Cyprus-Forum.com

[erolz66]

But testing obviously discovers more cases, .....

If the virus had been rapidly dying out since 25 June, as you claimed, then you would see less confirmed positives even as you test more. Of course this is not happening because the virus has not been rapidly dying out almost everywhere since 25 June.

In any case not only has the global rate of new cases increased since you declared the virus was rapidly dying out almost everywhere, the rate of covid deaths has ALSO gone up since then.

Conclusion - your claim was totally and utterly wrong and the numbers show this unequivocally.

Conclusion: You're an idiot fanatically obsessed with your own narrative and unable to comprehend any alternative views or information...

6 weeks ago you claimed the virus was rapidly dying out almost everywhere. Since then the global daily rate of new positives and the global daily rate of deaths have both gone up. You can not have an 'alternative view' or different perspective on this. It is now just historical fact. It is a matter of historical record that you were wrong. Badly wrong. Fundamentally wrong. Fact.

Having been so fundamentally wrong yourself you then went on posting stuff like

Fancy a guess on the end of August 7-Day Moving Average Daily Deaths...? I'm guessing below 5,000...

A number that is HIGHER than it was on the 25 June , when you claimed the virus was rapidly dying out almost everywhere

and stuff like

You're going to look a right dick when this pans out...

Well you ALREADY look a right dick because since your claim that the virus was rapidly dying out the global rate of new infections and deaths are both HIGHER than then and you are now even predicting that in the future the global daily deaths (7 day average) will STILL be HIGHER than it was when you made your claim.

[erolz66]

Basically I only started posting again because of your sheer arrogance and hubris in taunting others about how wrong they will be shown to be in the future when you have already been shown to have been so totally and utterly wrong yourself. As long as you keep crowing about how much you are going to enjoy telling others, in the future, how wrong they were, then the chances are I will keep pointing out how wrong you have ALREADY been shown to have been yourself. Simple really.

[erolz66]

When the virus dies out (as it is doing rapidly almost everywhere)

24 June 2020

7 day average for daily global confirmed positives - 154,472
7 day average for daily global deaths - 4813

August 3rd (41 days on)

7 day average for daily global confirmed positives - 256,363 (65% increase vs 24 June)
7 day average for daily global deaths - 5653 (17.45% increase vs 24 June)

Today (45 days on)

7 day average for daily global confirmed positives - 254,222 (64% increase vs 24 June)
7 day average for daily global deaths - 5857 (21.69% increase vs 24 June)

[Paphitis]

Trump and CG somehow think that increased testing causes new cases, instead of believing that increased testing discovers more cases which are already there to be discovered. If there were no tests done the virus will not disappear. In actual fact, the virus would spread much faster with no testing.

To restate, by not having pregnancy tests does not stop babies from being born!

He could be right and this could be the case in many countries in the world that do not have mass testing in place.

Eventually, I think all of us will need to be tested to see if we got it or had it in the last and they need to do a scientific analysis on whether humans are able to develop immunity. I foresee this to be the only way out.

I’m inclined to believe that hundreds of thousands more if not millions of people have had it but never been tested. In other words, you and I could have had a very mild form and not know it or even feel it.

[repulsewarrior]

...i suspect that the number, when all is said and done, of infections will be the same, with or without all this effort.

...it is not hard to see, as well, that our efforts have succeeded in reducing the overwhelming nature of this virus, where the efforts to stop the spread are taken seriously.

...the tests themselves are not reliable, nor are they easily (and cheaply) available, this too, is a problem.

[cyprusgrump]

The real Covid-19 threat

A recent government report suggests 200,000 people might die because of delays in healthcare and the economic and social consequences of the Covid-19 lockdown. NHS figures show that urgent cancer referrals made by English GPs are down by 47 per cent in May compared with last year; 26,000 people are waiting more than a year for routine operations, and more than half a million people have been waiting over six weeks for essential tests.

[Paphitis]

Happy to report, although it might be early, that Melbourne may have turned the corner. Too early to relax though as it could be false security.

But for now, new cases seem to have stabilised in the 4 hundreds.

If this is some kind of recovery, it has come with heavy restrictions on the population and a massive cost to jobs and prosperity. The amount of economic destruction is akin to a world war. Has it been warranted? Only time will tell.

Right now, Victoria is under strict lock down for the next 4 weeks. It may be extended by another 2 or 4 weeks. People unable to travel more than 5 kms from their suburb. Complete curfew from 8 pm. No one on the streets. It’s a ghost town. No cars, people or shops open. No one has seen Melbourne like this ever. Normally, it’s a lovely city, full of life and vibrancy. Very fashionable, and cosmopolitan. A truly wonderful city like no other. But not so at the moment.

The only cars you will see on the street are police, and emergency services. Or people going to and from work.

The vision of Melbourne at night seems apocalyptic.

