically has NEVER EVER been my 'gold standard'. I have been excruciatingly clear and repetitive on this and you STILL just get totally WRONG what I have actually said. What you are measuring with deaths attributed to covid is opinion. It is subject to 'bias'. No amount of bias can change if you are dead or not dead. That is why total deaths FROM ALL CAUSES is the 'gold standard'. That is what I have said unfailingly for months and what you still have not understood. You have NOT given your number for how many total excess deaths ALL CAUSES you think will be in the ONS numbers by year end. I said you would not give your prediction for this number even as you request guesses from me. To date you have not given me this guess and are continuing to prove my prediction you would not right as well.

cyprusgrump wrote:You're going to look a right dick when this pans out... :lol:

...but then... :lol:


You have ALREADY been shown as such, with your claim back June 25th that the virus was rapidly dying our almost everywhere back then, when we now know that you were just totally and utterly WRONG.

Still waiting for your guesses for

1. Total excess deaths all causes vs 5 year average by end of 2020 in ONE stats.
2. How many more confirmed positives there will be in the next 40 days.

You know the one based on HARD numbers. Still waiting and my prediction you will not produce such even as you ask for my prediction on the super soft number you wanted which I have given.


---------------

Go Brentford !
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Re: Still no confirmed Corona cases in Cyprus, but for how l

Postby erolz66 » Wed Aug 05, 2020 12:49 pm

erolz66 wrote:
cyprusgrump wrote:I'm busy at the moment but I'll post your insistence that the only true measure is 'ONS Deaths' in the morning... :wink:


No you will not.


Another prediction proven correct then. It is almost like I am prescient ;)

Still waiting for your predictions on
    ONS net total deaths all causes at 2020 year end
    hopkins global confirmed positives in on 13 Sptember
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Re: Still no confirmed Corona cases in Cyprus, but for how l

Postby cyprusgrump » Wed Aug 05, 2020 1:34 pm

erolz66 wrote:
erolz66 wrote:
cyprusgrump wrote:I'm busy at the moment but I'll post your insistence that the only true measure is 'ONS Deaths' in the morning... :wink:


No you will not.


Another prediction proven correct then. It is almost like I am prescient ;)

Still waiting for your predictions on
    ONS net total deaths all causes at 2020 year end
    hopkins global confirmed positives in on 13 Sptember


Pubescent more like… :roll:

Firstly, I’ve made my end of August prediction and I’m not going to jump through any hoop predicting anything else that you think will support your obvious agenda… End of August, World Wide Daily Deaths <4,000. :wink:

Secondly, here are some quotes from this thread where you insist that ‘total deaths’ are the only reliable measure…. Remember when you used to quote the weekly ONS Total Death numbers when it suited your cause…?

erolz66 » Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:28 pm wrote:Amen to that.

I look at these numbers, before the 'media' before 'experts' because I am searching for understanding. These numbers are 'more understandable' to me than most because :-

1. It is hard to argue about if someone is dead or not. Anything relating to cause of death is to a material degree subjective and 'arguable'.
2. The systems and people that collate these numbers are in place and have been doing so for many years now. Any numbers relating specifically to the virus are less 'hard' right now than these numbers.

So I look at them 'before' the 'cause of death' figures from the same place even.



erolz66 » Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:31 pm wrote:For me the total death numbers are vastly more 'hard' than any numbers relating specifically to the virus. My initial gut reaction when there are discrepancies therefore is that the chances are the total death ones are more a reflection of reality.


erolz66 » Sun Apr 26, 2020 9:19 pm wrote:This is true. What is also true.

In England and Wales in week 11 of the year that is the week up until the 11th March

deaths where coronavirus was mentioned on the death certificate - 5 (massively less than die from flu in a week)

For week 15 - that is the week up until the 10th April

deaths where coronavirus was mentioned on the death certificate - 6,213 (considerably more than die from flu in a week)

And for those who will jump in and scream , cause of death is being misreported I say look then at the total death figures for those weeks and explain the massive jumps if they are NOT related to the virus.


erolz66 » Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:01 pm wrote:While you are at if what these doctors you are so enamoured off are right that "we don’t have to worry about COVID-19 because it’s less dangerous than the seasonal flu." please do explain the UK ONS death statistics ? Not the numbers on covid deaths, just the ones on total deaths ? Are they lying ? Did Bill Gates make them lie about how many people died in England and Wales per week ? Or are these numbers to just be ignored entirely but two contentious doctors are to be listen too (THAT is confirmation bias - ignoring the actual number of deaths and choosing to believe unquestioningly these two doctors)


erolz66 » Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:24 am wrote:Bill Gates uses his billions to influence things and us. You think the Koch brothers (well brother now) do not ? You think they both do so with the same degree of transparency ?

