Cyprus-Forum.com

[Piratis]

The Turks before the 17th were saying that they will not recognize Cyprus directly or indirectly. They didn't get what they wanted.

They will have to extent the customs union to include Cyprus, and this is (either they like it or not) an indirect de facto recognition of RoC.

There is no doubt that Cyprus is in a stronger position than it was before May 2004. This is why they were rushing to "solve" the Cyprus problem before May. Because this way they could gain the most.
Now we are in a relatively stronger position and they will have to agree on changes to the Annan plan that they didn't accept before.

Now why do you think they are rushing again?
Because they know that the longest they wait the worst it becomes for them.

It is clear already that what Bananiot and his like were threatening us before was false. Saying "no" was not the "end" as they claimed and any future plan will in fact be better, and not worst as they were threatening.

[insan]

they will have to agree on changes to the Annan plan that they didn't accept before.

Keep dreaming Piratis... Turkey only can agree upon the changes that are feasible, rational and justifiable. Although these concepts are relative, what's feasible, rational and justifiable will be determined through the next coming negotiations process, by all relevant parties. And don't forget that the new world conjuncture will have also been taken into consideration when they have negotiated on what improvements on Annan Plan can be feasible, rational and justifiable...


It is a well known fact that, the new world conjuncture gives Turkey a good card to play against the ones who are trying to kick her out of the game or push her to second plan. But be sure of that, Turkey and her genuine friends will never let this happen.

So, keep dreaming that they would have to agree on changes to the Annan plan that they didn't accept before. Then Hellens will be the sole ruler of Cyprus. As I said it before, the ones who dream of this will wake up with broken dreams...

[Piratis]

If they will not accept things that they didn't accept before then there will be no new plan.

I didn't say that now the changes will be a lot. But even now Turkey will have to accept some things that they didn't accept before.

[erolz]

Actually in this issue I agree with you Piratis.

Papadopolus took a gamble that by saying no to the Annan plan, they would secure a route to a new plan that would have more 'concessions' to GC concerns and demands. I think he has won that gamble.

My concern however is at what price has this won gamble come. What damage has it done to the chance of the two communites really working togeather after any solution. I also have concerns as to what effect having won this gamble will have on his position in the future. Will it make him more willing to risk such a gamble once again (and at ineveitably less favourable odds this time round)?

My personal opinion is that the extra gains that result from this 'gambling' strategy in terms of concession will not be 'worth it' when measured against the damage such a strategy inevitable has on both his future conduct on the next round of negotiations and on the 'atmosphere' in which we may end up trying to live with and implement any soloution if such is found.

In terms of analogy it is like a man playing russian roulette. The first time the chamber was empty. Arguments are then made that playing russian roulette was good startegy, because the players head was no blown off. Arguments are then extended that 'it worked the last time' so let us play again (and even with less empty chambers in the gun).

[Piratis]

I do not agree that Papadopoulos has gambled. He had a choice of shouting Cyprus with a gun which had half chambers empty, or shooting with a gun that was full (Annan plan). The dysfunctional partition plan was a certain death. You gamble when you have a choice. In April they simply didn't give us any choice, except if you consider suicide a choice.

[turkcyp]

Actually in this issue I agree with you Piratis.

Papadopolus took a gamble that by saying no to the Annan plan, they would secure a route to a new plan that would have more 'concessions' to GC concerns and demands. I think he has won that gamble.

My concern however is at what price has this won gamble come. What damage has it done to the chance of the two communites really working togeather after any solution. I also have concerns as to what effect having won this gamble will have on his position in the future. Will it make him more willing to risk such a gamble once again (and at ineveitably less favourable odds this time round)?

I agree with Piratis too here,

GCs are in no hurry to solve the Cyprus problem and being a EU member gave them an extra card to play with .

But what I do not agree with him is that Turkey is no hurry to solve the problem as well. Cyprus will not be an issue after 3rd of October. After 3rd of October every time RoC brings the Cyprus issue, Turkey will refuse and her EU colleagues at one point will be so sick of RoC using this card will side with Turkey and say “Let’s deal with Turkey’s other accession issues, like “free movement of labor, largeness of agricultural sector, etc. etc” which are easier to agree on and live Cyprus issue to the end.

In international politics, and especially at EU accession talks, usually the deadlocked issues are left to the end the issues which are easier to be solved are dealt with earlier. So Cyprus issue will be pushed back, and back, till it is the last issue on Turkey’s agenda, at which point Turkey will have to force to recognize RoC completely. But Turkey will never recognize RoC until she is %100 sure that she will be in EU, meaning all the other obstacles in her way like “referendums in France, Austria, etc. etc.” are solved.

So in a way I believe RoC will be the only ally of Turkey along the accession course, till all the other obstacles other than RoC is cleared, and they are the only obstacle along the way so they can get everything they want.

And I agree with what Erolz said “Papadapoulas’ gamble this came at a price", which is losing the trust of your future partners to be in Cyprus, TCs. I know many people that have voted for Annan Plan (many in my family) but got quite disappointed with 2 things
1) the refusal of GCs and
2) EU’s reaction to GCs refusal of Annan Plan,

that they have lost the trust to other party so even if the Annan plan comes as is they would vote for “No” this time.

[brother]

THERE YOU GO, EVERYONE LOOKING TO BE A WINNER.

The only winner of all this will be Turkey and maybe the ROC, but us tc are in for many more desparate and hard days.

[-mikkie2-]

Well, it seems that some of you are now going along the same lines as me!

Papadopoulos had to play this game and he has now manouvered Cyprus to a point where Turkey will have to make the running on the Cyprus issue. You got to hand it to the man!

I just do not agree that Papadopoulos has lost or is somehow sidelined. He has come out of the EU summit as being reasonable and responsible, whilst Erdogan has been saddled with the label of 'carpet salesman' with an uncompromising attitude. Much of the negative sentiment towards Cyprus has now been removed.

Turkey will now be desperate to start a new round of negotiations, but the terms of how these start will now be dictated by what Cyprus expects in any final solution plan. The Turks are now banking on the UN to approve the Annan plan via a Security Council resolution. That, I believe, will not happen. The process that led to the final form of the plan cannot be repeated.

So, Turkey threw the ball to the Greek Cypriots after April. Unfortunately for the Turks it has bounced straight back.

Now things will certainly get interesting from now on! First step? Expect the Turks to hand back Varosha very soon....

[insan]

I didn't say that now the changes will be a lot. But even now Turkey will have to accept some things that they didn't accept before.

Actually those things that perhaps Turkey would accept before 24th of April, haven't been negotiated by T-Pap, at all; because he was in dream of so-called European Solution which he thinks a "european solution" will bring the Hellens full control of whole Cyprus. We well know what T-Pap and his friends run after...



Sure, Turkey will accept the changes that are feasible, rational and justifiable but not as how T-Pap and his friends dream of...

[-mikkie2-]

Insan,

You are wrong!

Turkey cannot continue to have a non-conciliatory attitude towards Cypryus. Turkey is on the defensive and sooner or later she will have to change stance. The EU leaders left the summit with a bitter taste in the mouth. They are finally beginning to realise what it means to 'negotiate' with the Turks!

Throught all this process, the TC's are being continuously compromised. How long can the TC's put up with this?