There has been some civil disobedience by some conspiracists, sovereign activists, and they even announced an anti restrictions protests. The response by the police was that if the protest does proceed, the protesters will be arrested and they also said they most certainly do have the power to arrest people for violating Department of Health directives in the interest of public safety. Anyone caught violating them will face the full brunt of the law.

There were visions the other day of a women who wasn’t wearing a mask claiming it was her right being arrested. They held her down with her hands behind her back and was dragged off to an awaiting car. Apparently another one who challenged the police with her sovereign rights and threatened them with legal action as all arrests are false and violate their rights. Well it doesn’t seem the police agree with that.

Everyone is starting to get sick of these smart arses challenging police now. They are just adding to the problems and their manners are appalling. There are ways to put a grievance forward to the Police Ombudsman if you have one, but being a rude toga then imbecile is uncalled for.

Plus the fines now have been increased to $5000 dollars. That’s a fairly big fine.

So let’s say Melbourne gets back on tract. What then? When can everything go back to normal? Can this situation continue indefinitely? What’s the end game? There seems to be no plan.

[erolz66]

Happy to report, although it might be early, that Melbourne may have turned the corner. Too early to relax though as it could be false security.

But for now, new cases seem to have stabilised in the 4 hundreds.

If this is some kind of recovery, it has come with heavy restrictions on the population and a massive cost to jobs and prosperity. The amount of economic destruction is akin to a world war. Has it been warranted? Only time will tell.

Right now, Victoria is under strict lock down for the next 4 weeks. It may be extended by another 2 or 4 weeks. People unable to travel more than 5 kms from their suburb. Complete curfew from 8 pm. No one on the streets. It’s a ghost town. No cars, people or shops open. No one has seen Melbourne like this ever. Normally, it’s a lovely city, full of life and vibrancy. Very fashionable, and cosmopolitan. A truly wonderful city like no other. But not so at the moment.

The only cars you will see on the street are police, and emergency services. Or people going to and from work.

The vision of Melbourne at night seems apocalyptic.

There has been some civil disobedience by some conspiracists, sovereign activists, and they even announced an anti restrictions protests. The response by the police was that if the protest does proceed, the protesters will be arrested and they also said they most certainly do have the power to arrest people for violating Department of Health directives in the interest of public safety. Anyone caught violating them will face the full brunt of the law.

There were visions the other day of a women who wasn’t wearing a mask claiming it was her right being arrested. They held her down with her hands behind her back and was dragged off to an awaiting car. Apparently another one who challenged the police with her sovereign rights and threatened them with legal action as all arrests are false and violate their rights. Well it doesn’t seem the police agree with that.

Everyone is starting to get sick of these smart arses challenging police now. They are just adding to the problems and their manners are appalling. There are ways to put a grievance forward to the Police Ombudsman if you have one, but being a rude toga then imbecile is uncalled for.

Plus the fines now have been increased to $5000 dollars. That’s a fairly big fine.

So let’s say Melbourne gets back on tract. What then? When can everything go back to normal? Can this situation continue indefinitely? What’s the end game? There seems to be no plan.

Erolz!

The real success here is Australia. 100 deaths in total and 7000 detected cases and only 600 active cases as of today.

I thought I would just add that for you because you seem to have disagreed when I was telling you a few months ago when Australia was flattening the curve.

Both have not had a general lock down.

I don't ever want to see such an over reaction ever again.

There really is no treason to continue with any restrictions now, apart from restricting international travel. We should be moving on back to as much normality as possible. If there is a second wave, then it becomes obvious to me that lock downs are NOT the solution and that perhaps Sweden was right all along.

[cyprusgrump]

Basically I only started posting again because of your sheer arrogance and hubris in taunting others about how wrong they will be shown to be in the future when you have already been shown to have been so totally and utterly wrong yourself. As long as you keep crowing about how much you are going to enjoy telling others, in the future, how wrong they were, then the chances are I will keep pointing out how wrong you have ALREADY been shown to have been yourself. Simple really.

I don't care why you came back sweet pea - it is much more fun with your pages of hysterical rants on the board...

...not that I read them obviously...

In time, you'll be proven as wrong as Kiks - of course he just shifted the goalposts from 'numbers' to 'trends' and I don't doubt you'll do the same...

[cyprusgrump]

Smoking and COVID-19 - the evidence gets stronger

Fascinating stuff!

In the last week, the largest observational study yet conducted found that smokers (in Mexico) were 23 per cent less likely to test positive for COVID-19. This is in line with the results of an ongoing meta-analysis by some researchers who would clearly prefer the hypothesis to be disproved but who nevertheless have found a 26 per cent reduction in infection risk for current smokers.

A study published in the Lancet a couple of weeks ago looked at the factors associated with COVID-19 caseloads at the national level. It found that countries with higher rates of smoking tended to have lower rates of Covid infection.

And a newly published prospective study of nearly 20,000 Covid cases tells a familiar story. Your chances of ending up in intensive care with the virus are increased if you are male, non-white, from a low income area, obese ... or a nonsmoker.

Don't give up yet GR!