So if we are trying to get best picture of the truth, why are you pushing two doctors with minority opinions more than talking about the hard, simple to understand, total death numbers shown in the ONS England and Wales stats ? You did mention them once two weeks ago. Vs a hell of a lot more posts about 'conspiracy theories' about your two doctors being 'silenced' by the MSM and Bill Gates. The first just 'happens' to support what you appear to believe 'that we are over reacting' and the later does not. Am I being mad or unfair to see a connection there ?

And yes of course it's a false dichotomy. I would claim it is used in the face of others (Paphitis) who systematically uses such false dichotomies to a degree and frequency far exceeding anything I do, all without apparent comment from you. Unfair ? I also accept its a false dichotomy.


Now bizarrely, you are more interested in SOFT deaths, HARD deaths, Year End Deaths and Cases. Anything in fact that will distract from the weekly ONS figures that you used to cherish...


erolz66 » Sun Apr 19, 2020 10:53 am wrote:nice one CRG. not a trump fan myself but am and always have been a fan of truth and accuracy before and above anything else. something I think some others here could consider perhaps.


LOLZ! What a joke you are ErLOLZ! :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Still no confirmed Corona cases in Cyprus, but for how l

Postby cyprusgrump » Wed Aug 05, 2020 3:04 pm

What is that noise I can hear...? :?

Oh... :roll:
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Re: Still no confirmed Corona cases in Cyprus, but for how l

Postby erolz66 » Wed Aug 05, 2020 3:08 pm

cyprusgrump wrote:Firstly, I’ve made my end of August prediction and I’m not going to jump through any hoop predicting anything else that you think will support your obvious agenda…


How predictable. Oh yeah that is right I DID predict that this is what you would do. You demand a guess from me re global total covid deaths whilst refusing to give in return your guesses on the two stats I wanted. You are such a pussy and so transparent and predictable. You chose the number that you think suits your agenda, I give it and then you refuse to give your predictions on my stats because you think I think they suit my agenda (actually I just prefer them because they are hard numbers). So predictable. So predicted.

cyprusgrump wrote:End of August, World Wide Daily Deaths <4,000. :wink:


So not even 24 hours has past and you have already revised your original prediction on your chosen stat upwards by 1000.

cyprus47300-2470.html#p899382

cyprusgrump yesterday wrote:Around September 13th...? I'd guess 3,000ish...


So according to you on the 25th Jun, the virus was rapidly dying out almost anywhere. At that point the global daily covid deaths was running at around 5k a day. So after 80 days from the point you claimed the virus is rapidly dying out, you predict only a 20% reduction in global deaths. That is your idea of what 'rapidly dying our almost everywhere' looks like is it ? Twat.

cyprusgrump wrote:Secondly, here are some quotes from this thread where you insist that ‘total deaths’ are the only reliable measure….


And yet ANOTHER prediction from me is proven correct

erolz66 wrote: At best you will try and take what I have said previously and try and twist and distort it to suit .... The best you could do is try and take where I have said that ONS numbers for total deaths ALL CAUSES is the 'gold standard' and twist that to make out I said that 'ONS number for covid deaths'


EXACTLY what you then went on and did. QED - another prediction in the bag.

Once more - deaths from all causes - hard number. Covid death - soft number. That is what I have said since day one and consistently from then on. The reason why is simple and plain and has been made not just by me but by countless experts included large numbers of cited experts from yourself and TD. We all say the same thing for the same reason and you STILL can not comprehend it.

cyprusgrump wrote:Remember when you used to quote the weekly ONS Total Death numbers when it suited your cause…?


I have always started with total deaths all causes because it the hardest number. Still do. Still happy to talk about. When you asked me to, I did just that. To date England and Wales has seen 53,000 more deaths this year than 5 year average. I talk about it and you just ignore it when I do whilst continuing to say I will no longer talk about these numbers. You are such a twat.

