Cyprus-Forum.com

[Bananiot]

No way the plan will be put to a referendum "as is". This is a naive argument and the big players who seek a solution are not about to throw everything into chaos. The plan will be touched upon and mainly the worries expressed by AKEL will be addressed. Turkey will make some concessions too, perhaps more land. Some aspects of the EU may be put into it and we will be called upon to vote again. The aim will be to find a solution before October the 3rd 2005. If a solution is not found by then it can wait for another 15 or 20 years when Turkey is accessed. By then, the problem would have solved itself. I hear the noises made by AKEL and these point out to a new initiative. I think the time is ripe for AKEL to play its hand and do exactly what it promised. To cement the "yes" because now this is finally the very last opportunity to avoid partition.

[-mikkie2-]

Turkcyp,

Assuming that solution of the Cyprus problem will be linked to the entry of Turkey to the EU in 10 years time is a false hope.

Turkish entry is in no way guaranteed as the EU Summit conclusions clearly state.

For the TC's to live in hope for this scenario will eventually spell the end of the TC community in Cyprus.

[turkcyp]

Turkcyp,

Assuming that solution of the Cyprus problem will be linked to the entry of Turkey to the EU in 10 years time is a false hope.

Turkish entry is in no way guaranteed as the EU Summit conclusions clearly state.
.

Dear mikkie2,

My rationale is very simple. I believe at the current situation there is no incentive for either Turkey or RoC to solve the Cyprus problem.
- Turkey will not solve Cyprus problem because of last minute surprise veto for his EU membership from any country (can be France, Austria, RoC). I do not believe it is Turkey’s best in interest to give up it obtained advantages in Cyprus before obtaining full membership. Especially after the last week, after France and Austria said that they will put Turkish membership into referendum, Turkey is increasingly becoming more suspicious of EUs intentions of letting her in one day. So why would they give up their obtained advanatges until the last minute? I would not.
- RoC will not solve Cyprus because they know that they can keep getting little by little from Turkey along the 10 year accession course, through the threat of veto. And at the end veto the whole thing if RoC is not recognized, and Turkish army is still in Cyprus. It is to the best interest of RoC not to find a federal solution to island as proposed by Annan Plan or any similar plan. They can get what they want in the future fully instead of a compromised solution like Annan Plan.

For the TC's to live in hope for this scenario will eventually spell the end of the TC community in Cyprus.

I do not buy this argument. TC community ( I am not including the settlers) on the island is growing everyday, despite the negative effects of emigration to overseas. Things fro TCs improved dramatically after 1974 until 90s, at which time economy and everything started going bad again. But since this Annan Plan first appeared on the radar scene, and since the TC community changed its internal political dynamics in the last 3 years, things started improving again. I do not know how long these improvements is going to last, but I do not like to be pessimist.

I am not even pessimist even if Turkey recognizes RoC today, withdrew all its troops, and all the settlers, (in short maximalist ideal for GCs) in that scenario, TCs will have to turn back to 1960 constitution and will try to get their rights from that constitution. Annan Plan was quite reducing our constitutional rights from 1960 constitution, but in return was giving us a bizonality. In this respect it was a compromise plan for us. So things will not be so bad after all even at the worst case scenario.

Have a great day,

[erolz]

There will be a new settlement plan. Most probably before Oct 4. It will be based on the principles of the Annan plan. It will have some changes in the details but not the principles.

TC will not be able to say no, because Turkey will make it clear that if we do we will be 'on our own' and we know we could not survive such.

GC will be threatened to not say no with recognition of the TRNC as the main 'lever' used.

EU gets what it wants. USA get what it wants. Turkey gets what it wants. And we Cypriots had better find a way of 'living with' this result, unless we intend to start killing each other again.

[magikthrill]

Assuming the pseudo state was indeed recognized by EU (assuming) couldn't the GCs reclaim their property in the north through European courts?

[Bananiot]

Well said erolz, this is the stark reality. We should keep in mind that the important thing in politics is not what we want but what we can achieve. Its up to us then to make the most of the solution. It is a fallacy to believe that the european courts will solve our problem. It is a political problem and it will be solved by political means.

[insan]

Annan Plan was quite reducing our constitutional rights from 1960 constitution, but in return was giving us a bizonality. In this respect it was a compromise plan for us.

Turkcyp, you keep emphasizing that Annan Plan was reducing TCs constitutional rights. Can you tell us what are those reductions in compare with 1960 constitution? I really wonder...

[erolz]

Assuming the pseudo state was indeed recognized by EU (assuming) couldn't the GCs reclaim their property in the north through European courts?

The threat against a GC no to any future plan will not recognition of TRNC by the EU, but by states like UK, USA, Germany etc etc.

If the TRNC gets recognised as an independent state by nations such as these it will not be part of the EU. It would have to acceded in it's own right and overcome a RoC veto to do so.

You could make claims for your property in the North (provided you can convince the european courts that there is no address to be had through the TRNC courts) and you might be able to get a judgment in your favour. However the EU court would have no means of enforcing a ruling in a sovereign state that is not a part of the EU.

[magikthrill]

But if the TRNC is recognized (EU aside) then Cyprus would never allow Turkey to enter the EU, n'est-ce pas?

[turkcyp]

Turkcyp, you keep emphasizing that Annan Plan was reducing TCs constitutional rights. Can you tell us what are those reductions in compare with 1960 constitution? I really wonder...

Dear Insan,

In simple terms, ( if you want I can provide point by point as well)
- In 1960 constitution VP had veto rights now this is diluted in the 6 member council
- In 1960 constitution TC representatives had sort of veto rights in the parliament on certain issues because there were requirements of separate majorities. This is also is diluted by the concept of special majority voting in Annan Plan.
- In 1960 the ratio was 70-30. This ratio does not exist anymore. (Although I agree this was not a fair right for us given we were only 18%, and I have no problem loosing this, but nevertheless it was a right)
- There were explicit guarantees of security from Turkey this does is very much diluted in Annan Plan,

Of course in 1960 there was no bizonality and this is the plus of Annan Plan, (but even this bizonality is very much diluted). That is why I said it was a compromise on our parts.