So shall we look at some of your distortions in a bit more detail ?

erolz66 » Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:28 pm wrote:Any numbers relating specifically to the virus are less 'hard' right now than these numbers.

So I look at them 'before' the 'cause of death' figures from the same place even.


Can you understand what the above actually says. It says I do NOT start with numbers like total covid deaths and you use THIS as proof that I said I start with covid deaths. Twat. I say the OPPOSITE of that. I have always said the opposite of that.

Same predicted twisting and distortion here

erolz66 » Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:31 pm wrote:For me the total death numbers are vastly more 'hard' than any numbers relating specifically to the virus.


Global covid deaths specifically relates to the virus. That is the number you demanded I predict and I just with utter and total consistency pointed out that it is a soft number and prefer hard ones. So agin the very quote you claim shows I have 'shifted' my position actually shows exactly the opposite. Twat.

and again

erolz66 » Sun Apr 26, 2020 9:19 pm wrote:[b]And for those who will jump in and scream , cause of death is being misreported I say look then at the total death figures for those weeks and explain the massive jumps if they are NOT related to the virus.


So again I explicitly make the point that total deaths ALL CAUSES is a 'hard' number. Again the above quote does not show what you claim it does it shows the opposite. Twat.

again

erolz66 » Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:01 pm wrote:Not the numbers on covid deaths, just the ones on total deaths ?


What is so hard to understand about "NOT THE NUMBERS ON COVID DEATHS" ? The very number you demanded I give my prediction on and have given. I did not like suh soft numbers then and I still do not like them now compared to the hard number , which you steadfastly refuse to give your predictions on. As I predicted you would.

cyprusgrump wrote:Now bizarrely, you are more interested in SOFT deaths, HARD deaths, Year End Deaths and Cases. Anything in fact that will distract from the weekly ONS figures that you used to cherish...


I have totally and consistently started with 'total deaths all causes number' numbers ahead of 'total covid deaths'. 100% totally consistent. Consistent with Tim's citied article that said "The simplest way to judge whether we have an exceptionally lethal disease is to look at the death rates. Are more people dying than we would expect to die anyway in a given week or month?" . Not are there more covid deaths but are there just more deaths over all from all causes.

I AM talking about the hard ONS numbers - total deaths all causes. YOU are the one who will not talk about them, except to take single snap shot weeks because they show a tiny decrease for that specific week, yet you just ignore that they show year to date that 53,000 people in England and Wales to date have died vs the expect number of deaths for that period (5 year average). Remember Tim's expert ? When he said "The simplest way to judge whether we have an exceptionally lethal disease is to look at the death rates. Are more people dying than we would expect to die anyway in a given week or month?". What the hard ONS numbers show is that YES to date more people have died than we would expect to die in that period. That is what the ONS hard numbers on deaths from all causes show. It is what you ignore entirely. Sure you will talk about one specific week where 161 less people died in that week than expected whilst ignoring the weeks where 12,000 people more than expect died.

So let's talk about the ONS total death all causes figures. There will be a net figure, positive or negative, for the year 2020, for total deaths all causes vs 5 year average. I have given you my prediction for what this number will be by year end. It will be 40k plus. That is by the end of the year 40 thousand more people than expected will have died. That will be more excess deaths than seen in the previous 10 years, with seasonal flu spikes and all. Now if your 25 june claim that the virus was rapidly dying out everywhere is correct and your view that most who have died were people who were going to dying within 6 months anyway is correct that figures should be close to zero. That is why you will not give your prediction. It is whay I knew you would not give your prediction. Because you KNOW that you were just totally and utterly wrong when you claimed 25 june the virus was rapidly dying out almost everywhere and you know that has been shown already and you know you will have no get out on a hard number like total deaths all causes. You will only give a prediction on the soft number of how many people died of coid because you know if it proves to be badly wrong you can just fall back on 'yeah but they attributed deaths to covid that were not from covid'. You NEED that softness and potential get out clause and you know it. Stop being such a pussy and show some conviction in what you claim to believe in and make a prediction.

By year end the ONS stats on total deaths all causes will show that in 2020 more people than expect died from all causes than any year in the previous ten. That is my prediction. At least 40k more deaths by year end than expected in England and Wales. More than any previous year in the last 10 (and probably in last 50-100). So more than seen with regular periodic flu spikes.

The simplest way to judge whether we have an exceptionally lethal disease is to look at the death rates. Are more people dying than we would expect to die anyway in a given week or month?"


Give us your prediction your coward.

erolz66 » Sun Apr 19, 2020 10:53 am wrote:nice one CRG. not a trump fan myself but am and always have been a fan of truth and accuracy before and above anything else. something I think some others here could consider perhaps.


Yep true then and still true now.
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Re: Still no confirmed Corona cases in Cyprus, but for how l

Postby erolz66 » Wed Aug 05, 2020 3:29 pm

cyprusgrump wrote:What is that noise I can hear...? :?

Oh... :roll:


What you must be hearing is this classic example of moving goalpost from YOU :lol:

cyprusgrump Tue Aug 04, 2020 4:31 pm wrote:See you in 40 days... Care to have a guess as to the daily death figures then...? Around September 13th...? I'd guess 3,000ish...


cyprusgrump Tue Aug 04, 2020 5:57 pm wrote: I guess <4,000 deaths...


A goalpost movement of 1000 in the space of less than a couple of hours :lol: Leaving you with a prediction that itself if correct will again just prove that you claim on 25th June that 'the virus is rapidly dying out almost everywhere' was totally and utterly WRONG. :lol:

The virus was NOT rapidly dying out almost everywhere back as far as June 25. We now KNOW this was a totally incorrect claim then and if in 39 more days the global daily covid death rate is 4k as you 'predict' (after having moved your goalpost from 3kish) we will know that it is STILL incorrect then. You were just plain WRONG. You will not admit that no matter how blatant and obvious it is that you were wrong. You will just keep claiming others will be shown wrong in the future even as you have ALREADY been shown to have been totally and utterly wrong yourself.

Your original prediction was "3,000ish". Mine was 4k or higher. So let's see on 13th September who is most wrong or right.

I also predict 13th September total confirmed positives will 26 million or more. You are too pussy to offer your prediction

I also predict by year end excess deaths in ONS figures for England and Wales will be 40k or more (higher than anything in previous 10 years). You are too pussy to offer your prediction.
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Re: Still no confirmed Corona cases in Cyprus, but for how l

Postby erolz66 » Wed Aug 05, 2020 3:31 pm

To recap.

It has already been shown that your claim of the 25 June was totally and utterly wrong.
I have given my prediction on global covid daily deaths by 13th September (4k or more) and you have given yours (3000ish)
I have given my prediction on global confirmed positives by 13th September (26 million or more). You are too pussy to give yours.
I have given my prediction on year end excess deaths in ONS stats (40k or more). You are too pussy to give yours.
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Re: Still no confirmed Corona cases in Cyprus, but for how l

Postby cyprusgrump » Wed Aug 05, 2020 4:02 pm

ErLOLZ you are mental... :lol:

3,000 was a typo, I changed it... You knew that but WTF eh, any port in a storm... :wink:

As for the rest, we can see (and remember) what you posted... You are now moving the goalposts like Kiks...

I'm not going to waste time arguing with you, I'll just post the stuff that makes your position look ridiculous on a regular basis... Trust me, I will... :D

My prediction is <4,000 World-Wide deaths by the end of August... I'm on safe ground really, if it is 10,000 then hands up I am wrong... If it is even slightly under 5,000 then (by Kiks rules) the trend is in my direction and it is a goal for me! :lol:

Oh and I was right about the virus dying out... Look at the numbers, one day you'll have to admit that too... :wink:
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Re: Still no confirmed Corona cases in Cyprus, but for how l

Postby cyprusgrump » Wed Aug 05, 2020 4:05 pm

erolz66 wrote:To recap.

It has already been shown that your claim of the 25 June was totally and utterly wrong.
I have given my prediction on global covid daily deaths by 13th September (4k or more) and you have given yours (3000ish)
I have given my prediction on global confirmed positives by 13th September (26 million or more). You are too pussy to give yours.
I have given my prediction on year end excess deaths in ONS stats (40k or more). You are too pussy to give yours.



PS this is a 'keeper' like CoCo's predictions... I completely guarantee this will come back to haunt you... :wink:
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